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The evolution of non-OECD countries in the twenty-first century: developments in steel trade and the role of technology

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Abstract

This study examines the evolution of non-OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries in the twenty-first century in terms of steel trade and aims to shed light on how emerging/developing countries have evolved since the early 2000s. For this purpose, the revealed symmetric comparative advantage index and the trade balance index were developed for the whole steel industry and some broad product categories. Further, multilevel analysis over time provided important insights into the catch-up dynamics in non-OECD countries, indicating how they have evolved in recent years. The macro-level analysis showed that there were considerable differences in patterns of comparative advantage and international competitiveness between OECD and non-OECD countries. In the twenty-first century, non-OECD countries certainly experienced a steady increase in steel production/exports; however, the results suggest that only a limited number of non-OECD countries improved their international competitiveness. Nevertheless, some seemed to have gradually gained their comparative advantage, albeit marginally. This implies that although the catch-up of non-OECD countries in the international steel market may be progressing gradually, it is still not enough. The micro-level analysis assessed the linkages between technology selection and export performance of major non-OECD steel-producing countries over time. Although the current catch-up of the steel industry in non-OECD countries is limited, the technology selection of steel firms in some countries in the twentieth century and Chinese steel firms’ blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace technology selection in the twenty-first century have significantly impacted their catch-up progress.

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Notes

  1. In this study, the dichotomy between OECD and non-OECD countries is a proxy for the classification of ‘advanced’ and ‘emerging/developing countries’. This is important when comparing the structure of emerging/developing countries with advanced countries (see for example, Chen and Yu (2014), Alemani et al. (2016), Azomahou et al. (2018), and Atakhanova and Howie (2020)). This classification is important to better understand the development of emerging/developing countries in the global steel industry (Sekiguchi 2019). This study sheds light on countries for which production data by processes were listed in the World Steel Association (2019a). Abbreviated names of the countries are available in Appendix Table 6.

  2. Evolution of steel export volume by country is presented in Appendix Table 7.

  3. Evolution of the top 30 steel firms is available in Appendix Table 8.

  4. Nominal crude steelmaking capacity in non-OECD countries reached 1683.9 million metric tonnes (mmt) in 2018, which is more than three times as high as the 557.9 mmt capacity level observed in 2001, according to OECD (2020). Figures for production and trade were taken or calculated from the World Steel Association (various years) and the International Trade Centre (ITC) (2021), unless otherwise indicated. Moreover, the information on investment activities was mainly obtained from the OECD (2015a).

  5. Other technologies, OHF route, are mainly observed in some non-OECD countries such as Russia and Ukraine.

  6. Iron ore can also be directly reduced to solid iron in the direct reduced iron (DRI) route. The DRI method is a process that produces solid iron from iron ore mainly using natural gas as the reductant. It is used as either a replacement or supplement for scrap in the EAF route (Midrex 2018). Generally, DRI production occurs in areas close to abundant natural gas sources and rich iron ore, such as the Middle East.

  7. A BOF is also called a converter.

  8. Apart from investment costs, operating costs affect technology selection. The data from Steel on the Net (2020a, 2020b) indicate a difference in operating costs between the BF-BOF and EAF routes, although operating costs depend on the development of key raw material prices.

  9. Integrated firms based on the BF-BOF technology can produce high value-added steel products such as the outer panels of automobiles (Kawabata 2017).

  10. Classification of steel products is presented in Appendix Table 9. The evolution of steel export volume by product is presented in Appendix Table 10.

  11. The World Steel Association initially revealed production data by product in each country. However, since the scope and definition of reports of each product might have differed from country to country, it appears to have not accurately reflected actual production volumes. In addition, the organisation does not currently publish production data by product.

  12. The United Nations (2013) states that ‘the analysis of exports seems to be a good indicator of the production system given that exports make up that part of the production system that is entirely subject to international competition. In other words, exports, for which a country has comparative advantages, in particular, are a genuine demonstration of a country’s ability to raise the value of its production system in international markets. Moreover, from a practical viewpoint, export data is often more readily available and more coherent than production data, which enables direct comparisons between countries (p. 1).

  13. See Tamamura (2016) for a detailed discussion of the RCA index, including caveats of the index’s interpretation.

  14. Ferrarini and Scaramozzino (2011) argue that ‘it is very difficult to measure capabilities directly because of their complex nature. The recent analysis of capabilities and trade rests on the notion that the observed profile of a country’s trade specialisation provides indirect information about its productive capacity. … whilst it would prove problematic directly to measure capabilities, the actual trade flows can convey important information on countries’ latent capabilities. In particular, export specialisation is seen as the most reliable indicator of a country’s underlying capabilities’ (p. 1).

  15. An overview of the major non-OECD steel-producing countries is presented in Table 11 within the Appendix.

  16. Taiwan specialises in various steel products, including high value-added products, similar to the OECD countries (Sekiguchi 2017).

  17. Between 2001 and 2018, world crude steel output increased from 852.0 mmt to 1825.5 mmt, in other words, by 973.5 mmt during the period. More specifically, globally crude steel output via the BF-BOF route grew by 762.2 mmt, accounting for 78.3% of the global crude output increase between 2001 and 2018. China accounted for 92.4% of the increase of crude steel output through the BF-BOF technology during this period.

  18. The question may arise that why have some non-OECD countries invested in the EAF route, despite their low availability of scrap? At least two patterns seem to exist. For instance, ASEAN countries have invested in the EAF technology utilising imported scrap. In contrast, countries in the Middle East notably Iran have increased its steelmaking capacity through the EAF route, and thus, DRI has been an increasing important feedstock for its producers (OECD 2015a).

  19. Generally, scrap availability is closely related to levels of past steel production (World Steel Association 2021). This appears to be linked to the fact that the share of the EAF route in steel production in some OECD countries has grown steadily for many decades (Laplace Conseil 2012; Sekiguchi 2019).

  20. This study assumes that rails, electrical sheets, and seamless tubes are high value-added products, given that they have high unit values. High value-added products denote the sum of these products.

  21. For details of kernel density estimates, see, for example, Silva and de Carvalho (2016).

  22. For instance, several major steel firms, such as Novolipetsk Iron & Steel (Russia), Metinvest (Ukraine), Usiminas (Brazil), and ArcelorMittal South Africa (South Africa) have been operating integrated steelworks before the early 2000s.

  23. In India, induction furnaces have also played an important role in steel production.

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Acknowledgements

The author is extremely grateful to the anonymous reviewers for their invaluable comments and suggestions, and Professor Nozomu Kawabata of Tohoku University for his insights and guidance. The author would also like to thank friends Timothy DeStefano (Harvard Business School) and Filipe Silva (Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligence) for their helpful discussions and input. The author retains all responsibilities for the remaining errors and omissions in this document.

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Appendix

Appendix

Table 6 Abbreviations of country names
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Table 7 Evolution of steel exports by country in volume terms
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Table 8 Evolution of top 30 steel firms
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Table 9 Classification of steel products
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Table 10 Evolution of world steel exports by product in volume terms
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Table 11 Overview of the major non-OECD steel-producing countries (2018)
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Sekiguchi, N. The evolution of non-OECD countries in the twenty-first century: developments in steel trade and the role of technology. Miner Econ 35, 103–132 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13563-021-00276-1

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