Elsevier

Environment International

Volume 29, Issue 8, February 2004, Pages 1063-1069
Environment International

Probabilistic indicators of atmospheric transport for regional monitoring and emergency preparedness systems

https://doi.org/10.1016/S0160-4120(03)00100-4Get rights and content

Abstract

In this paper, following a methodology developed within the “Arctic Risk” Project of the Nordic Arctic Research Programme, several probabilistic indicators to evaluate the risk site possible impact on the geographical regions, territories, countries, counties, cities, etc., due to atmospheric transport from the risk site region were suggested. These indicators—maximum possible impact zone, maximum reaching distance, and typical transport time—were constructed by applying statistical methods and using a dataset of isentropic trajectories originated over the selected nuclear risk site (Ignalina nuclear power plant, Lithuania) during 1991–1996.

For this site, the areas enclosed by isolines of the maximum possible impact zone and maximum reaching distance indicators are equal to 42×104 and 703×104 km2, respectively. The maximum possible impact zone's boundaries are more extended in the southeast sector from the site and include, in particular, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, and several western regions of Russia. The maximum reaching distance's boundaries are twice more extended in the eastern direction from the site (reaching the Caspian Sea) compared with the western direction. The typical transport time to reach the southern territories of Sweden and Finland, northern regions of Ukraine, and northeast of Poland is 1 day. During this time, the atmospheric transport could typically occur over the Baltic States, Belarus, and western border regions of Russia, and central aquatoria of the Baltic Sea. Detailed analysis of temporal patterns for these indicators showed importance of the seasonal variability.

Introduction

For planning regional systems of monitoring and emergency preparedness, it is important to know the relative geographical distribution of the risk levels from various risk sources or sites, and in particular, the possible atmospheric transport time from the sources of concern toward the regions of interest. These transport times of major interest include the typical time of transport and the fastest transport from the site of concern toward remote areas. These regions of interest could include geographical territories, countries, administrative units, cities, etc. Among the sources of concern could be possible danger from nuclear, chemical, biological sources, etc. In this study, the Ignalina nuclear power plant (NPP) (55.5°N vs. 26°E; Lithuania), which is the oldest Chernobyl-type reactor, was selected as a risk site (RS), although other risk sites of biological or chemical concern could be likewise chosen.

Information about transport time can help regional authorities and decision makers to plan more effectively the system of operational monitoring and emergency preparedness (i.e., to know when different regions, counties, administrative units, etc., should be ready for countermeasures after an accident/event has occurred at risk sites).

In this paper, the probabilistic method to evaluate the RS possible impact, from the probabilistic point of view, due to atmospheric transport from the site on the surrounding and remote territories is used for such purposes. This method is based on application of: (1) trajectory modelling of atmospheric transport from the site for a multiyear period, and (2) probabilistic analysis of calculated trajectory dataset to build several useful indicators reflecting the RS possible impact. The impact is presented by a set of probabilistic indicators: maximum possible impact zone, maximum reaching distance, and typical transport time.

Section snippets

Methodology

In this paper, we will present and discuss some methodological aspects and interpretation of results based on the application of the probabilistic analysis of the NRS possible impact suggested by AR-NARP (2001–2003), Baklanov and Mahura (2001), Mahura (2001), Baklanov et al., 2002b, Baklanov et al., 2002c and Mahura and Baklanov (2002).

Results and discussion

In emergency response systems for accidental releases of radioactivity, an estimation of the typical transport time, boundaries of possible maximal contamination, and geographically farthest territories reachable by a contaminated cloud during a limited time atmospheric transport from the risk sites to/over a particular geographical territory, region, country, city, etc., is one of the important input parameters for the decision-making process. In this section, based on the example of the

Conclusion

In this paper, following a methodology developed within the “Arctic Risk” Project (AR-NARP, 2001–2003), several probabilistic indicators to evaluate the risk site (RS) possible impact on geographical regions, territories, countries, etc., due to atmospheric transport from the RS region are suggested. These indicators—maximum reaching distance, maximum possible impact zone, and typical transport time—were constructed by applying statistical methods and using a dataset of isentropic trajectories

Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful to Drs. Leif Laursen and Jens Havskov Sørensen (Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen), Ronny Bergman (Swedish Defence Research Authority, Umeå), Olga Rigina (Geographical Institute, University of Copenhagen), Boris Segerståhl (Thule Institute of University of Oulu, Finland), John Merrill (University of Rhode Island, Graduate School of Oceanography, Narragansett, RI, USA), Frank L.Parker (Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USA), Keith Compton (International

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