The role of spatially explicit models in land-use change research: a case study for cropping patterns in China

doi:10.1016/S0167-8809(01)00184-0

Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment

Volume 85, Issues 1–3, June 2001, Pages 177-190

https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-8809(01)00184-0 Get rights and content

Abstract

Single research methodologies do not suffice for a complete analysis of land-use change. Instead, a sequence of methodologies is needed that link up and integrate disciplinary components over a range of spatial and temporal scales. In this paper, a modelling methodology is presented aiming at the analysis of the spatial and temporal dynamics of land use at the regional level. The methodology explores the dynamic functioning of land-use systems, which is essential to bridge the gap between studies identifying problems associated with land-use change and studies aiming at understanding and manipulating land-use change processes. An illustration of the methodology is given for China where we have simulated a scenario of near-future (1991–2010) changes in land-use patterns. The methodology is adapted to include the nested simulation of different crop types in addition to the simulation of land-cover change. Results are presented for changes in the spatial distribution of cultivated land and special emphasis is given to shifts in the distribution of different crops. In the northern part of the country a decrease in the proportion wheat within the cropping system is expected whereas in the southern part the proportion of rice is decreasing. Corn and vegetable crops are expected to become more important within the cropping system in these parts of the country.

Introduction

The field of land-use change studies is strongly divided by scientific discipline, tradition and scale of analysis. Researchers in the social sciences have a long tradition of studying individual behaviour in human–environment interactions at the micro-scale, mostly by narrative approaches. At higher levels of aggregation, geographers and ecologists have studied land-use change either by direct observation, using remote sensing and GIS or have applied the systems/structures perspective to better understand the organisation of society and landscapes (Lambin et al., 1999).

Apart from these differences caused by scientific tradition and scale of analysis there are also inevitably large variations in research approach because of differences in research objectives and stakeholders addressed. Some of the studies aim at understanding (parts of) the land-use system dynamics by itself, while others aim at intervention in land-use dynamics by means of land-use planning or the designing of alternative land-use systems.

Intervention in the dynamics of land-use systems is impossible without a proper understanding of the driving factors in these systems and their behaviour. Such a complete analysis of systems as complex as land-use systems, is impossible with a single research methodology (Bouma, 1998). Therefore, different research approaches originating from different disciplinary backgrounds and different scales of analysis should not be considered in isolation but should rather be linked and inter-related following a logical sequence (Levin, 1992, Fresco, 1995, Rindfuss and Stern, 1998). This sequence of interconnected methodologies for studying land-use change research problems can be called a ‘research sequence’ in which the different research methodologies (‘tools’) are ordered according to their spatial scale of analysis and phase of research.

To fit existing research methodologies within such a research sequence, methodologies should be designed or adapted so that information and understanding obtained with a single research methodology is complementary to other methodologies operating at different scales and/or in different phases of research.

This paper discusses a research sequence for land-use change studies and elaborates on the use of a spatially explicit methodology for land-use change modelling within this research sequence. This methodology, the CLUE modelling framework (Veldkamp and Fresco, 1996, Verburg et al., 1999a) is designed to bridge the gap between different phases of a land-use change research sequence. An extension of this method, allowing the nested simulation of different crop types in addition to the simulation of land-cover types, is presented. An illustration of the method is provided for the exploration of possible shifts in land use and cropping patterns in China.

Section snippets

A research sequence for land-use change studies

This section gives an example of a typical research sequence which aims to achieve changes in the land-use system by steering specific characteristics of the system to avoid or decrease negative impacts of land-use changes. Fig. 1 illustrates this research chain by providing a logical sequence of the different tools ordered according to their scale of analysis.

Modelling framework

In this study, the CLUE modelling framework is used for the simulation of land-use changes (Veldkamp and Fresco, 1996, Verburg et al., 1999a). This modelling framework has the following characteristics:

•
All simulations are made in a spatially explicit way so that the geographical pattern of land-use change is resulting. The spatial resolution of the simulations is dependent on the extent of the study area and the resolution of data available for that study area. In the present application for

Scenario formulation

A baseline scenario is formulated to represent the most likely developments in demography and demand for land-use types and agricultural products in the near-future, i.e., the period 1991–2010. The demands for the different land-use types are based upon an extrapolation of trends and estimates of land-use change at the national level by Smil (1993) for the period 1990–2000. The resulting land areas of the different land-use types are shown in Table 2. It is assumed that cultivated land will

Discussion

The methodology presented in this paper fits well within the land-use change research sequence presented in Fig. 1. The identified niche of the methodology is regional with respect to the scale of study and belongs to the ‘system description phase’ of the research sequence. It directly links up with studies in earlier phases of the research sequence: trends in land demand, projected within studies that belong to the ‘problem identification phase’ of the research chain, are direct input for the

Conclusions

•
The CLUE methodology can provide important information needed for land-use planning in addition to insights obtained by existing research methodologies.
•
The inclusion of crop-specific simulations within the CLUE methodology enables a linkage of this methodology with crop suitability analysis and linear programming studies that aim at the design of alternative land-use configurations.
•
The multi-scale approach used is useful for studying complex systems such as the land-use system.

Acknowledgements

The research described in this paper is financed by the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO/NOP-II). All persons and institutes who kindly made their data available for this analysis are acknowledged.

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The role of spatially explicit models in land-use change research: a case study for cropping patterns in China

Abstract

Introduction

Section snippets

A research sequence for land-use change studies

Modelling framework

Scenario formulation

Discussion

Conclusions

Acknowledgements

Food Policy

Agric. Econ.

Agric. Syst.

Agric. Syst.

Agric. Syst.

J. Environ. Mgmt.

Ecol. Econ.

Agric., Ecosyst. Environ.

Global Environ. Change

Ecol. Econ.

Agric. Ecosyst. Environ.

World Dev.

Land Use Policy

Ecol. Model.

Ecol. Econ.

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Ecol. Model.

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Ecol. Model.

Appl. Geogr.

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