Abstract
The monthly 1°×1° global snow cover (SC) data taken from version three of the twentieth-century reanalysis (20CR) project and the high-resolution gridded rainfall data provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the years 1957–2015 are used to study the relation between southwest monsoon rainfall (SWMR) over India and the SC over Eurasia (35°–65°N; 40°–80°E) and Himalayas (20°–50°N; 50°–110°E) for the four sesquidecades 1957–1970, 1971–1985, 1986–2000 and 2001–2015. It is observed that the SC over Eurasia in April–May shows generally the well-known negative correlation with the all India averaged SWMR. However, the correlation became positive in the recent sesquidecade 2001–2015. Though the correlation between Himalayan SC and SWMR is increasingly positive during the first three sesquidecades, it becomes negative during 2001–2015 over the majority of the grid points. This drastic change in the relationship is attributed to the decreasing trend in the area of SC and the increasing trend in the North Atlantic Sea surface temperature (SST) during the last decade.
References
Bamzai A S and Shukla J 1999 Relation between Eurasian SC, snow depth, and the Indian summer monsoon: An observational study; J. Clim. 12(10) 3117–3132, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012.
Barimala R, Bracco A and Kucharski F 2012 The representation of the south Tropical Atlantic teleconnection to the Indian Ocean in the AR4 coupled models; Clim. Dyn. 38 1147–1166, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1082-5.
Bhalme H N, Rahalkar S S and Sikdar A B 1987 Tropical quasi-biennial oscillation of the 10 mb wind and Indian monsoon rainfall – implications for forecasting; J. Climatol. 7 345–353, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370070403.
Bhattacharyya S and Narasimha R 2000 Possible association between Indian monsoon rainfall and solar activity; Geophys. Res. Lett. 32 L05813, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021044.
Blanford H F 1884 On the connection of Himalayan snowfall with dry winds and seasons of drought in India; Proc. Roy. Soc. London 37 3–22, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspl.1884.0003.
Brown R and Robinson D 2011 Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover variability and change over 1922–2010 including an assessment of uncertainty; Cryosphere 5 219–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-219-2011.
Chang C P, Harr P and Ju J 2001 Possible roles of Atlantic circulations on the weakening Indian monsoon rainfall–ENSO relationship; J. Clim. 14 2376–2380, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014%3c2376:PROACO%3e2.0.CO;2.
Charney J G and Shukla J 1981 Predictability of monsoons: Monsoon dynamics (eds) Sir J Lighthill and R P Pearce, Cambridge University Press, pp. 99–109.
Chen Z, Wu R and Wang Z 2021 Impact of autumn-winter Tibetan Plateau snow cover anomalies on the East Asian Winter monsoon and its interdecadal change; Front. Earth Sci. 9 699358, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.699358.
Dash S K, Singh G P, Shekhar M S and Vernekar A D 2005 Response of the Indian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall to seasonal snow depth anomaly over Eurasia; Clim. Dyn. 24 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0448-3.
Dey B and Bhanukumar O S R U 1982 An apparent relationship between Eurasian spring SC and the advance period of the Indian summer monsoon; J. Appl. Meteor. 21 1929–1932, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1982)0211929:AARBES.2.0.CO;2.
Dickson R R 1984 Eurasian SC versus Indian monsoon rainfall: An extension of the Hahn-Shukla results; J. Clim. Appl. Meteor. 23 171–173, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1984)023%3c0171:ESCVIM%3e2.0.CO;2.
Douville H 2010 Relative contribution of soil moisture and snow mass to seasonal climate predictability: A pilot study; Clim. Dyn. 34 797–818, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0508-1.
Ghosh G, Luniya V and Gupta V 2009 Trend analysis of Indian summer monsoon rainfall at different spatial scales; Atmos. Sci. Let. 10 285–290, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.235.
Goswami B N, Venugopal V and Sengupta D 2006 Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment; Science 314 1442, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1132027.
Hahn D G and Shukla J 1976 An apparent relationship between the Eurasian SC and Indian monsoon rainfall; J. Atmos. Sci. 33 2461–2462, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1976)033%3c2461:AARBES%3e2.0.CO;2.
Kripalani R H and Kulkarni A 1999 Climatology and variability of historical Soviet snow depth data: Some new perspectives in snow – Indian monsoon teleconnections; Clim. Dyn. 15 475–489, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050294.
Kripalani R H, Kulkarni A, Inamdar S R and Prasad K D 1999 Teleconnections: Northern hemisphere lower stratospheric geopotential heights and Indian monsoon rainfall; Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 69 195–203, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01030421.
Kucharski F, Bracco A, Yoo J H, Tompkins A M, Feudale L, Ruti P and Dell’Aquila A 2009 A Gill–Matsuno-type mechanism explains the tropical Atlantic influence on African and Indian monsoon rainfall; Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 135 569–579, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.406.
Kumar P, Rupa Kumar K, Rajeevan M and Sahai A K 2007 On the recent strengthening of the relationship between ENSO and northeast monsoon rainfall over south Asia; Clim. Dyn. 28 649–660, https://doi.org/10.1007/S00382-006-0210-0.
Lin H and Wu Z 2011 Contribution of the Autumn Tibetan Plateau snow cover to seasonal prediction of North American winter temperature; J. Clim. 24 2801–2813, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3889.1.
Liu S, Wu Q, Ren X, Yao Y, Schroeder S R and Hu H 2017 Modeled Northern Hemisphere Autumn and winter climate responses to realistic Tibetan Plateau and Mongolia snow anomalies; J. Clim. 30 9435–9454, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0117.1.
Liu S, Wu Q, Schroeder S R, Yao Y, Zhang Y and Wu T et al. 2020 Near-global atmospheric responses to observed springtime Tibetan Plateau snow anomalies; J. Clim. 33 1691–1706, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0229.1.
Nayagam L R, Janardanan R and Mohan H S R 2009 Variability and teleconnectivity of northeast monsoon rainfall over India; Glob. Planet. Change 69 225–231, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.GLOPLACHA.2009.10.005.
Pai D, Sridhar L, Rajeevan M, Sreejith O, Satbhai N and Mukhopadhyay B 2014 Development of a new high spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) long period (1901–2010) daily gridded rainfall data set over India and its comparison with existing data sets over the region; Mausam 65(1) 1–18.
Parthasarathy B, Munot A A and Kothawale D R 1994 All India monthly and seasonal rainfall series 1871–1993; Theor. Appl. Climatol. 49 217–224, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00867461.
Prabhu A, Oh J, Kim I W, Kripalani R H, Mitra A K and Pandithurai G 2017 Summer monsoon rainfall variability over North East regions of India and its association with Eurasian snow, Atlantic Sea Surface temperature and Arctic Oscillation; Clim. Dyn. 49 2545–2556, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3445-4.
Rajeevan M and Pai D S 2007 On the El Nino-Indian monsoon predictive relationships; Geophys. Res. Lett. 34 l04704, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006gl028916.
Rajeevan M, Bhate J, Kale J D and Lal B 2006 High resolution daily gridded rainfall data for the Indian region: Analysis of break and active; Curr. Sci. 91 296–306.
Robock A, Mu M, Vinnikov K and Robinson D 2003 Land surface conditions over Eurasia and Indian summer monsoon rainfall; J. Geophys. Res. 108(D4) 4131, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002286.
Sandhya M and Sridharan S 2022 On the negative relation between Arctic Oscillation and Indian Summer Monsoon; J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys. 241 105964, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2022.105964.
Saha S K, Pokhrel S and Chaudhari H S 2013 Influence of Eurasian snow on Indian summer monsoon in NCEP CFSv2 free run; Clim. Dyn. 41 1801–1815, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1617-4.
Shaman J and Tziperman E 2005 The effect of ENSO on Tibetan Plateau snow depth: A stationary wave teleconnection mechanism and implications for the south Asian monsoons; J. Clim. 18 2067–2079, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3391.1.
Sharma C S, Panda S N, Pradhan R P, Singh A and Kawamura A 2016 Precipitation and temperature changes in eastern India by multiple trend detection methods; Atmos. Res. 180, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.04.019.
Shukla J 1984 Predictability of time averages. Part II: The influence of the boundary forcing; In: Problems and prospects in long and medium range weather forecasting (eds) Burridge D M and Kallen E, Topics in Atmospheric and Oceanographic Sciences, Springer-Verlag, pp. 155–206.
Slivinski L C et al. 2019 Towards a more reliable historical reanalysis: Improvements for version 3 of the Twentieth Century reanalysis system; Quart. J., https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3598.
Tao S and Ding Y 1981 Observational evidence of the influence of the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau on the occurrence of heavy rain and severe convective storms in China; Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 62 23–30, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1981)062%3c0023:OEOTIO%3e2.0.CO;2.
Turner A G and Slingo J M 2011 Using idealized snow forcing to test teleconnections with the Indian summer monsoon in the Hadley Centre GCM; Clim. Dyn. 36 1717–1735, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0805-3.
Wu R and Kirtman B P 2007 Observed relationship of spring and summer East Asian rainfall with winter and spring Eurasian snow; J. Clim. 20 1285–1304, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4068.1.
Wu Z, Li J, Jiang Z and Ma T 2011 Modulation of the Tibetan Plateau snow cover on the ENSO Teleconnections: From the East Asian summer monsoon perspective; J. Clim., https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00135.1.
Xu L and Dirmeyer P 2011 Snow–atmosphere coupling strength in a global atmospheric model; Geophys. Res. Lett. 38 L13401, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048049.
Xu L, Gao H and Li Y Q 2009 Sensible heating over the Tibetan Plateau linked to the onset of Asian monsoon; Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett. 2 350–356, https://doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2009.11446833.
Yasunari T, Kitoh A and Tokioka T 1991 Local and remote responses to excessive snow mass over Eurasia appearing in the northern spring and summer climate: A study with the MRI GCM; J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn. 69(4) 473–487.
Ye D 1981 Some characteristics of the summer circulation over the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau and its neighbourhood; Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 62 14–19.
Yuan C, Li W, Guan Z and Yamagata T 2018 Impacts of April snow cover extent over Tibetan Plateau and the central Eurasia on Indian Ocean Dipole; J. Clim., https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5888.
Zang T, Wang T, Krinner G, Wang X, Gasser T, Peng S, Piao S and Yao T 2019 The weakening relationship between Eurasian spring snow cover and Indian monsoon rainfall; Sci. Adv. 2019(5) eaau8932.
Zhang Y, Li T and Wang B 2004 Decadal change of the spring snow depth over the Tibetan Plateau: The associated circulation and influence on the East Asian summer monsoon; J. Clim. 17 2780–2793, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-442(2004)017%3c2780:DCOTSS%3e2.0.CO;2.
Acknowledgement
The authors acknowledge India Meteorological Department (IMD) for providing high-resolution rainfall datasets and twentieth-century reanalysis (20CR) project for providing snow cover data used in this study. One of the authors (M Sandhya) also acknowledges Department of Science and Technology, India for providing Women Scientist-A fellowship and necessary funding for carrying out the present study (Ref: SR/WOS-A/EA-34/2018).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Dr M Sandhya, defined the problem and analysed the data. Dr S Sridharan, planned the analysis and discussion.
Corresponding author
Additional information
Communicated by Somnath Dasgupta
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Sandhya, M., Sridharan, S. On drastic change in the relationship between snow cover and Indian monsoon rainfall. J Earth Syst Sci 132, 101 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-023-02115-z
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-023-02115-z