Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Prediction of flood frequency under a changing climate, the case of Hare watershed, Rift Valley Basin of Ethiopia

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Sustainable Water Resources Management Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Climate change is causing unpredictable fluctuation in the rainfall patterns and, frequent heavy rainfall that led to catastrophic flooding and a significant risk on Hare watershed biodiversity in the Rift Valley of Ethiopia. Prediction of flood frequency under changing climate in the Hare watershed has not been well-studied in spite of the risk it poses to the human environment. Thus, this study aimed to predict flood frequency under changing climate in the Hare watershed relevant for effective flood management and early warning systems. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate monthly stream flow. The model was calibrated and validated for the period of 1994 to 1998 and 1999 to 2001, respectively. The stationarity of annual peak flow was analyzed using Pettitt’s test. Flood Frequency Distribution (FFD) software package was deployed to determine the flood magnitude and frequency curve for the baseline period (1980–2009) and a predicted period (2021–2050). The result of the SWAT model performance evaluation statistics showed a high potential in the prediction of future streamflow. In addition, the goodness-of-fit test result showed that the Gumbel and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) were the best-fit probability distribution for baseline and future flood events, respectively. The predicted annual peak flow results show an increasing trend by 60 and 106% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios, respectively. The future design flood may increase between 6.5 and 119.0% when compared to the baseline period. The study provides valuable information for policy and decision makers during the implementation of different flood events adaptation and mitigation measures for the Hare watershed.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

Similar content being viewed by others

Availability of data and materials

Data will be made available on request.

References

  • Abbaspour KC (2008) SWAT-CUP2: SWAT calibration and uncertainty programs–a user manual. Department of Systems Analysis. Integrated Assessment and Modelling (SIAM), Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Duebendorf, Switzerland.

  • Abbaspour KC, Rouholahnejad E, Vaghefi S, Srinivasan R, Yang H, Kløve B (2015) A continental-scale hydrology and water quality model for Europe: Calibration and uncertainty of a high-resolution large-scale SWAT model. J Hydrol 524:733–752. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.03.027

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Abbaspour KC, Vaghefi SA, Srinivasan R (2018) A guideline for successful calibration and uncertainty analysis for soil and water assessment: A review of papers from the 2016 International SWAT Conference. Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute.

  • Adhikari U, Nejadhashemi AP, Woznicki SA (2015) Climate change and eastern Africa: a review of impact on major crops. Food and Energy Security, 4(2), 110–132. https://doi.org/10.1002/fes3.61

  • Akpodiogaga-a P, Odjugo O (2010) General overview of climate change impacts in Nigeria. J Human Ecol 29(1):47–55. https://doi.org/10.1080/09709274.2010.11906248

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arjumand S (2012) Hydrologic impact of climate change in semi-urban watersheds. McMaster University. https://hdl.handle.net/11375/12243

  • Arnell NW, Gosling SN (2016) The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale. Climatic Change 134(3):387–401. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aung MT, Shrestha S, Weesakul S, Shrestha PK (2016) Multi-model climate change projections for Belu River Basin, Myanmar under representative concentration pathways. J Earth Sci Clim Change 7(1):1–13. https://doi.org/10.4172/2157-7617.1000323

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Benameur S, Benkhaled A, Meraghni D, Chebana F, Necir A (2017) Complete flood frequency analysis in Abiod watershed, Biskra (Algeria). Nat Hazards 86(2):519–534. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2703-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Benkaci T, P. N. D (2018) Flood frequency distribution (FFD 2.0).

  • Billi P, Alemu YT, Ciampalini R (2015) Increased frequency of flash floods in Dire Dawa, Ethiopia: Change in rainfall intensity or human impact? Nat Hazards 76(2):1373–1394. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1554-0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Birhanu D, Kim H, Jang C, Park S (2016) Flood risk and vulnerability of Addis Ababa City due to climate change and urbanization. Proc Eng 154:696–702. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2016.07.571

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bradshaw CJA, Sodhi NS, Peh KS, Brook BW (2007) Global evidence that deforestation amplifies flood risk and severity in the developing world. Glob Change Biol 13(11):2379–2395. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01446.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brocca L, Melone F, Moramarco T (2011) Distributed rainfall-runoff modelling for flood frequency estimation and flood forecasting. Hydrol Process 25(18):2801–2813. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8042

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dessu SB, Melesse AM (2013) Impact and uncertainties of climate change on the hydrology of the Mara River basin, Kenya/Tanzania. Hydrol Process 27(20):2973–2986. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9434

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Easton ZM, Fuka DR, White ED, Collick AS, Ashagre Bb, McCartney M, Steenhuis TS (2010) A multi basin SWAT model analysis of runoff and sedimentation in the Blue Nile, Ethiopia. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 14(10):1827–1841. https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-7-3837-2010

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • FAO (2002) Major soils of the world land and water digital media series. Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations CD-ROM, Rome

    Google Scholar 

  • Faramarzi M, Abbaspour KC, Vaghefi SA, Farzaneh MR, Zehnder AJB, Srinivasan R, Yang H (2013) Modeling impacts of climate change on freshwater availability in Africa. J Hydrol 480:85–101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.12.016

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Farooq M, Shafique M, Khattak MS (2018) Flood frequency analysis of river swat using Log Pearson type 3, generalized extreme value, normal, and gumbel max distribution methods. Arab J Geosci 11(9):216. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-018-3553-z

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Garc AP, Est J, Morbidelli R, Saltalippi C, Ayuso-muñoz JL, Flammini A (2020) Assessing inhomogeneities in extreme annual rainfall data series by multifractal approach. Water 12(4):1–18. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12041030

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • GFDRR (2019) Ethiopia disaster risk management profile: global facility for disaster reduction and recovery. Washington, D.C.20433, USA: World Bank.

  • Githui F, Gitau W, Mutua F, Bauwens W (2009) Climate change impact on SWAT simulated streamflow in western Kenya. Int J Climatol: J R Meteorol Soc 29(12):1823–1834. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1828

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gutman G, Huang C, Chander G, Noojipady P, Masek JG (2013) Assessment of the NASA–USGS global land survey (GLS) datasets. Remote Sens Environ 134:249–265. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2013.02.026

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haregeweyn N, Melesse B, Tsunekawa A, Tsubo M, Meshesha D, Balana BB (2012) Reservoir sedimentation and its mitigating strategies: a case study of Angereb reservoir (NW Ethiopia). J Soils Sediments 12(2):291–305. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11368-011-0447-z

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hargreaves GH, Samani ZA (1985) Reference crop evapotranspiration from temperature. Appl Eng Agric 1(2):96–99. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.13031/2013.26773

  • Hirabayashi Y, Mahendran R, Koirala S, Konoshima L, Yamazaki D, Watanabe S, Kanae S (2013) Global flood risk under climate change. Nat Clim Change 3:816. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1911

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ho CK, Stephenson DB, Collins M, Ferro CAT, Brown SJ (2012) Calibration strategies: a source of additional uncertainty in climate change projections. Bull Am Meteor Soc 93(1):21–26. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011BAMS3110.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang Y, Ma Y, Liu T, Luo M (2020) Climate change impacts on extreme flows under IPCC RCP scenarios in the mountainous Kaidu Watershed, Tarim River Basin. Sustainability 12(5):2090. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12052090

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996, 2007.

  • Jäntschi L, Bolboaca SD (2009) Distribution fitting 2. Pearson-Fisher, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling, Wilks-Shapiro, Cramer-von-Misses and Jarque-Bera Statistics. Bulletin of University of Agricultural Sciences and Veterinary Medicine Cluj-Napoca. Horticulture, 66(2):691–697.

  • Khayyun TS, Alwan IA, Hayder AM (2019) Hydrological model for Hemren dam reservoir catchment area at the middle River Diyala reach in Iraq using ArcSWAT model. Appl Water Sci 9(5):133. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-019-1010-0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Knipe D, Rao AR (2005) Estimation of peak discharges of Indiana streams by using log Pearson (III) distribution. School of Civil Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana

    Google Scholar 

  • Knutti R, Sedláček J (2013) Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections. Nat Clim Change 3(4):369–373. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1716

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krause J, Schütt B, Thiemann S (2004) Landscape characterstics of a Drainage Basin in the Southern Ethiopia Rift Valley. 1st Ethiopia Proceedings Sedimentary Studies in Tropics and subtropics. Siegen, Germany.

  • Krysanova V, Srinivasan R (2015) Assessment of climate and land use change impacts with SWAT. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0742-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lelieveld J, Hadjinicolaou P, Kostopoulou E, Chenoweth J, El Maayar M, Giannakopoulos C, Tyrlis E (2012) Climate change and impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. Clim Change 114(3–4):667–687. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0418-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Loucks DP, van Beek E (2017) Water resources planning and management: An overview. In Water Resource Systems Planning and Management (pp. 1–49). Springer. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-44234-1_1

  • Mareuil A, Leconte R, Brissette F, Minville M (2007) Impacts of climate change on the frequency and severity of floods in the Châteauguay River basin, Canada. Can J Civil Eng 34(9):1048–1060. https://doi.org/10.1139/l07-022

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mat Jan NA, Shabri A, Samsudin R (2019) Handling non-stationary flood frequency analysis using TL-moments approach for estimation parameter. J Water Clim Change. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2019.055

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • May R, Zainol Z, Shukor M, Bin F (2015) Flood frequency analysis due to climate change condition at the Upper Klang River basin. In ISFRAM 2014 (pp. 271–281). Springer. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-287-365-1_22

  • Miao C, Duan Q, Sun Q, Li J (2013) Evaluation and application of Bayesian multi-model estimation in temperature simulations. Prog Phys Geogr 37(6):727–744. https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133313494961

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Millington N, Das S, Simonovic SP (2011) The comparison of GEV, log-Pearson type 3 and Gumbel distributions in the Upper Thames River watershed under global climate models. London, Ontario, Canada: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of Western. https://ir.lib.uwo.ca/wrrr/40

  • Monteith JL (1965) Evaporation and environment. The stage and movement of water in living organisms. In 19th Symp. Soc. Exp. Biol. Cambridge University Press.

  • Moriasi DN, Arnold JG, Van Liew MW, Bingner RL, Harmel RD, Veith TL (2007) Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. Trans ASABE 50(3):885–900

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Musau J, Sang J, Gathenya J, Luedeling E (2015) Hydrological responses to climate change in Mt. Elgon watersheds. J Hydrol Region Stud 3:233–246. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2014.12.001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Muttiah RS, Wurbs RA (2002) Scale-dependent soil and climate variability effects on watershed water balance of the SWAT model. J Hydrol 256(3–4):264–285

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nachtergaele F, van Velthuizen H, Verelst L, Batjes NH, Dijkshoorn K, van Engelen VWP, Montanarela L (2010) The harmonized world soil database. In Proceedings of the 19th World Congress of Soil Science, Soil Solutions for a Changing World, Brisbane, Australia, 1–6 August 2010 (pp. 34–37).

  • Neitsch SL, Arnold JG, Kiniry JR, Williams JR (2005) SWAT theoretical documentation version 2005. Grassland Soil and Water Research Laboratory, Agricultural Research Service, Temple

    Google Scholar 

  • Pettitt AN (1979) A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem. J Roy Stat Soc: Ser C (Appl Stat) 28(2):126–135. https://doi.org/10.2307/2346729

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Priestley CHB, Taylor RJ (1972) On the assessment of surface heat flux and evaporation using large-scale parameters. Mon Weather Rev 100(2):81–92. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1972)100%3C0081:OTAOSH%3E2.3.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Prudhomme C, Reynard N, Crooks S (2002) Downscaling of global climate models for flood frequency analysis: where are we now? Hydrol Process 16(6):1137–1150. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.1054

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Renard B, Kochanek K, Lang M, Garavaglia F, Paquet E, Neppel L, Aubert Y (2013) Data-based comparison of frequency analysis methods: A general framework. Water Resour Res 49(2):825–843. https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20087

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Robi MA, Abebe A, Pingale SM (2019) Flood hazard mapping under a climate change scenario in a Ribb catchment of Blue Nile River basin, Ethiopia. Appl Geomat 11(2):147–160. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12518-018-0249-8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosenzweig C, Jones JW, Hatfield JL, Ruane AC, Boote KJ, Thorburn P, Janssen S (2013) The agricultural model intercomparison and improvement project (AgMIP): protocols and pilot studies. Agric For Meteorol 170:166–182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.09.011

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roy L, Leconte R, Brissette FP, Marche C (2001) The impact of climate change on seasonal floods of a southern Quebec River Basin. Hydrol Process 15(16):3167–3179. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.323

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Salinas JL, Castellarin A, Kohnova S, Kjeldsen TR (2014) Regional parent flood frequency distributions in Europe-Part 2: Climate and scale controls. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 18(11):4391–4401. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4391-2014

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Semenov MA, Stratonovitch P (2010) Use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models for assessment of climate change impacts. Clim Res 41(1):1–14. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00836

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shi P, Hou Y, Xie Y, Chen C, Chen X, Li Q, Srinivasan R (2013) Application of a SWAT model for hydrological modeling in the Xixian Watershed, China. J Hydrol Eng 18(11):1522–1529. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000578

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Singh A, Imtiyaz M, Isaac RK, Denis DM (2014) Assessing the performance and uncertainty analysis of the SWAT and RBNN models for simulation of sediment yield in the Nagwa watershed, India. Hydrol Sci J 59(2):351–364

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Alexander LV, Allen SK, Bindoff NL, Emori S (2013) Technical summary. In Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 33–115). Cambridge University Press.

  • Tabor K, Williams JW (2010) Globally downscaled climate projections for assessing the conservation impacts of climate change. Ecol Appl 20(2):554–565. https://doi.org/10.1890/09-0173.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tadele K, Förch G (2007) Impact of land use/cover change on streamflow: the case of Hare River Watershed, Ethiopia. In Catchment and lake research, proceedings 2nd Lake Abaya research symposium (LARS), Arba Minch, Ethiopia.

  • Tan X, Gan TY (2015) Nonstationary analysis of annual maximum streamflow of Canada. J Clim 28(5):1788–1805. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00538.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteor Soc 93(4):485–498. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Teklemariam TA (2005) Water quality monitoring in Lake Abaya and Lake Chamo region: a research based on water resources of the Abaya-Chamo Basin-South Ethiopia. University of Siegen. https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hbz:467-1040

  • Ul Hasson S, Pascale S, Lucarini V, Böhner J (2016) Seasonal cycle of precipitation over major river basins in South and Southeast Asia: a review of the CMIP5 climate models data for present climate and future climate projections. Atmos Res 180:42–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.05.008

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Uniyal B, Jha MK, Verma AK (2015) Assessing climate change impact on water balance components of a river basin using SWAT model. Water Resour Manage 29(13):4767–4785. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-015-1089-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van Vuuren DP, Riahi K (2011) The relationship between short-term emissions and long-term concentration targets. Clim Change 104(3–4):793–801. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-0004-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang G, Mang S, Cai H, Liu S, Zhang Z, Wang L, Innes JL (2016) Integrated watershed management: evolution, development and emerging trends. J Forest Res 27(5):967–994. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11676-016-0293-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • WMO (2009) Guide to hydrological practices, volume II: Management of water resources and application of hydrological practices. World Meteorological Organization Geneva, Switzerland.

  • WoldeYohannes A, Cotter M, Kelboro G, Dessalegn W (2018) Land use and land cover changes and their effects on the landscape of Abaya-Chamo Basin Southern, Ethiopia. Land 7(1):2. https://doi.org/10.3390/land7010002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yesuf HM, Assen M, Alamirew T, Melesse AM (2015) Modeling of sediment yield in Maybar gauged watershed using SWAT, northeast Ethiopia. CATENA 127:191–205. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2014.12.032

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yisehak B, Zenebe A (2020) Modeling multivariate standardized drought index based on the drought information from precipitation and runoff : a case study of Hare watershed of Southern Ethiopian Rift Valley Basin. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 6(0123456789). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-020-00923-6

  • Yisehak B, Adhena K, Shiferaw H, Hagos H, Abrha H, Bezabh T (2020) Characteristics of hydrological extremes in Kulfo River of Southern Ethiopian Rift Valley Basin, SN. Appl Sci 2(7):1–12. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42452-020-3097-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Q, Gu X, Singh VP, Xiao M, Chen X (2015) Evaluation of flood frequency under non-stationarity resulting from climate indices and reservoir indices in the East River basin, China. J Hydrol 527:565–575. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.05.029

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The author is grateful to acknowledge the National Meteorological Agency and the Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Energy of Ethiopia for their support and cooperation in availing the necessary data for this study.

Funding

Not applicable.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Mekelle University, Institute of Climate and Society, POB 231, Mekelle, Tigray, Ethiopia

    Biniyam Yisehak

Authors
  1. Biniyam Yisehak
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Biniyam Yisehak.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The author declare that he has no competing interests.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Yisehak, B. Prediction of flood frequency under a changing climate, the case of Hare watershed, Rift Valley Basin of Ethiopia. Sustain. Water Resour. Manag. 7, 9 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40899-021-00492-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40899-021-00492-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation