Abstract
Climate change studies of locations with comparable Köppen–Geiger climate classifications have received little attention. The current study investigated trends in extreme temperature (Tmax and Tmin [maximum and minimum temperatures], DTR [diurnal temperature range], and TR20 [tropical nights]) and precipitation indices (R10, R20, and R30; [annual count of days when rainfall ≥ 10, 20, and 30 mm, respectively], and Prcptot; [annual total precipitation 1 mm]) in three locations: Port Harcourt (PH) in Nigeria, Thane (TH) in India, and Laoag City (LC) in the Philippines under similar Köppen–Geiger climate classification. In this study, the distributional assumptions of the linear model were applied for trend estimation and hypothesis testing. It was hypothesized that changes in climate extreme indices will be symmetrical in the three locations; however, results revealed that trends in Tmax were asymmetrical in all locations. In TH and LC, Tmin demonstrated symmetry and strong overlap in trend confidence interval. TR20 and DTR demonstrated symmetry and substantial overlap in trend confidence intervals in all locations. Precipitation indices exhibited starkly different patterns, with no agreement in trend confidence intervals found across locations. Our findings revealed significant wetting trends in TH and LC, as well as non-significant warming and drop in Tmax, respectively. PH is significantly drying with significant warming in Tmax. All locations revealed significant warming in Tmin and TR20, as well as drop in DTR; however, the DTR trend in TH is not significant. The effects of changes in climate extreme indices presented in this study may help to explain the regional heterogeneity in agricultural productivity. Our findings revealed that climate change along the lines of similar Köppen–Geiger classification is slightly congruent. Furthermore, there are signs of probable location-specific climate change impacts, which would necessitate local mitigation and adaptation activities.
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Ikenna Onyekwelu: Conceptualization, literature, modelling, analysis, manuscript writing and preparation, review and editing. Emeka Ndulue: Literature, review and editing. John Eric Abon: Literature, review and editing. Rahul Singh: Literature, review and editing.
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Onyekwelu, I., Ndulue, E.L., Abon, J.E. et al. Trends and comparison of climate extreme indices in coastal locations under similar Köppen–Geiger classification using linear modelling approach. J Earth Syst Sci 132, 126 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-023-02144-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-023-02144-8