Abstract
Climate change remains a threat as it impairs environmental, economic, and social instability. It poses significant risk that include, but are not limited to, the dispersion of people within and across geographical regions. In this study, we investigate the intricate relationship between climate change and migration dynamics, focusing on Asian migrants to the Russian Federation. The study used the cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) model with annual data from 1997 to 2022 to analyze migration flow to Russia as a result of climate change and other push factors from their home country. Our findings reveal that temperature anomalies are a significant push factor in migration flow, especially in the long run. Additional push factors, such as unemployment, were found to exert influence on migration patterns. An implication of the study is that the impact of climate change may not be immediately apparent, but when it does occur, it can play a significant role in driving migration, along with other factors. This further suggests that the primary effect of climate change is the increased frequency of migration and displacement of people to search for better living conditions and opportunities. Our analysis highlights the nuanced role of climate in migration decisions, urging policymakers to consider climate-specific strategies to address the growing issue of displacement. We recommend that the government should invest in adaptation measures to mitigate the impacts of climate change.
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The data used in this study were obtained from open-source repositories (investing.com and climate policy uncertainty) and its freely available. However, they could be provided upon request.
Notes
Menozzi, C. (2021). International migration 2020 highlights. https://www.un.org/en/desa/international-migration-2020-highlights.
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The article has been prepared with the support of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (Ural Federal University Program of Development within the Priority-2030 Program).
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Babangida, J.S., Mamman, S.O. & Derbeneva, V.V. Beyond borders: exploring the migration-climate change dynamics of Asian migrants to Russian Federation. Lett Spat Resour Sci 17, 6 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12076-024-00373-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12076-024-00373-z