Energy Supply and Vehicle Drivetrains - Quo Vadis?

An important prerequisite for a nation to be economically successful is a highly reliable and cost-effective supply of energy and raw materials. The current and increasingly precarious situation in Germany is a result of the shutting down of conventional and nuclear power plants, the only slowly possible expansion of (volatile) renewable electricity generation, and the reduction or rather discontinuation of electrical power generation using natural gas. In addition to this the estimated increase in annual power requirements from currently 550 TWh to approximately 700 TWh by 2030 is caused for example by the electrification of vehicle drivetrains, heating systems, and synthetic energy carriers.

It is not the installed power capacity of power generation plant only that matters, but the plannable base load and rapidly available peak load coverage. A reliable base load is only possible with coal-fired, nuclear, and hydroelectric power plants. This is the reason why these power plants cannot be completely dispensed with, and they will need to remain available as active reserve capacity in the long term. The average power supplied by wind turbines is around 22 % and that provided by solar plants around 11% of the installed power capacity. The share of weather-dependent electricity generation cannot be permitted to have too large a share for reasons relating to the reliability and plannability of electricity generation, since dark lulls need to be considered.

If one considers the entire chain from production to operation when making decisions concerning vehicle drivetrains powered by combustion engines (ICE), battery-electric (BEV) or fuel cell (FCEV) from the aspect of climate-relevant CO₂ formation, then BEVs do not have an advantage over ICE in the short and medium term with the German electricity mix. Plug-in hybrids are a compromise but are more expensive. The production of hydrogen through electrolysis and the use of fuel cells presumes sufficient renewably generated hydrogen and H₂ filling stations but tends to be more attractive for heavy-duty commercial vehicles. The production of synthetic fuels delivers liquid fuels for ICE and requires large electrical and thermal energy input but can be used either directly or as an additive for the existing and future large stock of ICE. It is expected that in 2030 the share of passenger cars will be in the order of 30 % BEV, 40 % HEV, and 30 % ICE.

It is not reasonable to unilaterally propagate BEVs, neither from the perspective of the development of electricity generation, nor from the high investment costs for new infrastructure and local limitations. We must make it possible to develop different vehicle drivetrains without ideological and political restrictions and to be able to offer them in the market. A CO₂-centric view alone will not achieve the purpose, all aspects must be considered and balanced against each other.