Global and Regional Modeling of Long-Range Strategies in Large-Scale Energy Systems

Abstract

The set of energy models used in the Energy Systems Program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) is discussed. The set of models is designed for studying the long-term, dynamic and global aspects of large-scale energy systems. In particular, the models serve as a means of synthesis for the energy work at IIASA, in developing energy strategies and in evaluating their impacts in terms of the economy and the environment. The critical question considered in the modeling is whether economies can afford, in terms of time and capital, the required energy strategies during the long-term transition to sustainable energy systems. Several of the models used in the set are described in terms of logic, structure, and coefficients. A US case study, the first application of the full set of models is presented. Finally, the intended future work is described, including the plan to have a comprehensive global set of models on the basis of seven world regions with first results by the end of 1978.