Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Upstream and downstream response of water resource regimes to climate change in the Indus River basin

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Arabian Journal of Geosciences Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Climate change is posing high risk for glacial resources of the Indus basin on which hundreds of millions of people depend for their sustenance in the downstream. In the present study, impact of climate change was investigated on the multi-water resource regimes of Upper Indus Basin and lower Indus plain of Pakistan adopting integrated statistical and hydrological modeling approach. The findings of the study revealed higher rate of temperature rise in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) than in the lower Indus plain. An inverse relationship was observed between glacier area and mean temperature as well as rainfall (significant at p < 0.05) averaged over 10 sub-basins of the UIB. In contrast, lake area exhibited a positive correlation with both temperature and rainfall parameters. Similarly, river discharges of the sub-basins exhibited a fair positive correlation with mean temperature and rainfall. The groundwater regime in the Indus plain appears to respond indirectly to changes in climate, i.e., via variations in surface recharge and discharge conditions. However, such interactions between various parameters and their role in regional hydrology need a thorough investigation in context of projected changes in climate in this region.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Ashraf A, Batool A (2019) Evaluation of glacial resource potential for sustaining kuhl irrigation system under changing climate in the Himalayan region. Jour of Mt Sci 16(5):1150–1159

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ashraf A, Ahmad Z (2008) Regional groundwater flow modeling of Upper Chaj Doab of Indus Basin, Pakistan using finite element model (Feflow) and geoinformatics. Geophys J Int 173:17–24

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ashraf A, Naz R, Iqbal MB (2017) Altitudinal dynamics of glacial lakes under changing climate in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Himalaya ranges. Geomorphology 283:72–79

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ashraf A. 2013. Changing hydrology of the Himalayan watershed, Current Perspectives, in Contaminant Hydrology and Water Resources Sustainability, Dr. Paul Bradley (Ed.), ISBN: 978-953-51-1046-0, InTech, DOI: https://doi.org/10.5772/54492.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bajracharya SR, Maharjan SB, Shrestha F, Guo W, Liu S, Immerzeel W, Shrestha B (2015) The glaciers of the Hindu Kush Himalayas: current status and observed changes from the 1980s to 2010. Intern J Water Res Dev 31(2):161–173

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bajracharya SR, Shrestha B (eds) (2011) The status of glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan Region. ICIMOD, Kathmandu, p 140

    Google Scholar 

  • Bookhagen B, Burbank DW (2010) Toward a complete Himalayan hydrological budget: spatiotemporal distribution of snowmelt and rainfall and their impact on river discharge. J Geophys Res 115:F03019

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chaudhry QZ, Mahmood A, Rasul G, Afzaal M. 2009. Climate indicators of Pakistan. PMD Technical Report 22/2009.

  • Copland L, Sylvestre T, Bishop MP, Shroder JF, Seong YB, Owen LA, Bush A, Kamb U (2011) Expanded and recently increased glacier surging in the Karakoram. Arct Antarct Alp Res 43:503–516

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Farooqi AB, Khan AH, Mir H (2005) Climate change perspective in Pakistan. Pakistan J Meteorol 2(3):11–21

    Google Scholar 

  • Forsythe N, Kilsby CG, Fowler HJ, Archer DR (2012) Assessment of runoff sensitivity in the Upper Indus Basin to interannual climate variability and potential change using MODIS satellite data products. Mt Res Dev 32(1):16–29

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fowler HJ, Archer DR (2006) Conflicting signals of climate change in the Upper Indus Basin. J Clim 19:4276–4293

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gardelle J, Berthier E, Arnaud Y (2012) Slight mass gain of Karakoram glaciers in the early twenty-first century. Nat Geosci 5:322–325

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hewitt K, Wake CP, Young GJ, David C (1989) Hydrological investigations at Biafo Glacier, Karakoram Himalaya, Pakistan: an important source of water for the Indus River. Ann Glaciol 13:103–108

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hewitt K (2005) The Karakoram Anomaly? Glacier expansion and the elevation effect, Karakoram Himalaya. Mt Res Dev 25:332–340

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Immerzeel W, van Beek LPH, Bierkens MFP (2010) Climate change will affect the Asian water towers. Science 328(5984):1382–1385

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Immerzeel WW, Droogers P, De Jong SM, Bierkens MFP (2009) Large scale monitoring of snow cover and runoff simulation in Himalayan river basins using remote sensing. Remote Sens Environ 113:40–49

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Immerzeel WW, Pellicciotti F, Bierkens MFP (2013) Rising river flows throughout the twenty-first century in two Himalayan glacierized watersheds. Nat Geosci 6:742–745

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). In: Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Iqbal M, Akhter G, Ashraf A, Ayub S (2018) Snowmelt runoff assessment and prediction under variable climate and glacier cover scenarios in Astore River Basin, Western Himalayas. Arab J Geosci 11:568. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-018-3923-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Khan AD, Iqbal N, Ashraf M, Sheikh AA (2016) Groundwater investigations and mapping in the upper Indus plain. Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR), Islamabad, p 72

    Google Scholar 

  • Latif Y, Yaoming M (2018) Runoff simulation within snow-fed mountainous region of Upper Indus Basin (UIB) west, using Degree Day Hydrological Modeling Approach. Geophys Res Abstr 20:EGU2018–EGU8092

    Google Scholar 

  • Latif Y, Yaoming M, Yaseen M (2018) Spatial analysis of precipitation time series over the Upper Indus Basin. Theor Appl Climatol 131:761–775. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-2007-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mayer C, Lambrecht A, Belo M, Smiraglia C, Diolaiuti G (2006) Glaciological characteristics of the ablation zone of Baltoro glacier, Karakoram. Ann Glaciol 43:123–131

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mir RA, Jain SK, Saraf AK, Goswami A (2014) Detection of changes in glacier mass balance using satellite and meteorological data in Tirungkhad basin located in Western Himalaya. J Indian Soc Remote Sens 42(1):91–105

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mukhopadhyay B, Khan A (2014) A quantitative assessment of the genetic sources of the hydrologic flow regimes in Upper Indus Basin and its significance in a changing climate. J Hydrol 509:549–572

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • NWP. 2018. National water policy. Ministry of water resources, Govt. of Pakistan.

  • Paul F, Kaab A, Maisch M, Kellenberger T, Haeberli W (2002) The new remote-sensing-derived Swiss glacier inventory. I Methods Ann Glaciol 34:355–361

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Piracha A, Majeed Z (2011) Water use in Pakistan’s agricultural sector: water conservation under the changed climatic conditions. Int Jour of Water Res and Arid Env 1(3):170–179

    Google Scholar 

  • Qureshi AS (2014) Reducing carbon emissions through improved irrigation management: a case study from Pakistan. Irrig Drain 63:132–138

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qureshi AS (2018) Challenges and opportunities of groundwater management in Pakistan. In: Mukherjee A (ed) Groundwater of South Asia. Springer Hydrogeology. Springer, Singapore

    Google Scholar 

  • Rehman A, Jingdong L, Du Y, Khatoon R, Wagan SA, Nisar SK (2015) Flood disaster in Pakistan and its impact on agriculture growth (a review). J Econ Sustain Dev 6(23):39–42

    Google Scholar 

  • Rehman H, Ahmad Z, Ashraf A (2018) Predicting discharge potential of upper Thal Doab, Indus basin for irrigation through numerical groundwater flow modeling. Iranian Jour of Earth Sc 10:90–98

    Google Scholar 

  • Richardson SD. 2010. Remote sensing approaches for early warning of GLOF hazards in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region, Final report -ver 1.2, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR).

  • Romshoo SA, Dar RA, Rashid I, Marazi A, Ali N, Zaz SN (2015) Implications of shrinking cryosphere under changing climate on the stream flows in the Lidder catchment in the upper Indus Basin, India. Arct Antarct Alp Res 47(4):627–644

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roohi R, Mool PK, Ashraf A, Bajracharya S, Hussain SA, Naz R (2005) Inventory of glaciers, glacial lakes the identification of potential glacial lake outburst floods affected by global warming in the mountains of Himalayan Region, Pakistan. ICIMOD, Nepal & PARC, Pakistan

    Google Scholar 

  • RTI International (2016) Climate change impact assessment for Diamer Bhasha dam, Review draft of interim report. MWH Americas, Inc, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  • Saeed F, Jehangir S, Noamanul-Haq M, Shafeeq W, Hashmi M.Z, Ali G, Khan AM. 2009. Application of UBC and DHSVM models for selected catchments of Indus Basin Pakistan. GCISC-RR-11. Global Change Impact Studies Centre, Islamabad.

  • Savoskul OS, Smakhtin V. 2013. Glacier systems and seasonal snow cover in six major Asian river basins: water storage properties under changing climate. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute (IWMI). 69p. (IWMI Research Report 149). doi:https://doi.org/10.5337/2013.203

  • Sharif M, Archer DR, Fowler HJ, Forsythe N (2013) Trends in timing and magnitude of flow in the Upper Indus Basin. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 17(4):1503–1516

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • SSRI. 2013. Poverty alleviation and economic growth through sustainable use of natural resources in Noorpur Thal. A technical study report by Social Sciences Research Institute (SSRI), National Agricultural Research Center, Islamabad.

  • Tahir AA, Chevallier P, Arnaud Y, Ashraf M, Bhatti MT (2015) Snow cover trend and hydrological characteristics of the Astore River basin (Western Himalayas) and its comparison to the Hunza basin (Karakoram region). Sci Total Environ 505:748–761

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Winiger M, Gumpert M and Yamout H (2005) Karakoram-Hindukush-Western Himalaya: Assessing high-altitude water resources. Hydrol Processes 19:2329–2338

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yao T, Thompson L, Yang W, Yu W, Gao Y, Guo X, Yang X, Duan K, Zhao H, Xu B, Pu J (2012) Different glacier status with atmospheric circulations in Tibetan Plateau and surroundings. Nat Clim Chang 2(9):663–667

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yasmeen Z, Zaidi A, Afzaal M (2016) Rainfall runoff modeling using geo-spatial techniques in Tarbela sub-catchment. Pakistan J Meteorol 12(24):1–13

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhao L, Ding R, Moore JC (2014) Glacier volume and area change by 2050 in high mountain Asia. Glob Planet Chang 122(2014):197–207

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zurick D, Pacheco J, Shrestha B, Bajracharya B (2006) Atlas of the Himalaya. ICIMOD, Kathmandu

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The data support of Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), and Punjab irrigation department, and technical support of Quaid-i-Azam University and National Agricultural Research Center (NARC), Islamabad, are gratefully acknowledged. We are also thankful to the Editor and anonymous reviewers for rendering valuable comments and suggestions in improving this manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Climate, Energy and Water Research Institute, National Agricultural Research Center (NARC), Islamabad, Pakistan

    Arshad Ashraf

  2. Department of Earth Sciences, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan

    Hanif-ur-Rehman

Authors
  1. Arshad Ashraf
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Hanif-ur-Rehman
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Arshad Ashraf.

Additional information

Editorial handling: P. Naik

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Ashraf, A., Hanif-ur-Rehman Upstream and downstream response of water resource regimes to climate change in the Indus River basin. Arab J Geosci 12, 516 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-019-4667-7

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-019-4667-7

Keywords

Search

Navigation