Abstract
Time-series analysis is a critical task in various fields, such as finance, economics, and environmental monitoring, where data is collected over time. However, many time-series datasets exhibit stochastic variability, making it challenging to identify and characterize patterns accurately. Traditional time-series analysis techniques may fail to account for this variability, leading to inaccurate results. This paper presents an innovative approach that integrates several techniques from statistics, signal processing, and machine learning to provide a comprehensive and accurate analysis of time-varying patterns in data. Our approach includes pre-processing steps to remove noise and outliers, followed by a feature extraction stage to identify relevant features in the data. We then apply a machine learning algorithm to model the underlying patterns and capture the stochastic variability. We validate our method on several real-world time-series datasets, including financial market data and environmental sensor data. Our results show that our approach outperforms traditional time-series analysis techniques and provides more accurate and comprehensive insights into the underlying patterns in the data. We believe that our approach has significant potential for applications in various domains, including finance, environmental monitoring, and healthcare.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
Not applicable.
References
Box GE, Jenkins GM, Reinsel GC, Ljung GM. Time series analysis: forecasting and control. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons; 2015.
Hyndman RJ, Athanasopoulos G. Forecasting: principles and practice. OTexts. Retrieved from https://otexts.com/fpp2/. (2018)
Box GE, Jenkins GM. Time series analysis: forecasting and control. Holden-Day; 1970.
Brockwell PJ, Davis RA. Introduction to time series and forecasting. Cham: Springer; 2016.
Gabor D. Theory of communication. Journal Inst Electri Eng Part III. 1946;93(26):429–41.
Daubechies I. Ten lectures on wavelets. Philadelphia: SIAM; 1992. Retrieved 20 June 2022.
Scholkopf B, Smola AJ. Learning with kernels: support vector machines, regularization, optimization, and beyond. Cambridge: MIT press; 2002.
Lapedes AS, Farber RM. Nonlinear signal processing using neural networks: prediction and system modeling. Technical report, La Jolla, CA, United States. (1987)
Liu F, Xie W, Sun Z. A comprehensive approach for time series analysis based on independent component analysis and support vector regression. Neurocomputing. 2017;227:130–8.
Shi J, Dong X, Li P, Chen Y. A comprehensive approach for stochastic pattern analysis in time series data. IEEE Access. 2018;6:52296–307.
Hannan EJ. (1979). The Statistical Theory of Linear Systems. In Developments in Statistics (Vol. 2, pp. 83-121). Department of Statistics, Institute of Advanced Study, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.
Toker D, Sommer FT, D’Esposito M. A simple method for detecting chaos in nature. Commun Biol. 2020;3:1–13.
Lopes SR, Prado TDL, Corso G, Lima GZDS, Kurths J. Parameter-free quantification of stochastic and chaotic signals. Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2020;133: 109616.
Hashemi MS, Inc M, Yusuf A. On three-dimensional variable order time fractional chaotic system with nonsingular kernel. Chaos, Solitons Fractals. 2020;133: 109628. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109628
Lacasa L, Toral R. Description of stochastic and chaotic series using visibility graphs. Phys Rev E. 2010;82: 036120.
Beran J, Feng Y, Ghosh S, Kulik R. Long-memory processes. New York: Springer; 2016.
da Silva S, Prado TDL, Lopes S, Viana R. Correlated Brownian motion and diffusion of defects in spatially extended chaotic systems. Chaos Interdiscip J Nonlinear Sci. 2019;29: 071104.
Olivares F, Zunino L, Rosso OA. Quantifying long-range correlations with a multiscale ordinal pattern approach. Phys A. 2016;445:283–94.
Zanin M, Zunino L, Rosso OA, Papo D. Permutation entropy and its main biomedical and econophysics applications: a review. Entropy. 2012;14:1553–77.
Weigend AS. Time series prediction: forecasting the future and understanding the past. Abingdon: Routledge; 2018.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
FK, Kamalakannan, and SSA contributed equally to this work. FK and Kamalakannan conducted the experiments, analyzed the results, and wrote the initial manuscript. SSA reviewed and edited the manuscript and helped in the revision process, providing valuable feedback and suggestions for improvement. All authors discussed the results, interpreted the findings, and approved the final version of the manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of Interest
None.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Khan, A.B.F., Kamalakannan, K. & Ahmed, N.S.S. Integrating Machine Learning and Stochastic Pattern Analysis for the Forecasting of Time-Series Data. SN COMPUT. SCI. 4, 484 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s42979-023-01981-0
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s42979-023-01981-0