Elsevier

Energy Procedia

Volume 76, August 2015, Pages 406-411
Energy Procedia

Application of Stochastic Methods to Double Cyclostationary Processes for Hourly Wind Speed Simulation

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2015.07.851Get rights and content
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Abstract

In this paper, we present a methodology to analyze processes of double cyclostationarity (e.g. daily and seasonal). This method preserves the marginal characteristics as well as the dependence structure of a process (through the use of climacogram). It consists of a normalization scheme with two periodicities. Furthermore, we apply it to a meteorological station in Greece and construct a stochastic model capable of preserving the Hurst-Kolmogorov behaviour. Finally, we produce synthetic time-series (based on aggregated Markovian processes) for the purpose of wind speed and energy production simulation (based on a proposed industrial wind turbine).

Keywords

hourly wind speed
double cyclostationarity
stochastic modelling
Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics
climacogram
uncertainty-bias
wind turbine

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Peer-review under responsibility of the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences.