Abstract
The populations of economically developed countries are rapidly aging. This represents a sign of demographic success but at the same time it poses several problems for these societies, among which would be an eventual loss of entrepreneurial spirit. Concomitant with the latter idea, the body of empirical literature has shown that the probability of starting a business seems to increase with age up to a threshold point (between 35 and 44 years of age) and to decrease thereafter. However, this does not automatically imply that the innovative attitude of those who opt for an entrepreneurial career in an older population is lower than that characterizing a younger population. One may, indeed, surmise that more efforts will be exerted to introduce innovations as a strategy to compensate the negative effects produced by the shrinking in labor force size and in human capital productivity. Establishing whether population aging has an impact on the innovation attitude of entrepreneurs is crucial to offering a better understanding of the ways through which aging my affect economic growth.
In the present paper, we implement a cross-country analysis aimed at answering the following research questions: are older individuals characterized by a lower probability of becoming entrepreneurs? If this turns out to be true, then are the entrepreneurs operating in older societies less or more prone to innovate?
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Notes
In particular, Sauvy (1948) observed that “In countries suffering from aging, the spirit of enterprise, and hence the willingness to accept risks without which capitalism cannot function, gradually atrophies and is replaced by a new feeling: the desire for security” (p.118).
To give an idea of the magnitude of this phenomenon, the World population prospects (2017) elaborated by the population division of the United Nations report that in high income countries (i.e., those countries with GDP per capita greater than 12,000$) the old-age dependency ratio (i.e., ratio of population aged 65+ per 100 population 15–64) will pass from the 25.7 registered in 2015 to the 46.3 in 2050. This means that in 2050 for every two individuals in the work-force we will have an over 65, presumably out of it. The previsions could be consulted at https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/
The acronym GEM stands for Global Entrepreneurship Monitor; it is an international survey realized by the GEM consortium to investigate entrepreneurship across a wide set of countries.
We will not focus on the discussion of the origin of these opportunities. The interested reader is referred to Shane (2000).
For opportunities, they intend “ … [S]ituations in which new goods, services, raw materials, and organizing processes can be introduced and sold at greater than their cost of production .” (Shane and Venkataraman 2000, p.220). The Kirzerian definition is wider including entrepreneurs that could be both innovator and non-innovator. It must be noted that in a recent contribution, Davidsson (2015) has criticized the concept of opportunity sustaining that is should be reviewed to better drive theoretical and empirical analysis. It is not an aim of this paper to enter in this discussion
Interestingly, Jones (2010), analyzing the time evolution of the characteristics of those who have introduced great innovations both in the academic sector and in business sector, found that these are less and less coming from the young.
For more details, see http://www.gemconsortium.org/. See also Braga et al. (2018) for a brief description of this data source.
Not all countries are present in each wave. Detailed information on the combination of country and year are available upon request to the corresponding author. Alternatively, this information may be obtained from Global Monitor Entrepreneurship Report written each year by the GEM consortium to illustrate the main results of the survey.
Please note that with the exception of age, the other statistic presented in Table 1 are sample proportions. See also https://www.gemconsortium.org/about/wiki for information about sampling strategy.
We were unable to also estimate a model a biprobit model for newtec because of a problem with convergence in the algorithm for the optimization. In all the models that we present, both country and year dummies are included. The associated results are available upon request to the corresponding author.
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Funding
The research activity carried out by Gabriele Ruiu has been in part financed by the “Fondo per il finanziamento dei dipartimenti universitari di eccellenza” (Law nr. 232/2016).
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Ruiu, G., Breschi, M. The Effect of Aging on the Innovative Behavior of Entrepreneurs. J Knowl Econ 10, 1784–1807 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-019-00612-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-019-00612-5