Scenarios to challenge strategic paradigms: Lessons from 2025
Introduction
Since the mid-seventies, scenario planning has entered strategic planning litterature to show how far scenarios are used in organizations [8], [9], how they can be integrated to strategic management [3], [10] and how they can help organizations to learn from changing environments [18], [16]. As a networking process helping the organization to build alternative visions of environment and corporate futures [13], scenario planning has become a social process which implies the collective participation of a variety of actors—top and middle managers, academics, public policy makers. Thus, scenario planning plays a sensemaking role [19] to challenge strategic paradigms of organisations and to rethink their internal and external borders.
Building collective representations of possible futures, scenario planning appears to be very close to producing ideologies, considered as consistent systems of ideas and beliefs explaining behaviours and leading to an action consistent with these beliefs [17]. To explain the dynamics of scenario planning in organizations and its relationships with ideology producing, this contribution will first propose a conceptual framework based on Kuhn's approach of paradigm shift [6] as transposed to corporate strategy. The framework will be in a second part applied to Electricité de France longitudinal case study.
Section snippets
Scenarios versus strategic paradigms: Conceptual framework
Kuhn's approach of scientific revolutions is based on discussing, how the sets of received beliefs and shared assumptions which found scientific communities can be challenged. These beliefs and shared assumptions, accepted and defended by a scientific community, form what Kuhn calls a scientific paradigm. And within this paradigm, normal science deals with «puzzle solving» following rules to find solutions consistent with paradigmatic assumptions, so that accepted beliefs are generally not
Methodology: From a longitudinal study to a theoretic discussion
During the 90 decade, EDF (French public electricity utility) became one of the world main user of scenario planning, both by its internal scenario planning activity with a foresight unit of 10 full-time staff executives and its leading role in creating networks such as «Entreprises et prospective» [7]. This involvment in scenario planning is both linked with new issues from a changing political environment with the deregulation process of public utilities and with an old practice of looking
Conclusion and further research
To challenge strategic paradigms, scenario planning uses primarly trend-breaking uncertainties which can be based on emerging ideologies, considered as sets of beliefs which could explain the action of a group of actors. The creation of these scenarios relies primarily on subjective data, generated when experts and decisionmakers are brought together to compare their visions and beliefs with the future, which can reveal emerging ideologies. In such a process, the most interesting issue is often
References (19)
Integration of scenarios and strategic management: using relevant, consistent and likely scenarios
Futures
(1990)- et al.
The use of multiple scenarios by US industrial companies
Long Range Planning
(1979) Scenario planning as a networking process
Technological Forecasting and Social Change
(2000)Can internally generated futures accelerate organizational learning ?
Futures
(2004)Prospective et analyse de systèmes
(1971)- et al.
Strategic dissonance
California Management Review
(1996) Groupthink
Psychology Today Magazine
(1971)Rethinking incrementalism
Stategic Management Journal
(1988)The Structure of Scientific Revolutions
(1962)
Cited by (41)
Scenario presentation and scenario generation in multi-criteria assessments: An exploratory study
2020, Technological Forecasting and Social ChangeMapping futures studies scholarship from 1968 to present: A bibliometric review of thematic clusters, research trends, and research gaps
2019, FuturesCitation Excerpt :Godet (1982) introduced a comprehensive foresight and scenario planning method: la prospective, later elaborated in Godet and Roubelat (1996) and Godet (2000). Gausemeier, Fink, and Schlake (1998) graphically explained the many phases of scenario development to achieve organizations competitiveness; Roubelat (2006) highlighted the fruitfulness of scenarios in challenging the strategic paradigms of the organization and foreseeing emerging ideologies; Bezold (2010) shared insights learned in his experience in developing organizational scenarios at the Institute for Alternative Futures; and Sarpong and Maclean (2011) showed how scenario planning can contribute to find opportunities for product innovation in product innovation teams. These articles also often include examples of companies that successfully managed to put the scenarios exercise into practice, while other focus on reporting more in-depth case studies of these activities, such as Moyer (1996) who documented a scenario planning exercise undertaken by the British Airways, and Pagani (2009) who used scenarios and cross impact analysis to map the futures of the 3G wireless industry.
Forward looking analysis: Investigating how individuals ‘do’ foresight and make sense of the future
2018, Technological Forecasting and Social ChangeMaintenance in digitalised manufacturing: Delphi-based scenarios for 2030
2017, International Journal of Production EconomicsCitation Excerpt :Specifically, they should be used as support in defining long-term strategies for the realisation of digitalised manufacturing, thereby improving maintenance organisations' preparedness to the disruptiveness of digitalised manufacturing. Despite the concentration of probable scenarios within the internal environment, we also encourage managers to use the results of this study to evaluate and potentially rethink their external environment (Roubelat, 2006). Ultimately, the scenarios will stimulate managers to consider changes that they would otherwise ignore.