Abstract
Production from unconventional resources, increases in upstream development costs and sluggish demand growth have significantly impacted the global natural gas market in the recent past; and will likely continue to do so during the next decade. Taking these developments into account, we provide a projection of global natural gas supply until 2030 applying the MAGELAN world gas model by the Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne (EWI). Apart from presenting the results of this simulation, the focus of this paper is thereby on the effects of recent supply, midstream and demand side trends on future gas supply compared to earlier studies and projections. While lower demand growth generally leads to relatively less international gas trade, pipeline exports are affected more strongly than trade in liquefied natural gas. In terms of gas output, this volume effect is found to mainly affect high cost gas producers at the upper end of the supply curve. Exports of suppliers with lower production costs and abundant reserves actually benefit.
Zusammenfassung
Die zunehmende Rentabilität der Förderung unkonventioneller Reserven, steigende Kosten bei der Erschließung neuer Felder und hinter den Erwartungen zurückbleibende Nachfragezuwächse haben den globalen Erdgasmarkt in der jüngsten Vergangenheit bereits stark beeinflusst; und werden ihn auch langfristig beeinflussen. Unter Berücksichtigung dieser Trends wird in diesem Artikel eine Simulation des globalen Erdgasmarktes mit dem MAGELAN Modell des Energiewirtschaftlichen Instituts an der Universität zu Köln (EWI) erstellt. Neben der Vorstellung der Ergebnisse dieser Projektion liegt der Fokus des Beitrags dabei auf den Auswirkungen der Entwicklungen im Angebots-, Nachfrage- und Transportkostenbereich im Vergleich zu früheren mit demselben Modell erstellten Simulationen. Generell führen ein steigendes einheimisches Angebot (Unconventionals, vor allem in den USA) und nach unten korrigierte Nachfrageentwicklungen dabei weltweit zu einem relativen Rückgang des internationalen Gashandels, welcher jedoch eher zu Lasten von Pipelineexporten als zu einem Rückgang von Handel mit verflüssigtem Erdgas (LNG) geht. Ein relativer Rückgang der Absatzerwartungen zeigt sich dabei vor allem für Erdgasanbieter mit Produktionskosten am teureren Ende der Angebotskurve. Die Exporte von Lieferantenländern mit relativ niedrigen Produktionskosten steigen im Vergleich zu früheren Gasmarkt-Projektionen sogar an.
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Notes
The literature mentioned and discussed in this introduction merely present a small excerpt of existing gas market models. A larger selection of models was, for example, discussed at the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-23) at Stanford University (from 2004 to 2007) under the title of “World Natural Gas Markets and Trade”.
Data sources include the Oil and Gas Journal (01/2003–04/2008) and platts LNG newsletter (2008 and 2009 volumes).
Based on EWI research of new gas field investments between 2007 and 2009. In regions without new investments in this time period, assumptions from similar fields in other regions were applied.
This only considers reserve volumes. Production costs for gas from unconventional sources also declined significantly over the last years (relative to production from conventional sources) bringing these reserves closer to the market cost-wise.
All historic trade data quoted in this section is based on BP (2009).
See Lochner and Bothe (2009) who focus on supply costs in the context of the presented model.
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Lochner, S., Richter, J. The Impact of Recent Gas Market Developments on Long-Term Projections for Global Gas Supply. Z Energiewirtsch 34, 61–69 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12398-010-0001-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12398-010-0001-5