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Glacier–glacial lake changes and modeling glacial lake outburst flood in Upper Ganga Basin, India

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Abstract

Glaciers in the high-altitude basins of the Himalayan region are retreating and thinning under the influence of climate warming, resulting in the development and formations of numerous lakes of different types. Some of these glacial lakes are potentially dangerous and may burst and cause huge destruction to the property, infrastructure and loss of lives in the low-lying areas. The present study uses multi-temporal satellite data to analyze the changes in glacier and glacial lakes of Upper Ganga Basin (UGB) over a period of 24 years from 1990 to 2014. Furthermore, we evaluated the probable GLOF impacts of the Unnamed Lake (potentially dangerous) at important sites using the hydrodynamic model (HEC-RAS). The results show that the total area of the glaciers in the study area shrunk by 82 ± 12.7 km2 over a 24 years of observation period. Glacial lakes, on the other hand, have significantly increased both in terms of number and area from 1990 to 2014. The number of lakes increased by 54 lakes (38.84%), whereas area has increased from 2.92 km2 in 1990 to 3.12 km2 in 2014, thus indicating an overall growth of 6.84%. In the worst-case scenario, the breach hydrograph with 75 m breach width (Bw) and 20 min breach formation time (Tf) has been considered for flood routing across the river channel, which gives different peak flood hydrograph and other significant flood wave parameters like water depth, flow velocity and water surface elevation. The resultant flood will arrive at the nearest location (Ghastoli area) located 12 km from the lake site at 1 h and 40 min after the breach initiation with a maximum peak discharge of 1404.56 m3/s and maximum flood depth and velocity of 6.64 m and 2.48 m/s respectively. At the last selected location located at a distance of 55 km from the lake outlet, the flood wave potentially inundates the area with in 4 h 10 min after the breach initiation with a maximum peak discharge of 1078.35 m3/s and maximum flood depth, velocity of 11.93 m and 4.50 m/s respectively. After the analysis of flood hydrographs at various locations (cross-sections) in the downstream region, it was observed that the peak flood and other flood wave parameters were at its highest at the locations with narrow flood channel, while the intensity of the potential flood decreases as it advances toward the lower area with wide river channel. The elevation and slope of the river bed are also key factors that determine the intensity of the flood at a particular location. This study recommends restricting the built-up along the flood channel and to limit the growth of settlements toward ecological fragile areas to lessen the impacts of the various natural hazards.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are thankful to the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for freely providing the satellite data used in this study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Water Resources Development and Management, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, India

    Manish Rawat

  2. Department of Geography and Regional Development, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, 190 006, India

    Rayees Ahmed

  3. National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee, India

    Sanjay Kumar Jain, Anil Kumar Lohani & Gopinadh Rongali

  4. Multi-Disciplinary Centre for Geoinformatics, Delhi Technological University, Delhi, India

    Kailash Chandra Tiwari

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Every author has contributed to the successful compilation of this study. MR, RA and SKJ: conceptualization, methodology, software, writing—original draft, formal analysis. AKL, GR and KCT: data curation, formal analysis, writing—review and editing. SKJ, AKL and KCT: writing—review, editing, supervision. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Rawat, M., Ahmed, R., Jain, S.K. et al. Glacier–glacial lake changes and modeling glacial lake outburst flood in Upper Ganga Basin, India. Model. Earth Syst. Environ. 9, 507–526 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-022-01512-5

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