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Next generation ground-motion prediction equations for Indo-Gangetic Plains, India

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Abstract

Seismic hazard analysis (SHA) of Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP), India, and its proximity to the Himalayas requires reliable ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). This study attempts to derive the GMPEs for IGP using strong-motion accelerometer data recorded from 2005 to 2015 on IGP. For regression, peak ground acceleration (PGA) and pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA) of 5% damped linear pseudo-absolute acceleration response spectra at 27 periods ranging from 0.01–10 s were used. Two-stage nonlinear regression trains the functional form of nonlinear magnitude scaling, distance scaling, and site conditions. The model includes a regionally independent geometric attenuation finite fault distance metric, style of faulting, shallow site response, basin response, hanging wall effect, hypocentre depth, regionally dependent anelastic attenuation, site conditions, and magnitude-dependent aleatory variability. Developed GMPEs are validated for active crustal continental earthquakes for epicentral distances REPI ranging from 10–1500 km, magnitude ranging from 3.3–7.9, and focal depths 1–70 km. The GMPEs developed are compared with the Campbell and Bozorgnia 2008, 2013 and 2014, and North Indian GMPEs, which are agreed upon consistently. The model can predict the horizontal ground motion for SHA on IGP, considering possible maximum magnitude earthquakes from the seismic gaps of the Himalayas.

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Data and resources

Strong motion database from https://seismo.gov.in/. The Global Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) catalog is from http://www.globalcmt.org/. The Next Generation Attenuation West2 (NGA-West2) database is available at https://peer.berkeley.edu/thrust-areas/data-sciences/databases, Consortium of Organizations for Strong Motion Observation Systems Virtual Data Center (https://strongmotioncenter.org/vdc/scripts/earthquakes.plx). Population data from Socio-economic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC); Center for International Earth Science Information (2005). Maps and figures are plotted with the help of Arc-GIS 10.5 and MATLAB 2015 software.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thank Dr Kenneth W Campbell, Consulting LLC, Beaverton, Oregon, USA, for the detailed review of the results and manuscript. We would also like to thank PESMOS IIT Roorkee Department of Earthquake Engineering and National Centre for Seismology (NCS) Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India, for providing us strong motion database. At last, the authors would also like to express their gratitude and thanks to the editor and two anonymous reviewers for their careful review and valuable comments and suggestions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geology and Geophysics, Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur, 721 302, West Bengal, India

    Chhotu Kumar Keshri & William Kumar Mohanty

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  1. Chhotu Kumar Keshri
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  2. William Kumar Mohanty
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Contributions

The contribution of both authors to this study is as follows. Chhotu Kumar Keshri: Conceptualization, data curation, computation, methodology, analysis, and writing – original draft preparation. William Kumar Mohanty: Conceptualization, supervision, reviewing, and editing.

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Correspondence to William Kumar Mohanty.

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Communicated by Somnath Dasgupta

Supplementary materials pertaining to this article are available on the Journal of Earth System Science website (http://www.ias.ac.in/Journals/Journal_of_Earth_System_Science).

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Keshri, C.K., Mohanty, W.K. Next generation ground-motion prediction equations for Indo-Gangetic Plains, India. J Earth Syst Sci 132, 85 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-023-02092-3

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