Impact of the soviet grain embargo; a comparison of methods

Abstract

The 1980 U.S. grains embargo of the Soviet Union was a disruption of the world's largest single bilateral grain flow. We analyze the embargo effects using three methodologies and compare the results. Descriptive statistics tell what actually happened. Time series methods show what prices and trade flows would have been if preembargo trends had persisted. A quarterly Armington model simulates embargo effects holding other structural changes constant. All three approaches confirm that the embargo had little effect on global trade or prices. The comparison of methodologies shows that the three approaches are more complementary than competitive.