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Understanding Marsh Elevation and Accretion Processes and Vulnerability to Rising Sea Levels Across Climatic and Geomorphic Gradients in California, USA

  • Special Issue: Wetland Elevation Dynamics
  • Published:
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Abstract

Tidal marshes build elevations by below- and aboveground organic and mineral soil processes. Marsh elevation and accretion data can be used to determine if marshes are keeping pace with sea-level rise. Using a network of 54 deep rod surface elevation tables with paired feldspar marker horizon plots, we tracked elevation and accretion trends across 16 marshes in California, USA. All sites had overall positive gains across years that included severe drought conditions and extreme rain events. Marsh elevation relative to tidal datum (z*) was the key predictor for elevation and accretion rates, with higher change rates at lower z* sites. Marsh sites are clustered into three regional groups (Northern California, San Francisco Bay area, and Southern California), primarily defined by maximum temperature and annual rainfall differences. Elevation, accretion, and shallow subsidence rates were not significantly different between clusters, but their explanatory variables did vary. High-temperature days were a key predictor for elevation, accretion, and shallow subsidence rates in the state-wide analysis and San Francisco Bay regional analysis. The largest elevation gains were observed in the San Francisco Bay-Delta and some of the smallest in Humboldt Bay, with Morro Bay having the lowest accretion rate overall. Central and Southern California marshes were keeping pace or out-pacing sea-level rise, while none of the Humboldt Bay marshes were keeping pace. Marsh surface elevation data can inform management intervention and be a leading indicator for sea-level rise vulnerability. Long-term monitoring across geomorphic settings can help inform management and anticipate marsh change.

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Data Availability

Data can be found at https://doi.org/10.5066/P9MN2I1W.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thank land managers from the US Fish and Wildlife Service, NOAA National Estuarine Research Reserve, California Department of Fish and Wildlife, East Bay Regional Parks, Marin County, Morro Bay National Estuary Program, and the US Navy for granting us site access to conduct this study. We express thanks to countless field technicians who assisted in the collection of this data over many years. We would like to thank JY Takekawa for their support in developing the study design. GRG and JN acknowledge support from the USGS Ecosystem Mission Area, Climate Research and Development Program. KT, MB, LR, and CF acknowledge support from the USGS Ecosystem Mission Area and Priority Ecosystems. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the US Government.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. U.S. Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, One Shields Ave., Davis, CA, 95616, USA

    Karen M. Thorne, McKenna L. Bristow, Lyndsay L. Rankin & Chase M. Freeman

  2. Natural Resources Research Institute, University of Minnesota Duluth, 5013 Miller Trunk Highway, Duluth, MN, 55811, USA

    Katya E. Kovalenko

  3. Eastern Ecological Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Beech Forest Rd., Laurel, MD, 20708, USA

    Justine A. Neville & Glenn R. Guntenspergen

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  1. Karen M. Thorne
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  2. McKenna L. Bristow
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  4. Katya E. Kovalenko
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  6. Chase M. Freeman
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  7. Glenn R. Guntenspergen
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Correspondence to Karen M. Thorne.

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Communicated by Charles T. Roman

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Thorne, K.M., Bristow, M.L., Rankin, L.L. et al. Understanding Marsh Elevation and Accretion Processes and Vulnerability to Rising Sea Levels Across Climatic and Geomorphic Gradients in California, USA. Estuaries and Coasts (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-023-01298-4

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