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A local analysis of ethnic group population trends and projections for the UK

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Abstract

Projections of the UK’s ethnic populations from 2001 to 2051 show significant future change. Groups outside the White British majority will increase in size and share, not only in core areas but throughout the country. Ethnic minorities will shift out of deprived local authorities and into less deprived ones, while the White distribution remains stable. The share of the Mixed group population in the most deprived quintile (Q5) of local authorities reduces from 26 to 19%, while its share in the least deprived quintile (Q1) increases from 22 to 29%. The corresponding shifts for Asian groups are from 25 to 18% for Q5 and from 9 to 20% for the Q1. For Black groups the Q5 quintile sees a decrease from 54 to 39% while the Q1 sees an increase from 7 to 19%. There are shifts to local authorities with lower ethnic minority concentrations by Mixed, Asian and Black populations from local authorities with high ethnic concentrations, while the White, Chinese and Other group distributions remain in 2051 as they were in 2001. So, ethnic minority groups will be less segregated from the rest of the population in 2051 than in 2001. Indices of Dissimilarity between each group and the rest of the population fall by a third over the projection period. The UK in 2051 will be a more ethnically diverse society than in 2001.

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Acknowledgments

Funding support was provided by the ESRC under the Understanding Population Trends and Processes (UPTAP) programme. The programme co-ordinator, John Stillwell, was supportive of our work throughout. This research used 2001 and earlier census data obtained via MIMAS (area statistics), CCSR (SARs microdata) and CIDER (migration data). Labour Force Survey data was extracted via ESDS Government and GIS boundary data via EDINA’s UKBORDERS service. Census, survey, official Mid-Year Estimates and Vital Statistics data for England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland used here have been provided by ONS, GROS and NISRA and the digital boundary data by OSGB and OSNI. These data are Crown copyright and are reproduced with permission of OPSI. We are grateful to the following for their advice. John Stillwell (Leeds), Adam Dennett (Leeds), Tom Wilson (University of Queensland), Frans Willekens (NIDI), James Raymer (Southampton), Ludi Simpson (Manchester), David Coleman (Oxford), Sylvie Dubuque (Oxford), John Hollis (Greater London), Roma Chappell, Emma Wright, Jonathan Swan and Chris Shaw (all ONS), Luned Jones (WAG), Elinor Griffiths (WAG), David Marshall (NISRA) and Cecilia Macintyre (GROS and UKSA).

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  1. School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK

    P. Rees, P. Wohland & P. Norman

  2. Edge Analytics Ltd, Leeds Innovations Centre, 103 Clarendon Road, Leeds, LS2 9DF, UK

    P. Boden

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  1. P. Rees
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Correspondence to P. Rees.

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Rees, P., Wohland, P., Norman, P. et al. A local analysis of ethnic group population trends and projections for the UK. J Pop Research 28, 149–183 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12546-011-9047-4

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