Integrated assessments call for establishing a sustainable meta-population of Amur tigers in northeast Asia
Introduction
Currently, most of the world's large carnivores are listed as threatened by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and are still suffering population declines and habitat loss (Ripple et al., 2014). The tiger (Panthera tigris) is the most endangered of the large cats (Goodrich et al., 2015), with a total population which has declined from an estimated 100,000 individuals at the beginning of the 20th century to no more than 3500 tigers at the beginning of the 21st century (Seidensticker, 2010). Furthermore, about 93% of their historical habitat has been lost, with rapid land clearing continuing in the new century (Goodrich et al., 2015). In 2010, 13 tiger range countries agreed to double the world's wild tiger population by 2022, a commitment which has received worldwide attention (Global Tiger Recovery Program, 2010). Although countries like India claim progress towards recovery (Sharma, 2019), estimates are confounded by methodological issues (Harihar et al., 2017; Gopalaswamy et al., 2019) and are far from sufficient in achieving the goal of doubling tigers across the range. More ambitious conservation plans are needed.
Four subspecies of tigers occurred in China at the beginning of the 20th century, including Amur tigers (Panthera tigris altaica) with about 500 individuals (He et al., 1997; Meng et al., 1995). Although the Chinese government banned tiger hunting in the 1950s and listed this species as a protected species in 1977 (Meng et al., 1995), tiger populations continued to shrink. By 1976 there were an estimated 151 individuals remaining (He et al., 1997), and by 2000, the only remaining population was an estimated 12–16 individual Amur tigers found along the border with Russia (Ma and Zhang, 2009). Since then, the national Natural Forest Protection Project (NFPP) (Jiang et al., 2017) has led to the relocation of forest workers and the recovery of forests. Assessments of how tigers might recover in northeast China have also been developed, which have mostly focused on the Changbai Mountains of eastern Jilin and southeastern Heilongjiang Provinces (Luan et al., 2011; Hebblewhite et al., 2012; Wang et al., 2016a).
The creation of Hunchun Amur Tiger National Nature Reserve, among others (Shevtsova et al., 2018), improved anti-poaching efforts, and compensation for human-tiger conflicts have further helped to ease the pressures facing tigers in northeast China (Jiang et al., 2017). Consequently, camera trap surveys from August 2012 to July 2014 detected 26 individual tigers in the Laoyeling (LYL) forest landscape in north of Changbai Mountains (Wang et al., 2016b) and the presence of breeding females was also confirmed in 2013 (Jiang and Qi, 2014; Jiang et al., 2017). With indications of recovery underway, the Chinese government created the Northeast Tiger Leopard National Park (NTLNP) in 2016 in the eastern LYL forests, abutting the border with Russia (Northeast Tiger Leopard National Park, 2016). At 14,600 km2, this park includes most of the current Amur tiger habitat in LYL, including Hunchun Amur Tiger National Nature Reserve, and represents the largest protected area for tigers in the world.
Currently, the Chinese government and the public both focus their main attention devoted to Amur tiger conservation on the NTLNP or the extent of the Changbai Mountains (McLaughlin, 2016; Northeast Tiger Leopard National Park, 2016). Meanwhile, there are at least three other landscapes in northeast China which have conservation potential, yet have been only been partially assessed for their capacity to support tigers (Zhang et al., 2013; Li et al., 2016) (Fig. 1). A viable population of tigers is thought to require at least 83 breeding females (Chapron et al., 2008), which is more than twice the capacity of NTLNP based on the average home range size of tigresses in Russia (Goodrich et al., 2010; Hernandez-Blanco et al., 2015). Therefore, it is crucial to assess the potential for connectivity and the recovery of tigers across multiple landscapes in order to achieve a meta-population of sufficient size and long-term viability. Presently in Russia, tigers occur along the boundaries of three of the four landscapes in China, representing a source for recovery (Fig. 1), and tigers have been reported in each of these four forested landscapes in China. However, the area of potential habitat, existing prey densities, and the possibility of connectivity between all four landscapes will ultimately be key determinants in the recovery process and feasibility across a much larger region, and hence, also aid the prioritization of conservation resources.
In this study, information of wild Amur tigers and their ungulate prey were continuously collected throughout all potential tiger landscapes across northeast China since January 2013 through a comprehensive survey method including camera traps, transects survey, snow-tracking and telephone hotline. On the basis of these data, we attempt to ascertain the status of tigers in China, to evaluate prey populations, potential tiger populations, and the needed linkages to Russian landscapes for the creation of a meta-population of tigers across northeast Asia. Following this comprehensive synthesis, we provide clear recommendations for the continued recovery and persistence of the Amur tiger in northeast Asia, especially in China.
Section snippets
Study area
We collected data between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2018 in 4 forested landscapes in northeast China: LYL, Zhangguangcailing (ZGCL), Wanda Mountains (WDM) and Lesser Khingan Mountains (LKM) (Fig. 1). The most common vegetation types in the study areas are deciduous forests of Mongolian oak (Quercus mongolica), Japanese white birch (Betula platyphylla), Manchurian ash (Fraxinus mandshurica), and poplar (Populus davidiana). Mixed coniferous-deciduous forests of Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis
Amur tiger population size, dynamics, and distribution within landscapes
From 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2018, cameras traps operated a total of approximately 2,230,100 trap nights (including approximately 1,384,400 in LYL, 367,600 in ZGCL, 153,300 in WDS, and 324,800 in LKM), and collected a total of 1873 captures of tigers. Most photographs of tigers were in the LYL landscape with an annual average capture rate of 0.14 times per 100 trap nights, while in the other landscapes the capture rates were much lower (smaller than 0.01). At least 55 individuals
Discussion
Previous research involving a similar landscape-scale camera trap survey in LYL between August 2012 and July 2014, recorded 26 individual tigers, indicating the return of this species to China (Wang et al., 2016b). This study also provided a landscape-scale conservation plan to bring Amur tigers back to parts of their historical range in China. After that, increased protection at the national level, such as NTLNP, and international cooperation, have contributed to the overall recovery of the
Conclusion
Our study paints a rough but panoramic picture of the wild Amur tiger population in China based on a comprehensive survey over a period of about six years. Evaluating these data, we have discussed the plight of Amur tiger conservation in China at landscape scales, and proposed priority recommendations for establishing a tiger meta-population connecting all four landscapes in China and with tiger habitat in Russia. It is clear that there is still a long way to go to build a viable future for
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Guangshun Jiang, Dale G. Miquelle, Minghai Zhang, Jianzhang Ma and Jiang Chang designed this research; Jinzhe Qi, Jiayin Gu, Yao Ning, Dusu Wen, Xin Liang, Shuyan Liu, Eryan Yang, Jianmin Lang, Fuyou Wang, Cheng Li, Zhuo Liang, Peiqi Liu, Yi Ren, and Shaochun Zhou all contributed to the data collection work; Data analysis was mainly carried out by Jinzhe Qi, Jiayin Gu, Yao Ning, and Eryan Yang; Jinzhe Qi wrote the first draft of the manuscript; Dale G. Miquelle, Marcel Holyoak and Nathan James
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgements
We thank Kota Ullas Karanth for his valuable suggestions. We appreciate the support of major participating organizations, including: Heilongjiang Forestry and Grassland Administration, Jilin Forestry and Grassland Administration, WCS (Wildlife Conservation Society) and WWF (World Wide Fund for Nature). This research was funded by National Key Research and Development Program, Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China (2016YFC0503200), National Natural Science
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