Object-oriented Bayesian networks for evaluating DIP–STR profiling results from unbalanced DNA mixtures
Introduction
The common way to analyze DNA mixtures for forensic purposes is to use the Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) and STR markers [2]. This has proven to be a very successful technique, both for its speed and its high discriminating power. However, besides its many advantages, this technique has also some drawbacks. When dealing with mixtures of two contributors, for example, the method will generally not work successfully if the proportion between the DNA of the two contributors is more extreme than 1:10 [3].1 These situations are quite common, such as in cases of sexual assaults when the victim's DNA is largely predominant, or in case of microchimerism during pregnancy or following organ transplant. To address this constraint, an alternative analytical method has recently been developed and proposed [1]. This method is based on the use of a new compound marker, formed by an STR marker coupled to a marker in which a Deletion/Insertion Polymorphism (DIP) is known to be present.
DIPs as such have previously been discussed in biological and biostatistical literature (e.g., identification and characterization of di-allelic polymorphisms and allelic frequencies in particular ethnies and in natural population [5], [6], [7]), genetics (e.g., identification of DIPs as causes of genetic diseases [e.g., 8]), and forensic science (e.g., use of DIPs for analyzing highly degraded DNA [e.g., 9]). The novelty of the paper here is to present an interpretative model that represents an essential element for rendering the potential of a new compound marker formed by a DIP marker coupled to an STR marker operationally useful for practitioners. The discussion will mainly concentrate on the coherent combination of the advantages of the two kinds of polymorphism, and on how this may be formally achieved through an interpretative model. In particular, this paper aims to develop and describe a probabilistic framework for the assessment of profiling results obtained with this novel typing technique, applied in the particular context of unbalanced DNA mixtures of two contributors. The approach relies on probabilistic graphical models, in particular object-oriented Bayesian networks (OOBNs). The paper also includes a discussion of this framework for two casework examples.
Section 2 provides a short description of the DIP–STR method from a biological point of view, while Section 3 describes the generic structure of the probabilistic model (i.e., OOBN) that has been built to evaluate DIP–STR profiling results. More detailed descriptions of the different structures composing the proposed OOBN are confined to Appendix A. Section 4 presents two casework examples to illustrate the kind of calculations that can be performed with the proposed graphical network environment (i.e., to obtain likelihood ratios for particular DIP–STR profiling results). They also exemplify the flexibility of graphical models, which are readily adapted to different scenarios. The last section presents a discussion and conclusions.
Section snippets
Genetic background
The standard method for the analysis of DNA mixtures relies on STR primers as part of a procedure that seeks to amplify only selected portions of DNA, that is regions where particular STR markers are located. STR primers are only locus-specific, not allele-specific. This means that, as the DNA of both contributors have the same loci, these primers should, in theory, anneal to both the markers of the major and to those of the minor contributor. This is, in fact, what happens whenever the minor
Evaluation of DNA profiling results using graphical models
Given a mixed DNA stain from two contributors, of which only one can be taken as known (say, the victim), and a suspect who shares alleles with the stain profile in some appropriate way, two main hypotheses may generally be of interest if the evaluation is addressed at source level [13]. One, usually that referred to as the prosecution hypothesis (Hp), asserts that the mixture originates from the victim and the suspect (if the case is such that a suspect is available for comparative
General case description and DIP–STR analyses
Suppose a case in which the body of a dead women is found [1]. Circumstantial evidence leads to three suspects: a man and his two sons. Other information supports the possibility of a single perpetrator, and this information is used as an assumption in the subsequent evaluation of analytical results. A relevant blood stain – denoted A here – was collected on the victim's body. Blood of the victim and of the three suspects was also available for analysis. Using the standard protocols (autosomal
Discussion and conclusions
Unbalanced DNA mixtures are problematic for traditional STR profiling analyses, in particular when the proportion between the DNA of the two contributors is more extreme than 1:10 [3]. Cases of sexual assaults (where the victim's DNA is predominant and that of the aggressor is present only as a minor quantity) or cases of micro chimerism during pregnancy (where minute quantities of fetal DNA are present in maternal blood) are typical examples for situations in which stains of this type may be
Acknowledgements
This research was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation, through grant no. 105311- 1445570
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