Coronary artery disease
How the 2008 Stock Market Crash and Seasons Affect Total and Cardiac Deaths in Los Angeles County

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Various stressors trigger cardiac death. The objective was to investigate a possible relation between a stock market crash and cardiac death in a large population within the United States. We obtained daily stock market data (Dow Jones Industrial Average Index), death certificate data for daily deaths in Los Angeles County (LA), and annual LA population estimates for 2005 through 2008. The 4 years death rate curves (2005 through 2008) were averaged into a single curve to illustrate annual trends. Data were “deseasonalized” by subtracting from the daily observed value the average value for that day of year. There was marked seasonal variation in total and cardiac death rates. Even in the mild LA climate, death rates were higher in winter versus summer including total death (+17%), circulatory death (+24%), coronary heart disease death (+28%), and myocardial infarction death (+38%) rates (p <0.0001 for each). Absolute coronary heart disease death rates have decreased since 1985. After accounting for seasonal variation, the large stock market crash in October 2008 did not affect death rates in LA. Death rates remained at or below seasonal averages during the stock market crash. In conclusion, after correcting for seasonal variation, the stock market crash in October 2008 was not associated with an increase in total or cardiac death in LA. Annual coronary heart disease death rates continue to decrease. However, seasonal variation (specifically winter) remains a trigger for death and coronary heart disease death even in LA where winters are mild.

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Methods

From 2005 through 2008, we obtained annual LA population estimates (population estimates also obtained for 2004 and 2009), daily stock market data (Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, available at: http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/charts/chartdl.aspx?symbol=%24INDU&CP=0&PT=9”>), and daily death certificate data from the LA Department of Health Services Data Collection and Analysis Unit. We analyzed separately all deaths (total deaths from all causes) and 3 groups of cardiac deaths based on

Results

Raw data are depicted in Figure 1. There was marked seasonal variation in daily death rates in LA, which is notable for its moderate weather and modest temperature fluctuations (Figure 2). Death rates were higher in winter versus summer including total death (+17%), circulatory death (+24%), coronary heart disease death (+28%), and myocardial infarction death (+38%, p <0.0001 for each). The shape of the annual death rate curves (“U” shape) has not changed since our initial description of this

Discussion

This study was designed to determine the effect of a stock market crash on total and cardiac death in a large population. Marked seasonal variation was observed in total and cardiac death rates in accordance with previous investigations.11, 12 After accounting for seasonal variation, a large stock market crash did not affect death rates in LA.

These findings differ from other studies. Stock market volatility was reported to increase coronary heart disease deaths in Shanghai, China13 and the

Acknowledgment

Our sincere thanks to Louise Rollin, MS and the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health for helping with data collection.

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