The relationship between the Quasi Biennial Oscillation and Sunspot Number
Introduction
The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is a quasi-periodic oscillation of the equatorial regional wind between easterlies and westerlies in the tropical stratosphere with a mean period of 28–29 months (Heaps et al., 2000). The QBO generally emerges in the equatorial region and moves with a velocity of approximately 30 m/s in the east (negative sign) and 20 m/s in the west (positive sign) (see Fig. 1 and Fig. 2). Although maximum amplitude of the QBO is generally at the level of 10 hPa, it varies from 100 hPa to 2 hPa (Baldwin et al., 2001).
Several solar indices have been developed to describe the amount of solar disturbances occurring at any given time and location. One of the most important solar indices is the Sunspot Numbers (SSN) (see Fig. 1 and Fig. 2). SSN is a solar index that measures the total number of sunspots and groups of sunspots on the surface of the sun. SSN decreases and increases over a period of approximately 11 years (Banks and Kockarts, 1973, Tascione, 1994, Whitten and Poppoff, 1971).
Labitzke (1987) and Labitzke and van Loon (1988) originally discover a signature of the 11-year solar cycle (SC) in polar stratospheric temperatures stratified according to the easterly or westerly phase of the equatorial QBO. Since then, this possible solar-QBO-stratosphere/troposphere relationship has been intensively investigated in numerous observational and modeling studies (e.g., Baldwin and Dunkerton, 1989, Hamilton, 2002, Mayr et al., 2003, Soukharev and Hood, 2001). Salby and Callaghan (2000) suggest that the solar signature observed in stratospheric records, grouped according to QBO phase, may be caused, at least in part, by an 11-year solar cycle modulation of the equatorial QBO itself. Particularly, they have found that the duration of the westerly QBO phase in the middle stratosphere varies in a systematic pattern resembling the curve of the 11-year solar cycle.
Because of the major role of the QBO in determining interannual variability of the stratosphere, such a modulation, if present, could significantly assist in explaining the unexpectedly large amplitudes of apparent solar cycle variations in the equatorial stratosphere (Soukharev and Hood, 2001). This QBO-SC relationship has been re-examined and confirmed more recently by several authors using reanalysis data (Van Loon and Labitzke, 2000, Labitzke, 2001, Labitzke, 2004, Labitzke, 2005, Salby and Callaghan, 2000, Labitzke et al., 2006, Lu et al., 2009). A direct modulation of the equatorial QBO descent rates by the SC has been proposed (McCormack, 2003, McCormack et al., 2007, Lu et al., 2009). However, it is not clear which of these, if any, is the dominant mechanism for the QBO-SC interaction (Lu et al., 2009).
The aim of the study is to statistically define the effect of SSN on QBO. The solar maxima and minima conditions are chosen for investigating the relationship between SSN and QBO. The statistical analysis used in this study, Results and Discussion and Conclusions are presented in Sections 2 The statistical analysis, 3 Results and discussions, 4 Conclusion.
Section snippets
The statistical analysis
In statistics, a multiple regression model is used to collect the observations of well-defined data items obtained through repeated measurements over time. Therefore, this statistical analysis is used to forecast and estimate the possible future cases in the related series by utilizing the estimates for the factor components. In this study, the multiple regression model is used to investigate the relationship between QBO and SSN obtained for solar maxima and solar minima cases of the solar
Results and discussions
The statistical model given in Section 2 is applied to investigate the relationship between QBO and SSN. The monthly mean values of QBO are obtained from Canton Island (02.46°S–171.33°W) for the period of 01/1953–07/1967, Gan Maldives (00.41°S–73.09°E) for the period of 08/1967–12/1975, and Singapore (01.22°N, 103.55°E) for the period of 01/1976–09/2011 (data available at http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de). SSN values in the solar maxima and solar minima periods are obtained for January 1977
Conclusion
In this study, the relationship between SSN for solar maxima and minima and QBO is investigated by using the multiple regression model. It is observed that QBO at 10 hPa is affected more than at 70 hPa by SSN for both solar maxima and minima. For solar maxima, SSN has a positive relationship with QBO at both 10 hPa and 70 hPa. The coefficients of this relationship for solar maxima are observed to be smaller than for solar minima at both two QBO heights. The relationship coefficient at the two QBO
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