Elsevier

Journal of Cleaner Production

Volume 232, 20 September 2019, Pages 30-42
Journal of Cleaner Production

Using comparative socio-ecological modeling to support Climate Action Planning (CAP)

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.05.274Get rights and content
Under a Creative Commons license
open access

Highlights

  • Comparative socio-ecological models to forecast urban GHG emissions developed.

  • Urban development factors omitted in existing CAPs are accounted.

  • Behavioral preference for sprawl and low-density form are drivers of GHG emissions.

  • Growth control and zoning can counteract and mitigate around 20% of these factors.

Abstract

We present a comparative socio-ecological modeling approach to identify possible improvement opportunities for Climate Action Plans (CAPs), focusing on two cities, Chicago and Stockholm. The aim is to provide a tool for capturing and addressing deep-rooted behavioral and institutional preferences that may aggravate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in cities. Socio-economic activities, land use change, and future urban forms are considered and forecast to the year 2040 on 30m × 30m spatial grids. GHG emissions associated with these urban development aspects are calculated and compared between the cities. Innovative policy instruments for growth control and zoning (GCZ) are simulated and tested through the socio-ecological model, to determine their effectiveness when added to other interventions included in the CAPs. Our findings show that behavioral/institutional preference for sprawl, its low-density form, and resultant carbon sink losses are main factors driving current and future residential and transportation GHG emissions in Chicago. GCZ policies are shown to counteract and mitigate around 20% of these factors in the form of future GHG emissions.

Keywords

Greenhouse gas emissions
Climate action planning
Socio-ecological modeling
Land use
Urban planning
Comparative urban study

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