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Spatial and Interannual Variability in Winter Mortality of the Blue Crab (Callinectes sapidus) in the Chesapeake Bay

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Abstract

The blue crab, Callinectes sapidus, is an ecologically and economically valuable species in Chesapeake Bay. Field surveys and laboratory experiments indicate that blue crab mortality is significant during severe winters. We applied a temperature and salinity-dependent survival model to empirical temperature and salinity data to explore spatial and interannual patterns in overwintering mortality. Harmonic regression analysis and geostatistical techniques were used to create spatially explicit maps of estimated winter duration, average temperature, average salinity, and resulting crab survival probability for the winters of 1990–2004. Predicted survival was highest in the warmer, saline waters of the lower Bay and decreased with increasing latitude up bay. There was also significant interannual variation with survival being lowest after the severe winters of 1996 and 2003. We combine the survival probability maps with maps of blue crab abundance to show how winter mortality may reduce blue crab abundance prior to the start of the harvesting season.

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Acknowledgements

We wish to thank Olaf Jensen for statistical and GIS advice and for providing geostatistical estimates of crab abundance. Thanks to Glenn Davis with the Maryland Department of Natural Resources for providing mortality data from the WDS. Dave Secor and Vic Kennedy provided helpful comments and editorial assistance on earlier versions of this manuscript. This work was prepared by LJB and TJM under awards NA16RG2207/SC528051K from Maryland Sea Grant, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, US Department of Commerce. The statements, findings, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Maryland Sea Grant, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or U.S. Department of Commerce. This is contribution number 4355 of the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science.

Conflict of interest notification

No conflicts of interest exist between the authors and the funding institution. The authors have control over primary data, which they will provide for review if requested.

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  1. Laurie J. Bauer

    Present address: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 1305 East West Highway, Silver Spring, MD, 20910, USA

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  1. Chesapeake Biological Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, P.O. Box 38, 1 Williams St, Solomons, MD, 20688, USA

    Laurie J. Bauer & Thomas J. Miller

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Correspondence to Laurie J. Bauer.

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Bauer, L.J., Miller, T.J. Spatial and Interannual Variability in Winter Mortality of the Blue Crab (Callinectes sapidus) in the Chesapeake Bay. Estuaries and Coasts 33, 678–687 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-009-9237-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-009-9237-x

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