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Forecasting of maintenance indicators of complex technical systems during storage

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Abstract

Design, production, testing, and operation of reusable launch vehicles are promising areas of development and theoretical research in the field of systems for the maintenance, repair, restoration, and operation of aircraft, including reusable transport rocket and space systems, are relevant. The article is aimed at harmonizing the design solutions of technical systems related to measures for their maintenance during storage. The purpose of the article is to develop methods and algorithms that allow matching performance characteristics and design solutions. The scientific problem is solved by compiling and analyzing the state graph of maintenance models using the Kolmogorov system of differential equations. As a result, the models obtained make it possible to predict the performance of maintenance of complex technical systems during storage and explore the possibility of reducing downtime for maintenance without a significant decrease in the quality of maintenance, namely: to evaluate the optimal maintenance period, to agree on the reserve ratio and maintenance period (costs maintenance depending on the ratio of the reserve), choose the optimal strategy for scheduled maintenance, taking into account the continuous monitoring of the technical condition of the aircraft, evaluate the intensity of failure recovery during continuous and periodic monitoring, and justify the most appropriate ways to improve the quality of service, provided that downtime for maintenance is limited and predict the probability of detecting faults during maintenance.

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Data availability

All data obtained and analyzed during the current study are available from the authors of the work (Gusev E, Pronkin A) upon reasonable request.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Moscow Aviation Institute, 125993, Moscow, Russia

    Evgeniy Gusev & Aleksey Pronkin

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  1. Evgeniy Gusev
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  2. Aleksey Pronkin
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Correspondence to Evgeniy Gusev.

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Gusev, E., Pronkin, A. Forecasting of maintenance indicators of complex technical systems during storage. AS 6, 383–391 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s42401-023-00225-6

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