Abstract
Using decadal data for 1961–2011, the paper explores the demographic dividend of major Indian states. Accordingly, we first explore Zipf’s law and thereafter, examine Gibrat’s law for the growth of state population. Based on these findings, we investigate the demographic dividend of state population. The results appear to suggest that the demographic dividend varies across states and these “dividends” are in fact, large in magnitude, especially for the laggard states.
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Notes
These states include: Andhra Pradesh (AP), Karnataka (KAR), Kerala (KER) and, Tamil Nadu (TN) in Southern region, Haryana (HAR), Punjab (PUN), Rajasthan (RAJ) and Uttar Pradesh (UP) in the Northern region, Bihar (BH), Orissa (ORS), and West Bengal (WB) in the Eastern region and Gujarat (GUJ) Maharashtra (MAH) and Madhya Pradesh (MP) in the Western region. The four additional states are Assam (ASM), Goa (GOA), Himachal Pradesh (HP) and Tripura (TRIP).
The analysis is based on 14 Indian states (see fn.1).
Data provided in the Economic Survey suggests that overall population growth of India has slowed from 2.2 % during 1951 to 1991 to 1.8 % during 1991–2011. For the 14 (resp., 18) sample states, these numbers are roughly 2.1 % (pre-reforms) and 1.8 % (post-reforms).
BRIC is the acronym for Brazil, Russia, India and China
The term ‘laggard’ denotes low-growth states, concentrated largely in a broad swath of territory running across central and northern India (Aiyar and Mody 2011).
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Acknowledgments
I would like to profusely thank, without implicating, two anonymous referees for the incisive comments on an earlier draft, which greatly improved the analysis and exposition. Needless to state, the views expressed and the approach pursued in the paper reflects the personal opinion of the author.
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Ghosh, S. Estimating the demographic dividend: Evidence from Indian states. Population Ageing 9, 249–262 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12062-015-9136-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12062-015-9136-9