Abstract
Coffee leaf rust (CLR) poses a significant threat to coffee crops worldwide, including those grown in Brazil. CLR thrives in climatic conditions ideal for coffee cultivation, which results in its constant presence in Brazilian coffee farms. The intensity of CLR exhibits variations as affected by interannual and spatial climate variability that shape epidemics. The aim of this study was to determine the agro-climatic favourability zones for CLR occurrence in the major coffee-producing regions of Brazil based on region-specific agro-climatic conditions. Climate data spanning from 1961 to 2015 at 46 sites were selected to represent the major coffee-producing regions. Using a CLR infection rate model, daily simulations were performed to calculate the cumulative infection rate (CIR) for each site and growing season, starting from 1st October to 30th June of the following year. Based on the CIR values, the sites and seasons were categorised into five favourability classes: Very Low, Low, Medium, High, and Very High. An Agro-Climatic Favourability index (ACFavindex) was developed, considering the frequency of seasons falling within each favourability class. A map displaying four distinct favourability zones across the studied regions was then obtained and showed that most of the traditional coffee-growing areas fell within the Medium to High Favourability zones for CLR. The obtained map, delineating CLR favourability zones, holds practical value for coffee growers, consultants, and policymakers alike. It can guide the selection of CLR-resistant coffee cultivars for new cultivation areas and aid in the development of effective disease control strategies.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alvares CA, Stape JL, Sentelhas PC et al (2013) Köppen’s climate classification map for Brazil. Meteorol Z 22:711–728. https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0507
Assad ED, Pinto HS, Zullo Junior J, Ávila AMH (2004) Impacto das mudanças climáticas no zoneamento agroclimático do café no Brasil. Pesq Agropec Bras 39:1057–1064. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0100-204X2004001100001
Avelino J, Cristancho M, Georgiou S et al (2015) The coffee rust crises in Colombia and Central America (2008–2013): impacts, plausible causes and proposed solutions. Food Sect. 7:303–321. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-015-0446-9
Boudrot A, Pico J, Merle I et al (2016) Shade Effects on the dispersal of Airborne Hemileia vastatrix Uredospores. Phytopathology 106:572–580. https://doi.org/10.1094/PHYTO-02-15-0058-R
Camargo AP de, Sentelhas PC (1997) Avaliação do desempenho de diferentes métodos de estimativa da evapotranspiração potencial no Estado de São Paulo. Rev. Bras. Agrometeorol 5 (1): 89–97.
Capucho AS, Zambolim EM, Freitas RL et al (2012) Identification of race XXXIII of Hemileia vastatrix on Coffea arabica Catimor derivatives in Brazil. Australasian Plant Dis Notes 7:189–191. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13314-012-0081-7
Chaves GM, Cruz Filho J, Carvalho MO et al (1970) Ferrugem do cafeeiro (Hemileia vastatrix Berk. & Br.). Revisão de literatura com observações e comentários sobre a enfermidade no Brasil. Seiva 30:1–75
de Camargo AP, Pereira AR (1994) Agrometeorology of the coffee crop. WMO CAgM Report 58, 43 p., Geneva
de Camargo MBP (2010) The impact of climatic variability and climate change on arabic coffee crop in Brazil. Bragantia 69:239–247. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0006-87052010000100030
Dias HB, Soares-Colletti AR, Hinnah FD, Sentelhas PC (2020) Citrus postbloom fruit drop risk in Southern Brazil as influenced by different El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases. Agrometeoros 28:e026750. https://doi.org/10.31062/agrom.v28.e026750
Gillespie TJ, Sentelhas PC (2008) Agrometeorology and plant disease management: a happy marriage. Sci Agric (Piracicaba Braz) 65:71–75. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0103-90162008000700012
Hinnah FD, Sentelhas PC, Meira CAA, Paiva RN (2018) Weather-based coffee leaf rust apparent infection rate modeling. Int J Biometeorol 62:1847–1860. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-018-1587-2
Honorato J Jr, Zambolim L, do, Nascimento Lopes U et al (2015) DMI and QoI fungicides for the control of coffee leaf rust. Australasian Plant Pathol 44:575–581. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13313-015-0373-4
IBGE (2018) Sistema de recuperação automática (SIDRA). In: Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. http://www.sidra.ibge.gov.br/. Accessed 25 Jan 2018
Kousky VE, Chug PS (1978) Fluctuations in Annual Rainfall for Northeast Brazil. J Meteorological Soc Japan Ser II 56:457–465. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.56.5_457
Kushalappa AC, Akutsu M, Ludwig A (1983) Application of survival ratio for monocyclic process of Hemileia vastatrix in Predicting Coffee Rust infection Rates. Phytopathology 73:96. https://doi.org/10.1094/Phyto-73-96
Kushalappa AC, Chaves GM (1980) An analysis of the development of coffee rust in the field. Fitopatologia Brasileira 5:95–103
Kushalappa AC, Eskes AB (1989) Advances in Coffee Rust Research. Annu Rev Phytopathol 27:503–531. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.py.27.090189.002443
Martinez JA, Palazzo DA, Karazawa M et al (1975) Presença de esporos de hemileia vastatrix Berk & Br. Agente causal da ferrugem do cafeeiro, em diferentes altitudes nas principais áreas cafeeiras dos Estados de São Paulo e Paraná (Brasil). O Biológico
Nóia Júnior RS, Schwerz F, Safanelli JL et al (2019) Eucalyptus rust climatic risk as affected by topography and ENSO phenomenon. Australasian Plant Pathol 48:131–141. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13313-018-0608-2
Peel MC, Finlayson BL, McMahon TA (2007) Updated world map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 11:1633–1644. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-1633-2007
QGIS Development Team (2020) QGIS Geographic Information System
Sediyama GC (2001) Zoneamento agroclimático do cafeeiro (Coffea arabica L.) para o estado de Minas Gerais. Revista Brasileira de Agrometeorologia 9:501–509
Sentelhas PC, dos Santos DL, Monteiro LA et al (2016) Agro-climatic favorability zones for sugarcane orange rust as a tool for cultivar choice and disease management. Crop Prot 84:88–97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cropro.2016.02.016
Soares-Colletti AR, Alvares CA, Sentelhas PC (2016) An agro-climatic approach to determine citrus postbloom fruit drop risk in Southern Brazil. Int J Biometeorol 60:891–905. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-015-1083-x
Souza AGC, Rodrigues F, Maffia LA, Mizubuti ESG (2011) Infection process of Cercospora coffeicola on Coffee Leaf. J Phytopathol 159:6–11. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1439-0434.2010.01710.x
Weltzien HC (1972) Geophytopathology. Annu Rev Phytopathol 10:277–298. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.py.10.090172.001425
Willmott CJ 1981 On the validation of models. Physical Geography 2, 184–194. https://doi.org/10.1080/02723646.1981.10642213
Xavier AC, King CW, Scanlon BR (2016) Daily gridded meteorological variables in Brazil (1980–2013). Int J Climatol 36:2644–2659. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4518
Yuen J, Mila A (2015) Landscape-Scale Disease Risk quantification and prediction. Annu Rev Phytopathol 53:471–484. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-phyto-080614-120406
Zambolim L (2016) Current status and management of coffee leaf rust in Brazil. Trop Plant Pathol 41:1–8. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40858-016-0065-9
Acknowledgements
The authors are grateful to the São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP, grants 2014/17781-8 and 2016/04773-2) for the funds that supported this project. The second author is thankful to the Brazilian Research and Development Council (CNPq) for his fellowship (Level 1 A). Authors express their gratitude for the reviewer’s suggestions, which contributed substantially to the improvement of the final version of this manuscript.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
Tribute
Paulo Cesar Sentelhas, co-author and supervisor of this research, sadly passed away on 21st September 2021, due to complications of COVID-19, one week before completing 57 years at full activity. Paulo Sentelhas was a global reference on research about how the weather determines plant disease development as well the weather interference on yield gaps. Performing manuscripts reviews, he helped to increase quality of several journals, with a main role as Editor in Chief of Scientia Agricola journal. Paulo was a terrific professor presenting capabilities to demonstrate with amazing draws and clear explanations about the agrometeorological science and its interaction with plants and key aspects of agricultural production, using his human and math skills in the best way. Motivating his alumni since the beginning to the end of their academic life, year after year was honoured at the ‘Luiz de Queiroz’ College of Agriculture graduation event. To his team of undergraduate and graduate students, Paulo opened the windows of knowledge, helping us to reach higher academic and professional levels. Although busy, Paulo had his agenda available at any time to guide the students’ steps. As father, Paulo left his wife Rosana, and three daughters, Bárbara, Isabella and Luana, showing his love by the family since the first time we talked. A retired volleyball player who always enjoyed playing pool volleyball with friends and family. There is a huge community of agronomists, researchers and professors thankful for the honour of meeting and learning with Paulo in the different aspects of professional and personal life. This is a short tribute to the great scientist and person Paulo Sentelhas was.
Additional information
In memoriam Paulo Cesar Sentelhas
Publisher’s Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Hinnah, F.D., Sentelhas, P.C. & Dias, H.B. Determining agro-climatic favourability zones for coffee leaf rust in Brazil – a new approach for assisting crop risk planning. Australasian Plant Pathol. 52, 555–565 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13313-023-00942-8
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13313-023-00942-8