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Energy efficiency improvement potentials and a low energy demand scenario for the global industrial sector

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Abstract

The adoption of energy efficiency measures can significantly reduce industrial energy use. This study estimates the future industrial energy consumption under two energy demand scenarios: (1) a reference scenario that follows business as usual trends and (2) a low energy demand scenario that takes into account the implementation of energy efficiency improvement measures. These scenarios cover energy demand in the period 2009–2050 for ten world regions. The reference scenario is based on the International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook (2011 edition) up to 2035 and is extrapolated by Gross Domestic Product projections for the period 2035–2050. According to the reference scenario, the industrial energy use will increase from 105 EJ in 2009 to 185 EJ in 2050 (excluding fuel use as a feedstock). It is estimated that, with the adoption of energy efficient technologies and increased recycling, the growth in industrial energy use in 2050 can be limited to 140 EJ, an annual energy use increase of 0.7 % compared with the 2009 case. The 2050 industrial energy use in the low energy demand scenario is estimated to be 24 % lower than the 2050 energy use in the reference scenario. The results of this study highlight the importance of industrial energy efficiency by providing insights of the energy savings potentials in different regions of the world.

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Notes

  1. In this study, unless otherwise mentioned, industrial energy use also includes the energy use in coke ovens and blast furnaces that is reported in IEA statistics under the transformation processes and under the industry’s own use, and excludes the energy use in refineries and as a feedstock. The energy use in coke ovens and blast furnaces reported under the transformation processes represents the transformation losses for producing coke oven coke, coke oven gas, blast furnace gas, and other recovered gases while the energy use in coke ovens and blast furnaces reported under the industry’s own use represents the primary and secondary energy used for supporting the industrial activity, i.e., energy use for heating, pumping, and other purposes (IEA 2004; 2011b).

  2. In 2009, the worldwide industrial energy use was 105 EJ excluding feedstock use and 126 EJ including feedstock use (IEA 2011a).

  3. The WEO energy data do not include the energy used in coke ovens and blast furnaces.

  4. For the Middle East, we assume no energy savings since data for specific energy consumption are low.

  5. Best practice fuel and electricity use for cement making is based on Worrell et al. (2008b) for cement with 65 % Blast Furnace Slag.

  6. In the Saygin et al. (2011b) study, the chemicals included under HVCs are: ethylene, propylene, benzene, butadiene, acetylene, and hydrogen (sold as a fuel). The chemicals not included are: toluene and xylene.

  7. 3,000 kWh/tonne in Japan, 3,500 kWh/tonne in Western Europe, and 4,300 kWh/tonne in the United States

  8. This is AC electricity use, also including electricity use in rectifiers for converting AC current to DC and electricity use in auxiliary equipment.

  9. Although by definition the adoption of BAT would result into more energy savings than the BPT adoption, it is not clear why in the IEA study a lower energy savings potential than in Saygin et al. (2011a) is estimated.

  10. Similarly to the reference scenario in our study, the 6DS of IEA is based on the continuation of current trends.

  11. In the IEA energy statistics, the default conversion factor used for converting electricity generation from hydropower to primary energy is 100 %.

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Acknowledgments

This study is based on previous studies concerning energy demand scenarios prepared for Greenpeace/EREC and UBA in cooperation with DLR. The views and research in this study do not necessarily represent their views.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584, CS, Utrecht, The Netherlands

    Katerina Kermeli, Wina H. J. Graus & Ernst Worrell

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  1. Katerina Kermeli
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  2. Wina H. J. Graus
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  3. Ernst Worrell
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Correspondence to Katerina Kermeli.

Appendix

Appendix

Table 11 Energy saving potentials in 2050 (annual autonomous energy efficiency improvement = 0.25 %)
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Table 12 Energy savings potentials in 2050 (annual autonomous energy efficiency improvement = 0.75 %)
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Fig. 13
figure 13

Industrial energy use in the low energy demand scenario under different autonomous energy efficiency improvements

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Kermeli, K., Graus, W.H.J. & Worrell, E. Energy efficiency improvement potentials and a low energy demand scenario for the global industrial sector. Energy Efficiency 7, 987–1011 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-014-9267-5

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