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Modeling the impact of wind shear on aerosol for flood prevention and drought monitoring over Ethiopia

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Abstract

Extreme climate events such as heavy rain and drought occur frequently over Ethiopia because of natural and man-made phenomena, even though modeling based on vertical wind shear (VWS) to regulate aerosol for cloud formation is quite useful for accurate estimation of climate extremes. However, there are no previous studies of flood and drought based on aerosol and wind shear in Ethiopia. Therefore, this paper is aimed at modeling the impact of wind shear on aerosol for flood prevention and drought monitoring over Ethiopia. To this end, the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from 2000 to 2019 (20 years) are analyzed. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) and Angstrom exponent (AE) models are applied to estimate aerosol concentration and sizes. The results indicated that the mean values of VWS for two seasons, spring and summer, were 0.5 (pa/s) and 0.3 (pa/s), respectively. The strong VWS negatively correlated to cloud cover and led to drought occurrences, whereas aerosol and cloud cover were positively correlated during weak VWS at the small-size aerosol. Owing to this, moderate VWS and high AOD lead to the occurrence of floods in Ethiopia. Moreover, the southwest and northwest parts of Ethiopia are covered with strong clouds due to the availability of atmospheric moisture and the local aerosol. In summer, most parts of Ethiopia are covered by strong cloud because of weak VWS and smoke aerosols. In the Ethiopian context, there is very small fin anthropogenic aerosol during the study period, while 5% and 1% of mixed aerosol are found during spring and summer seasons respectively. Besides this, 93% and 99% of dust aerosols are found during the spring and summer seasons, respectively. Hence, future study is quite useful to forecast the long-term climate by consideration of VWS on the regulation of aerosol to cloud formation for drought monitoring over Ethiopia.

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Acknowledgements

The authors acknowledge the College of Natural and Computational Science, Debre Markos University, Ethiopia, for its material and car support for the field visit. We would also like to express our appreciation to Ethiopian Meteorology Agency offices for their well-coming approach and support to high-resolution climate data. We would like to thank the colleagues surrounding us for their substantial involvement in the research in one or another way.

Funding

Debre Markos University provided constant financial support throughout the time of the research.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Atmospheric Physics and Radar Meteorology Research Division at, Choke Mountain Research Institute, Debre Markos University, Debre Markos, Ethiopia

    Megbar Wondie

  2. Department of Physics, College of Natural and Computational Science, Jimma University, Jimma, Ethiopia

    Azmeraw Alene

  3. Department of Physics, College of Natural and Computational Science, Debre Markos University, Debre Markos, Ethiopia

    Yesgat Enawgaw

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  1. Megbar Wondie
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  2. Azmeraw Alene
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Correspondence to Megbar Wondie.

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Wondie, M., Alene, A. & Enawgaw, Y. Modeling the impact of wind shear on aerosol for flood prevention and drought monitoring over Ethiopia. Arab J Geosci 15, 1613 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-022-10895-9

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