A multi-level perspective on the introduction of hydrogen and battery-electric vehicles
Introduction
Personal mobility has seen a tremendous increase over the past century and has become an indispensable element of modern-day society. Much of this is due to the diffusion and improvement of the automobile [1]. Yet, automobile use is not without problems, ranging from congestion to its contribution to global warming. Some problems are specifically related to the use of internal combustion engines (ICEs): emission of pollutants that deteriorate local air quality and contribute to climate change, concerns over security of energy supply, and rising fuel prices. Substituting alternatives for fossil fuels holds the potential to solve these issues [2]. In this area, significant strides have been made with battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs). As problems related to automobile use grow more urgent, the case for radical innovation builds and the large scale adoption of such alternatives becomes more likely.
Although these alternatives are promising, neither of them is technically superior over other alternatives, nor over conventional vehicles. Moreover, technical progress can only provide a partial answer to the question what their future will be. In the field of innovation studies, it is acknowledged that innovation is a co-evolutionary process [3]. Hence, this paper uses the socio-technical scenario approach to study the ways in which BEVs and FCVs might replace fossil-fuelled vehicles [4], [5], [6]. This approach views transitions as combinations of top-down (e.g. climate change, shifts in environmental values) and bottom-up (e.g. technological developments in niches) influences, mitigating the bias towards high-level influences [6]. Furthermore, the approach is aimed at analyzing socio-technical regimes, including actors and their institutionalized relationships. This enables development of scenarios in a broader socio-technical context, avoiding analysis of particular elements in isolation.
Additionally, socio-technical scenarios take into account the endogenous dynamics of change, such as beliefs, expectations, and power struggles. Here, these dynamics are studied by taking the relationship between car manufacturers and consumers as a point of departure. In previous work (e.g. [1]), endogenous dynamics have primarily been captured by analyzing the chicken-and-egg problem [8]. This problem describes the reluctance of car manufacturers to introduce alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) in the absence of supporting infrastructure, and—similarly—the reluctance of fuel providers to invest in infrastructure when no AFVs are available. Although the chicken-and-egg problem rightfully draws a lot of attention, it is restricted to the relationship between carmakers and fuel providers. Yet, other relationships are important as well. The way car manufacturers decide to introduce AFVs and subsequent consumer response is critical to FCV and BEV success, as well as to the success of (technology) policy supporting the introduction. Compared to the earlier exploratory work on socio-technical scenarios, this article is less technology focused; it also provides a more substantiated elaboration of the car manufacturer–consumer relationship [5].
The methodology used in this paper is explained in Section 2. 3 Socio-technical regime, 3.1 Socio-technical system, 3.2 Actors, 3.3 Rules, 3.3.1 Purchasing process, 3.3.2 Variety, 3.3.3 Modularity, 3.3.4 Upgrading, 4 Niche developments, 4.1 Hydrogen, 4.1.1 Niche experimentation, 4.1.2 Actors involved, 4.2 Electricity, 4.2.1 Niche experimentation, 4.2.2 Actors involved, 5 Landscape developments are an analysis of various aspects of the automobile in the current system of personal transportation. Section 3 examines the interactions between car manufacturers and consumers in the socio-technical regime of which the automobile is part. In Section 4, the dynamics of the development of two niche technologies (BEVs and FCVs) are analyzed. Section 5 highlights developments that are external to the socio-technical regime, but can exert an influence powerful enough to fundamentally change the regime. Building on the analysis, Section 6 describes two sets of socio-technical scenarios for a transition to FCVs and/or BEVs. Section 7 discusses implications of the various scenarios and presents conclusions.
Section snippets
Methodology
The link between technology and society is well conceptualized in the framework provided by the multi-level perspective (MLP) [9]. The MLP features an analytical distinction between three levels [Fig. 1]. The middle level, the socio-technical regime, consists of three dimensions: (i) the socio-technical system, (ii) actors, and (iii) formal, cognitive, and normative rules. The socio-technical system comprises all elements pertaining to production (e.g. production system and industry structure),
Socio-technical regime
Three elements make up the socio-technical regime of which the automobile is part—the socio-technical system, actors, and rules that represent institutionalized behavioural patterns [9]. This section will examine each of these elements in turn.
Niche developments
The two niche-innovations considered here are BEVs and FCVs. These both face the following barriers to introduction:
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Chicken-and-egg problem, as illustrated above. Note that the chicken-and-egg problem is less prominent for BEVs, as significant numbers of BEVs may enter the roads without substantial infrastructure investments. Also, electricity grids are typically publicly owned.
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Mismatch with consumer preferences, as both cannot match performance of conventional vehicles on all aspects.
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High cost
Landscape developments
Landscape developments have an impact on the socio-technical regime, but are outside the sphere of influence of regime actors. Three landscape developments are relevant in the present context.
Transition seeds
In the MLP, transitions are initiated by the interaction of developments at the three analytical levels. Linkages between elements at the various levels trigger change and can lead to new configurations. Such linkages are termed ‘transition seeds’ in the socio-technical scenario methodology [7]. The following transition seeds are the basis for the scenarios of the next section:
- S1
Environmental stresses are increasing due to emissions from ICEs. Since the role of emissions in the carmaker–consumer
Discussion and conclusions
This paper has analyzed how the institutionalized relationship between carmakers and consumers can shape a potential transition to BEVs and FCVs. This relationship has led to institutional lock-in [52] of ICE technology. For instance, competition between carmakers drives the increasing variety of models that enters the car market, and is enabled by the symbolic-affective motivations that consumers have for car use. Yet, the resulting fragmentation of the car market complicates an introduction
Bas van Bree holds a MSc in Innovation Management at TU/e. He did his thesis work at Shell Global Solutions. He is now working at the Energy Research Centre of The Netherlands, unit of policy studies.
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Bas van Bree holds a MSc in Innovation Management at TU/e. He did his thesis work at Shell Global Solutions. He is now working at the Energy Research Centre of The Netherlands, unit of policy studies.
Geert P.J. Verbong is an associate professor in Technology and Sustainability Studies at TU/e. His specialisation is in the field of energy systems and renewable energy. His recent publications include a book on the history of renewable energy in the Netherlands (2001) and the Dutch Energy Research Centre (2005). He teaches courses on Technology Assessment, Scenario Methodology, Strategic Niche Management, Energy Policy and Governance in the Science Technology and Society program and the MSc program Sustainable Energy Technology (SET) at TU/e, with a focus on energy systems, renewable energy and energy policy. He is a core member of the Dutch Knowledge Network on System Innovations or Transitions.
Gert Jan Kramer was born in The Hague in 1961. He studied physics at the University of Leiden and obtained a Ph.D. in the area of experimental solid state physics in 1988. Thereafter he joined the Shell Research Laboratory in Amsterdam (KSLA, now SRTCA) where he is now a Senior Research Scientist. Over the years he has worked in theoretical chemistry, reactor engineering, and catalysis. Since May 1998 he is a part-time professor in Hydrogen Technology at TU/e.