Abstract
It is unclear how CO2 emissions in the German electricity sector will develop until 2030. On the one hand, the amendment in the Climate Change Act (as of August 2021) aims to tighten the emission reduction targets, fostering the pathway towards a decarbonised energy system. On the other hand, the complex interplay between the main instruments used to mitigate carbon emissions, fuel prices and the latest energy scarcity as a result of Russia’s war in Ukraine generates pressure for increased emissions.
Using an energy system model parametrised to reflect the 2021 energy market situation i.e., before Russia’s attack, our study investigates the possibility that Germany will meet its 2030 climate targets. We then provide a qualitative analysis on how results can change in light of recent events. We suggest establishing a carbon price floor that can be dynamically changed in response to the evolution of other market forces and policies. This instrument would institutionalize a more credible path towards decarbonization and offer investors certainty.
Zusammenfassung
Die zukünftige Entwicklung der CO2-Emissionen im deutschen Stromsektor bis 2030 ist unklar: Einerseits zielt die Gesetzesänderung im Klimaschutzgesetz (ab August 2021) auf eine Verschärfung der Emissionsminderungsziele ab, um den Weg zu einem dekarbonisierten Energiesystem zu fördern. Andererseits erzeugt das komplexe Zusammenspiel zwischen den wichtigsten Instrumenten zur Verringerung der Kohlenstoffemissionen, den Brennstoffpreisen und der aktuellen Energieverknappung infolge des russischen Angriffs auf die Ukraine Druck für einen Anstieg der Emissionen.
In unserer Studie untersuchen wir, ob Deutschland auf dem Weg zur Erreichung seiner Klimaschutzziele für 2030 ist, und welche Maßnahmen die Wahrscheinlichkeit erhöhen können. Dazu verwenden wir ein Energiesystemmodell, das so parametrisiert ist, dass es die Situation auf dem Energiemarkt im Jahr 2021 widerspiegelt, d. h. vor dem Angriff Russlands auf die Ukraine. Ergänzend zur quantitativen Seite liefern wir eine qualitative Analyse des Energiemarktes im Lichte der jüngsten Ereignisse. Wir betonen, wie wichtig es ist, eine Kohlenstoffpreisuntergrenze einzuführen, die als Reaktion auf die Entwicklung anderer Marktkräfte und politischer Maßnahmen dynamisch verändert werden kann. Dieses Instrument würde einen plausibleren Weg zur Dekarbonisierung institutionalisieren und Investoren Sicherheit bieten.
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Notes
For more information on the model see Sgarciu et al. (2023) and https://github.com/BTU-EnerEcon/EM.POWER-INVEST.
Please note that Sgarciu et al. (2023) includes the complementary results of the capacity expansion problem and the analysis of employment effects that coal phase-out has on the Lusatian region.
The sectors included in the legislation are energy, industry, buildings, transport, agriculture, waste and other, land use, land-use change and forestry.
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Acknowledgements
We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the Federal Ministry of Education and Research of Germany in the Ariadne project (03SFK5S0) and DecarbLau project (FKZ 01LA1821A). This research represents a collaborative work between modelling practitioners from both projects and aims to bridge the gap between common research questions from projects funded by BMBF.
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S. Sgarciu, F. Müsgens, S. Osorio and M. Pahle declare that they have no competing interests.
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Sgarciu, S., Müsgens, F., Osorio, S. et al. Is Germany on track to achieve 2030 climate and energy targets?. List Forum 49, 93–107 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41025-023-00255-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s41025-023-00255-0