The value of public information in commodity futures markets

https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-2681(97)00013-9Get rights and content

Abstract

The informational value of U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) corn and soybean production forecasts is investigated for the period 1971–1992. Three tests of informational content are applied. Overall, the results suggest USDA corn and soybean forecasts provide valuable information to participants in commodity futures markets. This value does appear to have declined, especially since the mid-1980s.

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