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Solar radiation variability across Nigeria’s climatic zones: a validation and projection study with CORDEX, CMIP5, and CMIP6 models

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Abstract

Harnessing energy from the sun is crucial for locations battling with energy poverty and generation, especially in Africa, where equity in energy distribution and generation is a daily challenge. However, the evaluation and analysis of solar radiation has been limited by the paucity of atmospheric data in the African region. This study used monthly downward surface solar radiation (SSRD) from ERA5 as reference data to evaluate simulations of solar radiation from CORDEX, CMIP5 and CMIP6 models spanning the period 1990−2020 (present-day), mid-future (2020−2050), and far-future (2070−2100) across 4 climatic zones (Coastal, Forest, Guinea and Sahel) in Nigeria. Solar radiation were found to be overestimated in the Guinea and Sahel zones of the country, but fairly good performance were made in the Coastal and Forest zones. CMIP5, CMIP6 and CORDEX individual models all exhibit strong agreement in the projection of solar dimming across the four climatic zones in the mid- and far-future under both RCP4.5/SSP5\(-\)4.5 and RCP8.5/SSP5\(-\)8.5 scenarios. However, under the RCP8.5/SSP5\(-\)8.5 the greatest magnitude of dimming (\(-\,35 W/m^2\)) was found in CMIP6 models in the far-future and (\(-12 W/m^2\)) in the mid-future. The projected solar dimming was also predominant in all climatic regions under SSP5\(-\)4.5 for CORDEX, CMIP5, and CMIP6 models but at a much lower magnitude.

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All data used in this study are publicly available in repositories stated in the manuscript.

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Acknowledgements

We thank the Working Group on Coupled Modelling of the World Climate Research Programme for coordinating and promoting CMIP5, CMIP6 and CORDEX experiments. We thank the different modelling groups for their efforts in generating and sharing model outputs. In addition, the Earth System Grid Federation infrastructure, an international effort led by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, the European Network for Earth System Modelling and other partners in the Global Organisation for Earth System Science Portals (GO-ESSP) for archiving the data and facilitating access. Additionally, we acknowledge the support of the various funding agencies that contribute to CMIP5, CMIP6, CORDEX and ESGF.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Doctoral Research Program-West African Climate System (DRP-WACS), West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), Federal University of Technology Akure, Ilesha-Owo Expressway, Akure, 340001, Ondo State, Nigeria

    Christiana Olusegun

  2. Faculty of Physics, University of Warsaw, Ludwika Pasteura 5, 02-093, Warsaw, Mazowieckie, Poland

    Christiana Olusegun

  3. Department of Physics, Federal University of Technology Akure, Ilesha-Owo Expressway, Akure, 340001, Ondo State, Nigeria

    Olusola Ojo & Samuel Ogunjo

  4. Faculty of Environmental and Urban Change, York University, 4700 Keele St, Toronto, ON, M3J 1P3, Canada

    Adeyemi Olusola

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Olusegun, C., Ojo, O., Olusola, A. et al. Solar radiation variability across Nigeria’s climatic zones: a validation and projection study with CORDEX, CMIP5, and CMIP6 models. Model. Earth Syst. Environ. 10, 1423–1440 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-023-01848-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-023-01848-6

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