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Trace elements human health risk assessment by Monte Carlo probabilistic method in drinking water of Shiraz, Iran

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Abstract

Risk assessment analysis related to groundwater contamination by heavy metals was performed in the Shiraz city (Iran). We compared the traditional deterministic methodologies with a probabilistic approach based on the concentration of different heavy metals determined from many sampling points. The relationships between the variables by the multivariate statistical analysis were assessed, and the target hazard quotient (THQ) was calculated in children, women, and men groups. Results showed that analyzed water samples were suitable for drinking, although alkaline. Concentrations of the heavy metals were: Zn > Ni > Cu > Se > Co > Sb. The THQ values for non-carcinogenic elements showed no significant risk for population of studied age groups, although a higher THQ value was observed for the water from the northwest and some central areas of city. Mean values of cancer risk for Ni were 1.77 × 10–5, 4.36 × 10–5, and 3.32 × 10–5 in children, women, and men, respectively. The multivariate approach indicated that the carcinogenic risk certainty level was 97.6, 91.2, and 94.3% for children, women, and men, respectively, and the model sensitivity analysis showed that the most effective parameter for carcinogenicity was Ni concentration. The probabilistic analysis also showed the relative influence of geogenic and anthropogenic processes on the quality of the water of Shiraz city. We concluded that risk assessment using a probabilistic approach could be better predictive of chronic exposure to hazardous elements in drinking water, which possibility the implementation of better protective measures than the current deterministic approaches.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Dr. Paolo Carletti for improving the use of English in the manuscript. This research was supported by the Shiraz University of Medical Sciences (23048), and the authors would like to thank the Vice-Chancellor for Research of Shiraz University of Medical Sciences for their financial support.

Funding

This research was funded by Shiraz University of Medical Sciences (Grant Number 23048).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Health, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran

    A. Mohammadpour, Z. E. Doost, M. R. Samaei & Z. Derakhshan

  2. Department of Health Promotion, School of Health, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran

    M. Motamed-Jahromi

  3. Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

    H. Soleimani & A. H. Mahvi

  4. Student’s Scientific Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

    H. Soleimani

  5. Environmental Technologies Research Center, Ahvaz University of Medical Science, Ahvaz, Iran

    R. Dehbandi

  6. Department of Agronomy, Food, Natural Resources, Animals and Environment, University of Padua, Viale Dell’Università 16, 35020, FoodLegnaro, Italy

    G. Renella

  7. Center for Solid Waste Research, Institute for Environmental Research, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

    A. H. Mahvi

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  1. A. Mohammadpour
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Contributions

AM contributed to data collection, funding acquisition, conceptualization, investigation, writing, reviewing. MM-J contributed to conceptualization, investigation, writing, writing the original draft. HS contributed to validation, visualization methodology, reviewing, and editing. RD contributed to validation, visualization, software, writing the original draft. ZED contributed to visualization, writing, reviewing, and editing. MRS contributed to investigation, data collection, methodology, conceptualization, supervision validation. ZD contributed to conceptualization, investigation, writing, reviewing. GR contributed to investigation, validation, visualization, software. AHM contributed to investigation, visualization, project administration, conceptualization, supervision validation, visualization, resources.

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Correspondence to M. R. Samaei or A. H. Mahvi.

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Editorial responsibility: Samareh Mirkia.

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Mohammadpour, A., Motamed-Jahromi, M., Soleimani, H. et al. Trace elements human health risk assessment by Monte Carlo probabilistic method in drinking water of Shiraz, Iran. Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol. 20, 3775–3788 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-023-04815-x

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