Surprise As the New Normal Implications for Energy Security

We are living in a world of increasing interconnectedness through digitalisation and globalisation, exacerbating environmental conditions, severe economic challenges, uneven distribution of wealth, and geopolitical crises. The world is a complex system and the rapid change among its sub-systems builds up pressure for any efforts to anticipate change and shape the processes of transformation. Surprise is an intrinsic aspect of change, in particular when it takes place at an accelerating pace with high degrees of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity (VUCA) - or within the condition of post-normality as described by Ziauddin Sardar. Emerging technologies such as AI and renewable energy systems add to the complexity of societies, and thus to the world of VUCA and post-normality. In foresight horizon scanning has much focused on the probable or even predictable -surprise-free developments. More emphasis should be paid on systematic anticipation of wild cards and black swans, and on the analysis of weak signals. Foresight should also focus on discontinuities - broader phenomena and developments instead of single events. Energy is a complex issue. Without energy there is no life, neither biological nor economic. Taking into account the huge ecological and social costs of the present energy system, the need for a new emission-free, cost-effective, and democratised energy system is obvious. An energy transformation to reach 100% renewable energy is envisioned in four transformational neo-carbon energy scenarios. Energy is increasingly a societal and even cultural issue - above all a security issue. As regards energy security, various sudden events and surprises could play a major role. New energy systems themselves, with other new technologies, nudge the world into unknown, discontinuous directions. Therefore, we probe the resilience, anti-fragility and discontinuity of these transformational, societal energy scenarios. The results of a futures clinique where the scenarios were tested are presented. Implications of surprises for energy security, as the world increasingly seeks to move towards a renewable energy based society, are explored.

In the neo-carbon system, everything is produced emissions-free with solar, wind, and other renewables, and synthetic materials from renewables even replace oil.
In the neo-carbon world, everything is produced emissions-free with solar, wind, and other renewables. Energy stored in batteries, smart grids, and synthetic hydrocarbons. Synthetic processes replace fossil-fuel based processes.
In the 20 th century, infrastructure was centralized. In the 21 st century decentralization proceeds and drives peer-to-peer society.

TRAP OF LINEAR THINKING
• The future is often anticipated through trendsthrough things that exist today and are familiar to us.
• Trends are a useful way to anticipate development. We know e.g. with relative certainty the size of global population in 2050.

FUTURE IS NOT EXTENSION OF PRESENT
• Such events that break the conventional linear development paths constantly occur.
• E.g. some surprising chain of events could accelerate the growth of the African economy Ø Overcoming disease burden Ø Enhanced gender balance Ø Rapid and widescale adoption of ICTs Ø International dynamics beyond colonial ties Ø Increasing intra-African trade Ø Slowdown of population growth Ø Uptake of emerging technologies

BAU IS NO MORE SEEN AS THE NORM -> SURPRISES ARE THE NEW NORMAL!
• Surprises and new directions can be anticipated beforehand by identifying and analysing weak signals (initial signs of change, new phenomena).
• Sometimes they are launched by a black swan (sudden, surprising, unanticipated events with radical consequences).
• Weak signals and black swans are rather "uncertain" in anticipation.
• Instead, we can first pay attention to and analyse discontinuities.
• They are not individual phenomena or sudden events, but gradual, long-term and deep change processes consisting of different interlinking trends, weak signals (or new phenomena), and also black swans -> "discontinuity clusters" • The present rise of renewable energy and especially solar PVs is an example of discontinuity without black swan events.
• No longer than 10 years ago almost no one anticipated the rapid fall in cost of solar PVs.
• A major cause for the discontinuity in the price was China -the first country to mass-produce and offer cheap solar PV panels. • Many other trends, converged to tip the solar development off its linear slow path.

Implications of Surprises on Energy Security
As the world increasingly seeks to move towards a renewable energy based society, what implications can surprises have for energy security?

Black Swans Futures Clinique
Discontinuities were anticipated in five thematic fields. These were chosen because of their significance in society & potential for surprises.

Thinking of discontinuities
• What are the latest emerging phenomena on your topic?
• What kinds of impacts could they have?

PESTEC Table method
• Chosen 3-5 clusters were then further worked • What kinds of impacts could emerge from these discontinuities?
• What black swans could emerge?
• How do these impact renewable energy world?

Radical Startups
Society is organised around startups, which serve social and cultural goals besides economic ones.

Value-Driven Techemoths
Large technology companies, with a peer-to-peer ethos, have become "states within states".

Do-It-Yourself Engineers
Citizens have organised as local communities to survive and ecological collapse.

New Consciousness
Shared identities replace individualism. Robotisation and AI have enabled a selfactualizing economy.

CROSS IMPACT ANALYSIS SESSION: QUAN AND QUAL
• Discontinuities emerge from complex interconnections of different developments, issues, technologies etc. -which may at first seem unrelated and insignificant, thus not easily recognised.
• As the world is complex, discontinuities increase and the world becomes more volatile and surprise is the new normal.
• When the world is seeking a transformation towards high shares of renewable energy (a 100% renewable energy society), anticipating vulnerabilities and unexpected events can improve energy security of the