Using natural laboratories to study evolution to global warming: contrasting altitudinal, latitudinal, and urbanization gradients

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cois.2019.06.001Get rights and content

Highlights

  • Spatial gradients are powerful natural laboratories for gradual thermal evolution.

  • Space-for-time substitutions (SFTSs) can predict evolution under global warming.

  • Urbanization, latitudinal and altitudinal gradients each have strength and weaknesses.

  • Replicating and integrating across gradients strengthens conclusions.

  • SFTSs should be extended to multi-stressor and biotic interaction studies.

Demonstrating the likelihood of evolution in response to global warming is important, yet challenging. We discuss how three spatial thermal gradients (latitudinal, altitudinal, and urbanization) can be used as natural laboratories to inform about the gradual thermal evolution of populations by applying a space-for-time substitution (SFTS) approach. We compare thermal variables and confounding non-thermal abiotic variables, methodological approaches and evolutionary aspects associated with each type of gradient. On the basis of an overview of recent insect studies, we show that a key assumption of SFTS, local thermal adaptation along these gradients, is often but not always met, requiring explicit validation. To increase realism when applying SFTS, we highlight the importance of integrating daily temperature fluctuations, multiple stressors and multiple interacting species. Finally, comparative studies, especially across gradient types, are important to provide more robust inferences of evolution under gradual global warming. Integrating these research directions will further strengthen the still underused, yet powerful SFTS approach to infer gradual evolution under global warming.

Introduction

Global warming can be a potent selective force driving rapid evolution [1]. Evolutionary responses can be crucial for populations to persist locally under global warming as plastic responses are often insufficient to completely buffer global warming [2, 3, 4]. However, demonstrating evolution in response to global warming remains a challenging task: it is difficult to measure natural selection and there is poor knowledge about the genetic underpinnings of most traits [5].

Against this background, we discuss and compare how three spatial thermal gradients can be used as surrogates to inform about the gradual thermal evolution of populations. Historically, altitudinal and especially latitudinal gradients have been exploited for this purpose [6••]. Yet, more recently also the potential of urbanization gradients has been recognized [7,8••]. We will summarize evolutionary insights obtained from these gradients using recent insect studies, and we will compare strengths and weaknesses associated with making inferences based on each type of gradient. Finally, we will discuss recent advances and formulate recommendations in applying spatial thermal gradients to infer evolution under global change.

Section snippets

Space-for-time substitutions

The space-for-time substitution (SFTS) is a common method to predict gradual thermal evolution in response to global warming [5]. The basis for this method is thermal genetic adaptation along a spatial gradient in temperature (Figure 1). This can be demonstrated by testing for adaptive phenotypic differentiation when rearing populations from two regions along a thermal gradient, either in a common garden experiment at the local temperatures of each region or in a reciprocal transplant

Integrating daily temperature fluctuations

Besides mean temperatures, also daily temperature fluctuations will increase in magnitude under global warming [18], and may have strong effects on performance [27,42]. In temperate regions both mean temperature and DTFs increase at lower latitudes [21] (Figure 2), thereby making DTFs an important, yet largely ignored factor in SFTS (Figure 3a). A recent study found that while the direct plastic response to 4°C warming in high-latitude populations of the damselfly Ischnura elegans was a higher

Conclusions

Our overview identified a number of recent insect studies demonstrating thermal adaptation along latitudinal, altitudinal and to a lesser extent the still poorly studied urbanization gradients. This makes these gradients suitable natural laboratories to infer gradual thermal evolution using SFTS. Yet, our synthesis also indicated that thermal adaptation is often but not always met (see also Refs. [32,59]), hence should be explicitly tested when using SFTS. Besides strengths, we discussed

Conflict of interest statement

Nothing declared.

References and recommended reading

Papers of particular interest, published within the period of review, have been highlighted as:

  • • of special interest

  • •• of outstanding interest

Acknowledgements

We thank Arnaud Sentis for the invitation to write this review. His comments and those of two anonymous reviewers improved our manuscript. This work was supported by KU Leuven grant C16/17/002, research grants G.0524.17 and G.0956.19 from the Fund for Scientific Research Flanders (FWO), and FWO scientific network EVE-net. JV is a PhD fellow and NT a postdoctoral fellow of FWO-Flanders.

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    These authors contributed equally to this work.

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