Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

Infectious Disease Modeling: From Traditional to Evolutionary Algorithms

  • Review article
  • Published:
Archives of Computational Methods in Engineering Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The recent worldwide catastrophe named COVID-19 has motivated experts from various fields to contribute to tackling the situation, such as by forecasting the spread of infectious disease, which is the need of the hour. Screening, contact tracing, forecasting, and medication development have all seen tremendous advancements as a result of the technical and medical industry’s evolution. Models utilized in previously prevailed infectious diseases across the globe gave them a base to study and implement in the current scenario. This work aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the Compartmental, Time-Series, and Machine Learning (ML), including the subset Deep Learning (DL) models illustrating the spread of infectious diseases. Reliable predictions can help in the choice and application of measures to scale back the resulting morbidity and mortality. This paper highlights the studies from traditional to evolutionary algorithms carried out in the field of mathematics, statistics, ML, and DL to model the spread of infectious diseases, with special focus on COVID-19. It also addresses the scope of improvement in the research work done by utilizing such algorithms. The implemented models have shown the need to include additional factors and characteristics to enhance accuracy.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7

Similar content being viewed by others

Data Availability

Not applicable.

References

  1. “What are infectious diseases?,” @yourgenome · Science website. [Online]. Available: https://www.yourgenome.org/facts/what-are-infectious-diseases/. Accessed 10 Dec 2022

  2. Intermountain Healthcare (2020) “What’s the difference between a pandemic, an epidemic, endemic, and an outbreak?,” intermountainhealthcare.org

  3. Covid-19 - events as they happen, https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/events-as-the (2020). Accessed 10 Dec 2022

  4. BBC News (2020) Coronavirus: Greatest test since World War Two, says UN chief, BBC, 31 March. Available: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52114829. Accessed 10 Dec 2022

  5. Carlos WG, Dela Cruz CS, Cao B, Pasnick S, Jamil S (2020) Covid19 disease due to sars-cov-2 (novel coronavirus). Am J Respir Crit Care Med 201(4):P7–P8

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  6. Wang C, Horby PW, Hayden FG, Gao GF (2020) A novel coronavirus outbreak of global health concern. The lancet 395(10223):470–473

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  7. Zhou P, Yang X-L, Wang X-G, Hu B, Zhang L, Zhang W, Si H-R, Zhu Y, Li B, Huang C-L et al (2020) A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin. Nature 579(7798):270–273

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  8. Li Q, Guan X, Wu P, Wang X, Zhou L, Tong Y, Ren R, Leung KS, Lau EH, Wong JY et al (2020) Early transmission dynamics in wuhan, china, of novel coronavirus–infected pneumonia. N Engl J Med 382:1199–1207. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  9. Bogoch II, Watts A, Thomas-Bachli A, Huber C, Kraemer MU, Khan K (2020) Pneumonia of unknown aetiology in wuhan, china: potential for international spread via commercial air travel. J Travel Med 27(2):taaa008

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  10. Zou L, Ruan F, Huang M, Liang L, Huang H, Hong Z, Yu J, Kang M, Song Y, Xia J et al (2020) Sars-cov-2 viral load in upper respiratory specimens of infected patients. N Engl J Med 382(12):1177–1179

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  11. Brauer F, Castillo-Chavez C, Castillo-Chavez C (2012) Mathematical models in population biology and epidemiology, vol 2. Springer

    Book  Google Scholar 

  12. Keeling M, Rohani P (2018) Modeling infectious diseases in humans and animals. Princeton University Press

    Google Scholar 

  13. Murray JD (1989) Mathematical biology, vol. 19 of biomathematics. Springer

    Google Scholar 

  14. Murray J (2003) II. Spatial models and biomedical applications. Springer

    Google Scholar 

  15. Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation reports. Who.int. [Online]. Available: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/. Accessed 8 Feb 2023

  16. ArcGIS Dashboards. Arcgis.com. [Online]. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6. Accessed 8 Feb 2023

  17. Baleanu D, Mohammadi H, Rezapour S (2020) A fractional differential equation model for the covid-19 transmission by using the caputo–fabrizio derivative. Adv Differ Equ 2020(1):1–27

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  18. Nda¨ırou F, Area I, Nieto JJ, Torres DF (2020) Mathematical modeling of covid-19 transmission dynamics with a case study of Wuhan. Chaos Solitons Fractals 135:109846

    Article  MathSciNet  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  19. Khan MA, Atangana A (2020) Modeling the dynamics of novel coronavirus (2019-ncov) with fractional derivative. Alex Eng J 59(4):2379–2389

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Chen T-M, Rui J, Wang Q-P, Zhao Z-Y, Cui J-A, Yin L (2020) A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus. Infect Dis Poverty 9(1):1–8

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  21. Ivorra B, Ferr’andez MR, Vela-P’erez M, Ramos AM (2020) Mathematical modeling of the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) taking into account the undetected infections. The case of China. Commun Nonlinear Sci Numer Simul 88:105303

    Article  MathSciNet  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  22. Atangana A, Araz SI (2021) Nonlinear equations with global differential and integral operators: existence, uniqueness with application to epidemiology. Results Phys 20:103593

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Atangana A, I˘gret Araz S (2020) Mathematical model of covid-19 spread in turkey and south africa: theory, methods, and applications. Adv Differ Equ 1:1–89

    MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  24. Atangana A (2020) Modelling the spread of covid-19 with new fractalfractional operators: can the lockdown save mankind before vaccination? Chaos Solitons Fractals 136:109860

    Article  MathSciNet  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  25. Tang B, Wang X, Li Q, Bragazzi NL, Tang S, Xiao Y, Wu J (2020) Estimation of the transmission risk of the 2019-ncov and its implication for public health interventions. J Clin Med 9(2):462

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  26. Sarkar K, Khajanchi S, Nieto JJ (2020) Modeling and forecasting the covid-19 pandemic in India. Chaos Solitons Fractals 139:110049

    Article  MathSciNet  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  27. Giordano G, Blanchini F, Bruno R, Colaneri P, Di Filippo A, Di Matteo A, Colaneri M (2020) Modelling the covid-19 epidemic and implementation of population-wide interventions in Italy. Nat Med 26(6):855–860

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  28. Gatto M, Bertuzzo E, Mari L, Miccoli S, Carraro L, Casagrandi R, Rinaldo A (2020) Spread and dynamics of the covid-19 epidemic in Italy: effects of emergency containment measures. Proc Natl Acad Sci 117(19):10484–10491

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  29. Khajanchi S, Sarkar K (2020) Forecasting the daily and cumulative number of cases for the covid-19 pandemic in India. Chaos Interdiscipl J Nonlinear Sci 30(7):071101

    Article  MathSciNet  CAS  Google Scholar 

  30. Gumel AB, Ruan S, Day T, Watmough J, Brauer F, Van den Driessche P, Gabrielson D, Bowman C, Alexander ME, Ardal S et al (2004) Modelling strategies for controlling sars outbreaks. Proc R Soc Lond Ser B Biol Sci 271(1554):2223–2232

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Liu Z, Magal P, Seydi O, Webb G (2020) A covid-19 epidemic model with latency period. Infect Dis Model 5:323–337

    CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  32. Khajanchi S, Sarkar K, Mondal J (2020) Dynamics of the covid-19 pandemic in India. arXiv preprint arXiv:2005.06286

  33. Wu JT, Leung K, Leung GM (2020) Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-ncov outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study. The Lancet 395(10225):689–697

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  34. Samui P, Mondal J, Khajanchi S (2020) A mathematical model for covid-19 transmission dynamics with a case study of India. Chaos Solitons Fractals 140:110173

    Article  MathSciNet  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  35. Memon Z, Qureshi S, Memon BR (2021) Assessing the role of quarantine and isolation as control strategies for covid-19 outbreak: a case study. Chaos Solitons Fractals 144:110655

    Article  MathSciNet  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  36. Ahmad S, Owyed S, Abdel-Aty A-H, Mahmoud EE, Shah K, Alrabaiah H et al (2021) Mathematical analysis of covid-19 via new mathematical model. Chaos Solitons Fractals 143:110585

    Article  MathSciNet  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  37. Singh R, Adhikari R (2020) Age-structured impact of social distancing on the covid-19 epidemic in India. arXiv preprint arXiv:2003.12055

  38. Muñoz-Fernández GA, Seoane JM, Seoane-Sepúlveda JB (2021) A SIR-type model describing the successive waves of COVID-19. Chaos Solitons Fractals 144:110682

    Article  MathSciNet  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  39. Bhola J, Venkateswaran VR, Koul M (2020) Corona epidemic in Indian context: predictive mathematical modelling. MedRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.03.20047175

    Google Scholar 

  40. Das A, Dhar A, Goyal S, Kundu A, Pandey S (2021) Covid-19: analytic results for a modified seir model and comparison of different intervention strategies. Chaos Solitons Fractals 144:110595

    Article  MathSciNet  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  41. Ranjan R (2020) Predictions for covid-19 outbreak in India using epidemiological models. MedRxiv 10:16. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.02.20051466

    Google Scholar 

  42. Patrikar S, Poojary D, Basannar D, Faujdar D, Kunte R (2020) Projections for novel coronavirus (covid-19) and evaluation of epidemic response strategies for India. Med J Armed Forces India 76(3):268-275.15

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  43. Roy S (2020) Covid-19 pandemic: impact of lockdown, contact and noncontact transmissions on infection dynamics. MedRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.04.20050328

  44. Mazumder A, Bharadiya V, Berry P, Arora M, Agarwal M, Gupta M, Parameswaran GG, Behera P (2020) Study of epidemiological characteristics and in-silico analysis of the effect of interventions in the sars-cov-2 epidemic in India. MedRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.05.20053884

    Google Scholar 

  45. Rajendrakumar AL, Nair ATN, Nangia C, Chourasia PK, Chourasia MK, Syed MG, Nair AS, Nair AB, Koya MSF (2021) Epidemic landscape and forecasting of sars-cov-2 in India. J Epidemiol Glob Health 11(1):55

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  46. Ranjan R (2020) Estimating the final epidemic size for covid-19 outbreak using improved epidemiological models. MedRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.12.20061002

  47. Tiwari A (2020) Modelling and analysis of covid-19 epidemic in India. J Saf Sci Resil 1(2):135–140

    Google Scholar 

  48. Roy A, Kar S (2020) Nature of transmission of covid19 in India. Medrxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.14.20065821

  49. Mandal S, Bhatnagar T, Arinaminpathy N, Agarwal A, Chowdhury A, Murhekar M, Gangakhedkar RR, Sarkar S (2020) Prudent public health intervention strategies to control the coronavirus disease 2019 transmission in India: a mathematical model-based approach. Indian J Med Res 151(2–3):190

    CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  50. Rani V, Jakka A (2020) Forecasting COVID-19 cases in India using machine learning models. In: 2020 International Conference on Smart Technologies in Computing, Electrical and Electronics (ICSTCEE), 2020

  51. Pandey G, Chaudhary P, Gupta R, Pal S (2020) Seir and regression model based covid-19 outbreak predictions in India. arXiv preprint arXiv:2004.00958

  52. Chatterjee K, Chatterjee K, Kumar A, Shankar S (2020) Healthcare impact of covid-19 epidemic in India: a stochastic mathematical model. Med J Armed Forces India 76(2):147–155

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  53. Khajji B, Kouidere A, Elhia M, Balatif O, Rachik M (2021) Fractional optimal control problem for an age-structured model of covid-19 transmission. Chaos Solitons Fractals 143:110625

    Article  MathSciNet  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  54. Anastassopoulou C, Russo L, Tsakris A, Siettos C (2020) Data-based analysis, modelling and forecasting of the covid-19 outbreak. PLoS ONE 15(3):e0230405.11

    Article  Google Scholar 

  55. Alaraj M, Majdalawieh M, Nizamuddin N (2021) Modeling and forecasting of covid-19 using a hybrid dynamic model based on seird with arima corrections. Infect Dis Model 6:98–111

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  56. Kınacı H, Ünsal MG, Kasap R (2021) A close look at 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID 19) infections in Turkey using time series analysis & efficiency analysis. Chaos Solitons Fractals 143(110583):110583

    Article  MathSciNet  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  57. Mohan S, Abugabah A, Kumar Singh S, Kashif Bashir A, Sanzogni L (2022) An approach to forecast impact of covid-19 using supervised machine learning model. Softw Pract Exp 52(4):824–840

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  58. Maleki M, Mahmoudi MR, Wraith D, Pho K-H (2020) Time series modelling to forecast the confirmed and recovered cases of covid-19. Travel Med Infect Dis 37:101742

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  59. Ahmar AS, Boj E (2020) Will covid-19 confirmed cases in the usa reach 3 million? a forecasting approach by using Suttearima method. Curr Res Behav Sci 1:100002

    Article  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  60. Benvenuto D, Giovanetti M, Vassallo L, Angeletti S, Ciccozzi M (2020) Application of the arima model on the covid-2019 epidemic dataset. Data Brief 29:105340

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  61. Khan FM, Gupta R (2020) Arima and nar based prediction model for time series analysis of covid-19 cases in India. J Saf Sci Resil 1(1):12–18

    Google Scholar 

  62. Painuli D, Mishra D, Bhardwaj S, Aggarwal M (2021) Forecast and prediction of covid-19 using machine learning. In: Data Science for COVID19. Elsevier, pp 381–397

  63. Kumar P, Singh RK, Nanda C, Kalita H, Patairiya S, Sharma YD, Rani M, Bhagavathula AS (2020) Forecasting covid-19 impact in India using pandemic waves nonlinear growth models. MedRxiv 2:379

    Google Scholar 

  64. Kalantari M (2021) Forecasting covid-19 pandemic using optimal singular spectrum analysis. Chaos Solitons Fractals 142:110547

    Article  MathSciNet  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  65. Guleryuz D (2021) Forecasting outbreak of covid-19 in turkey; comparison of Box–Jenkins, Brown’s exponential smoothing and long short-term memory models. Process Saf Environ Prot 149:927–935

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  66. Alzahrani SI, Aljamaan IA, Al-Fakih EA (2020) Forecasting the spread of the covid-19 pandemic in Saudi Arabia using arima prediction model under current public health interventions. J Infect Public Health 13(7):914-919.13

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  67. Chakraborty T, Ghosh I (2020) Real-time forecasts and risk assessment of novel coronavirus (covid-19) cases: a data-driven analysis. Chaos Solitons Fractals 135:109850

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  68. Ahmar AS, del Val EB (2020) Suttearima: Short-term forecasting method, a case: covid-19 and stock market in spain. Sci Total Environ 729:138883

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  69. Sahai AK, Rath N, Sood V, Singh MP (2020) Arima modelling & forecasting of covid-19 in top five affected countries. Diabetes Metab Syndr Clin Res Rev 14(5):1419-1427.10

    Article  Google Scholar 

  70. Ünlü R, Namlı E (2020) Machine learning and classical forecasting methods based decision support systems for COVID-19. Comput Mater Contin 64(3):1383–1399

    Google Scholar 

  71. Mishra P, Al Khatib AMG, Sardar I, Mohammed J, Ray M, Manish K, Rawat D, Pandey S, Dubey A, Feys J et al (2020) Modelling and forecasting of covid-19 in India. J Infect Dis Epidemiol 6(5):1–11

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  72. Satu M, Howlader KC, Mahmud M, Kaiser MS, Shariful Islam SM, Quinn JM, Alyami SA, Moni MA et al (2021) Short-term prediction of covid-19 cases using machine learning models. Appl Sci 11(9):4266

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  73. Satrio CBA, Darmawan W, Nadia BU, Hanafiah N (2021) Time series analysis and forecasting of coronavirus disease in Indonesia using arima model and prophet. Proc Comput Sci 179:524–532

    Article  Google Scholar 

  74. Ogundokun RO, Awotunde JB (2020), Machine learning prediction for covid 19 pandemic in India. medRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.20.20107847

  75. Maleki M, Mahmoudi MR, Heydari MH, Pho K-H (2020) Modeling and forecasting the spread and death rate of coronavirus (covid-19) in the world using time series models. Chaos Solitons Fractals 140:110151

    Article  MathSciNet  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  76. Young PC, Chen F (2021) Monitoring and forecasting the covid-19 epidemic in the UK. Annu Rev Control 51:488–499

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  77. Borghi PH, Zakordonets O, Teixeira JP (2021) A covid-19 time series forecasting model based on mlp ann. Proc Comput Sci 181:940–947

    Article  Google Scholar 

  78. Shahin AI, Almotairi S (2021) A deep learning bilstm encoding-decoding model for covid-19 pandemic spread forecasting. Fractal Fracti 5(4):175

    Article  Google Scholar 

  79. Sujath RAA, Chatterjee JM, Hassanien AE (2020) A machine learning forecasting model for covid-19 pandemic in India. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 34(7):959–972

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  80. Ahmed SZ (2020) Analysis and forecasting the outbreak of covid-19 in ethiopia using machine learning. Eur J Comput Sci Inform Technol 8(4):1–13

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  81. Mojjada RK, Yadav A, Prabhu A, Natarajan Y (2020) Machine learning models for covid-19 future forecasting. Mater Today Proc. Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matpr.2020.10.962

  82. Rustam F, Reshi AA, Mehmood A, Ullah S, On B-W, Aslam W, Choi GS (2020) Covid-19 future forecasting using supervised machine learning models. IEEE access 8:101489–101499

    Article  Google Scholar 

  83. Ballı S (2021) Data analysis of covid-19 pandemic and short-term cumulative case forecasting using machine learning time series methods. Chaos Solitons Fractals 142:110512

    Article  MathSciNet  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  84. Jojoa M, Garcia-Zapirain B (2020) Forecasting covid 19 confirmed cases using machine learning: the case of America. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202009.0228.v1

  85. Farooq J, Bazaz MA (2021) A deep learning algorithm for modeling and forecasting of covid-19 in five worst affected states of India. Alex Eng J 60(1):587–596

    Article  Google Scholar 

  86. Kafieh R, Arian R, Saeedizadeh N, Amini Z, Serej ND, Minaee S, Yadav SK, Vaezi A, Rezaei N, Haghjooy Javanmard S (2021) Covid-19 in Iran: forecasting pandemic using deep learning. Comput Math Methods Med. https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6927985

  87. Da Silva RG, Ribeiro MHDM, Mariani VC, dos Santos Coelho L (2020) Forecasting brazilian and american covid-19 cases based on artificial intelligence coupled with climatic exogenous variables. Chaos Solitons Fractals 139:110027

    Article  MathSciNet  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  88. Mrudula O, Sowjanya A (2020) Pandemic analyzer for efficient prediction of covid-19 in India using machine learning algorithms. Eur J Mol Clin Med 7(3):2271–2285

    Google Scholar 

  89. Watson GL, Xiong D, Zhang L, Zoller JA, Shamshoian J, Sundin P, Bufford T, Rimoin AW, Suchard MA, Ramirez CM (2021) Pandemic velocity: forecasting covid-19 in the us with a machine learning & Bayesian time series compartmental model. PLoS Comput Biol 17(3):e1008837

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  90. de Oliveira LS, Gruetzmacher SB, Teixeira JP (2021) Covid-19 time series prediction. Proc Comput Sci 181:973–980

    Article  Google Scholar 

  91. Baldé MAMT (2020) Fitting SIR model to COVID-19 pandemic data and comparative forecasting with machine learning. bioRxiv

  92. Ahmad WMAW, Nawi MAA, Zainon WMNW, Noor NFM, Hamzah FM, Ghazali FMM, Alam MK (2021) Forecasting cumulative covid-19 cases in malaysia and rising to unprecedented levels. Bang J Med Sci 20(3):504–510

    Google Scholar 

  93. Sujatha K, Kishore KV, Rao BS (2020) Machine learning models for forecasting confirmed, recovered and deceased covid-19 cases in India. Int J Control Autom 13(4):841–854

    Google Scholar 

  94. Ahmad HF, Khaloofi H, Azhar Z, Algosaibi A, Hussain J (2021) An improved covid-19 forecasting by infectious disease modelling using machine learning. Appl Sci 11(23):11426. https://doi.org/10.3390/app112311426

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  95. Elsheikh AH, Saba AI, Abd Elaziz M, Lu S, Shanmugan S, Muthuramalingam T, Kumar R, Mosleh AO, Essa F, Shehabeldeen TA (2021) Deep learning-based forecasting model for covid-19 outbreak in Saudi Arabia. Process Saf Environ Prot 149:223–233

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  96. Devaraj J, Elavarasan RM, Pugazhendhi R, Shafiullah G, Ganesan S, Jeysree AK, Khan IA, Hossain E (2021) Forecasting of covid-19 cases using deep learning models: is it reliable and practically significant? Results Phys 21:103817

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  97. Lucas B, Vahedi B, Karimzadeh M (2022) A spatiotemporal machine learning approach to forecasting covid-19 incidence at the county level in the usa. Int J Data Sci Anal 15(3):247–266

    Google Scholar 

  98. Chandra R, Jain A, Singh Chauhan D (2022) Deep learning via lstm models for covid-19 infection forecasting in India. PLoS ONE 17(1):e0262708

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  99. Istaiteh O, Owais T, Al-Madi N, Abu-Soud S (2020) Machine learning approaches for covid-19 forecasting. In: 2020 International Conference on intelligent data science technologies and applications (IDSTA), IEEE, 2020, pp 50–57

  100. Kumar RL, Khan F, Din S, Band SS, Mosavi A, Ibeke E (2021) Recurrent neural network and reinforcement learning model for covid-19 prediction. Front Public Health. 9. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.744100

  101. Shastri S, Singh K, Kumar S, Kour P, Mansotra V (2020) Time series forecasting of covid-19 using deep learning models: India-usa comparative case study. Chaos Solitons Fractals 140:110227

    Article  MathSciNet  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  102. Mbilong PM, Berhich A, Jebli I, El Kassiri A, Belouadha F-Z (2021) Artificial intelligence-enabled and period-aware forecasting covid-19 spread. Ingénierie des systèmes d information 26(1):47–57

    Article  Google Scholar 

  103. Olsen F, Schillaci C, Ibrahim M, Lipani A (2022) Borough-level covid-19 forecasting in london using deep learning techniques and a novel Msemoran’s i loss function. Results Phys 35:105374

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  104. Rashed EA, Hirata A (2021) Infectivity upsurge by covid-19 viral variants in Japan: evidence from deep learning modeling. Int J Environ Res Public Health 18(15):7799

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  105. Chimmula VKR, Zhang L (2020) Time series forecasting of covid-19 transmission in canada using lstm networks. Chaos Solitons Fractals 135:109864

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  106. Sweilam N, Al-Mekhlafi S, Baleanu D (2021) A hybrid stochastic fractional order coronavirus (2019-ncov) mathematical model. Chaos Solitons Fractals 145:110762

    Article  MathSciNet  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  107. Tuan NH, Mohammadi H, Rezapour S (2020) A mathematical model for covid-19 transmission by using the caputo fractional derivative. Chaos Solitons Fractals 140:110107

    Article  MathSciNet  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  108. Nag S (2020) A mathematical model in the time of covid-19. https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/8n92h

  109. Shaikh AS, Shaikh IN, Nisar KS (2020) A mathematical model of covid-19 using fractional derivative: outbreak in India with dynamics of transmission and control. Adv Differ Equ 2020(1):1–19

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  110. Chu Y-M, Ali A, Khan MA, Islam S, Ullah S (2021) Dynamics of fractional order covid-19 model with a case study of Saudi Arabia. Results Phys 21:103787

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  111. Cherniha R, Davydovych V (2020), A mathematical model for the coronavirus covid-19 outbreak. arXiv preprint arXiv:2004.01487

  112. Castillo O, Melin P (2020) Forecasting of covid-19 time series for countries in the world based on a hybrid approach combining the fractal dimension and fuzzy logic. Chaos Solitons Fractals 140:110242

    Article  MathSciNet  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  113. Abbasimehr H, Paki R, Bahrini A (2021) Improving the performance of deep learning models using statistical features: the case study of covid19 forecasting. Math Methods Appl Sci 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1002/mma.7500

  114. Mazen TS (2020), A novel machine learning based model for covid-19 prediction. Int J Adv Comput Sci Appl 11(11). https://doi.org/10.14569/IJACSA.2020.0111166

  115. Al-Qaness MA, Saba AI, Elsheikh AH, Abd Elaziz M, Ibrahim RA, Lu S, Hemedan AA, Shanmugan S, Ewees AA (2021) Efficient artificial intelligence forecasting models for covid-19 outbreak in Russia and Brazil. Process Saf Environ Protection 149:399–409

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  116. Salgotra R, Gandomi M, Gandomi AH (2020) Time series analysis and forecast of the covid-19 pandemic in India using genetic programming. Chaos Solitons Fractals 138:109945

    Article  MathSciNet  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  117. Daughton AR, Generous N, Priedhorsky R, Deshpande A (2017) An approach to and web-based tool for infectious disease outbreak intervention analysis. Sci Rep 7(1):1–11

    Google Scholar 

  118. Rodrigues HS (2016) Application of sir epidemiological model: new trends. arXiv preprint arXiv:1611.02565

  119. Longini IM Jr, Nizam A, Xu S, Ungchusak K, Hanshaoworakul W, Cummings DA, Halloran ME (2005) Containing pandemic influenza at the source. Science 309(5737):1083–1087

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  120. Longini IM Jr, Halloran ME, Nizam A, Yang Y (2004) Containing pandemic influenza with antiviral agents. Am J Epidemiol 159(7):623–633

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  121. Sorensen SW, Sansom SL, Brooks JT, Marks G, Begier EM, Buchacz K, DiNenno EA, Mermin JH, Kilmarx PH (2012) A mathematical model of comprehensive test-and-treat services and hiv incidence among men who have sex with men in the United States. PLoS ONE 7(2):e29098

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  122. Lasry A, Sansom SL, Hicks KA, Uzunangelov V (2011) A model for allocating cdc’s hiv prevention resources in the United States. Health Care Manag Sci 14(1):115–124

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  123. Sayan M, Hınçal E, Şanlıdağ T, Kaymakamzade B, Sa’ad FT, Baba IA (2018) Dynamics of hiv/aids in Turkey from 1985 to 2016. Qual Quant 52(1):711–723

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  124. Side S, Mulbar U, Sidjara S, Sanusi W (1830) A seir model for transmission of tuberculosis. AIP Conf Proc 2017:020004

    Google Scholar 

  125. Yoneyama T, Krishnamoorthy MS (2010), Influence of the cold war upon influenza pandemic of 1957–1958. In: 2010 IEEE Sixth International Conference on e-Science, IEEE, 2010, pp 9–16

  126. Halloran ME, Ferguson NM, Eubank S, Longini IM Jr, Cummings DA, Lewis B, Xu S, Fraser C, Vullikanti A, Germann TC et al (2008) Modeling targeted layered containment of an influenza pandemic 18 in the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci 105(12):4639–4644

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  127. Wu JT, Riley S, Fraser C, Leung GM (2006) Reducing the impact of the next influenza pandemic using household-based public health interventions. PLoS Med 3(9):e361

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  128. Yoneyama T, Krishnamoorthy MS (2010) Simulating the spread of influenza pandemic of 1918–1919 considering the effect of the first world war. arXiv preprint arXiv:1006.0019

  129. Bin S, Sun G, Chen C-C (2019) Spread of infectious disease modeling and analysis of different factors on spread of infectious disease based on cellular automata. Int J Environ Res Public Health 16(23):4683

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  130. Bootsma MC, Ferguson NM (2007) The effect of public health measures on the 1918 influenza pandemic in us cities. Proc Natl Acad Sci 104(18):7588–7593

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  131. Mills CE, Robins JM, Lipsitch M (2004) Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza. Nature 432(7019):904–906

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  132. Mkhatshwa T, Mummert A (2010), Modeling super-spreading events for infectious diseases: case study sars. arXiv preprint arXiv:1007.0908

  133. Gani R, Leach S (2001) Transmission potential of smallpox in contemporary populations. Nature 414(6865):748–751

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  134. Mirarabshahi AS, Kargari M (2019) A disease outbreak prediction model using bayesian inference: a case of influenza. Int J Travel Med GlobHealth 7(3):91–98

    Article  Google Scholar 

  135. Baggaley RF, Irvine MA, Leber W, Cambiano V, Figueroa J, McMullen H, Anderson J, Santos AC, Terris-Prestholt F, Miners A et al (2017) Cost-effectiveness of screening for hiv in primary care: a health economics modelling analysis. The Lancet HIV 4(10):e465–e474

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  136. Schwartz EJ, Choi B, Rempala GA (2015) Estimating epidemic parameters: application to h1n1 pandemic data. Math Biosci 270:198–203

    Article  MathSciNet  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  137. Boelle P, Bernillon P, Desenclos J (2009) A preliminary estimation of the reproduction ratio for new influenza a (h1n1) from the outbreak in mexico, march-april 2009. Eurosurveillance 14(19):19205

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  138. Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Cauchemez S, Hanage WP, Van Kerkhove MD, Hollingsworth TD, Griffin J, Baggaley RF, Jenkins HE, Lyons EJ et al (2009) Pandemic potential of a strain of influenza a (h1n1): early findings. Science 324(5934):1557–1561

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  139. Chowell G, Bettencourt LM, Johnson N, Alonso WJ, Viboud C (2008) The 1918–1919 influenza pandemic in england and wales: spatial patterns in transmissibility and mortality impact. Proc R Soc B Biol Sci 275(1634):501–509

    Article  Google Scholar 

  140. Chowell G, Nishiura H, Bettencourt LM (2007) Comparative estimation of the reproduction number for pandemic influenza from daily case notification data. J R Soc Interface 4(12):155–166

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  141. Diah IM, Aziz N (2019) Stochastic modelling for pneumonia incidence: a conceptual framework. AIP Conf Proc 2138:050010

    Article  Google Scholar 

  142. Eichner M, Dietz K (2003) Transmission potential of smallpox: estimates based on detailed data from an outbreak. Am J Epidemiol 158(2):110–117

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  143. Malhotra I, Goel N (2022) Forecasting the temporal evolution of COVID-19. In: 2022 4th International Conference on artificial intelligence and speech technology (AIST), Delhi, India, 2022, pp 1–6, https://doi.org/10.1109/AIST55798.2022.10065110.

  144. Malhotra I, Tayal A (2021) Statistical modeling and evaluation of air quality impact due to COVID-19 lockdown. In: 2021 8th International Conference on computing for sustainable global development (IndiaCom), 2021, pp 318–324

Download references

Funding

This research received no external funding.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Contributions

Both the authors listed have made a substantial, direct, and intellectual contribution to the work, as well as approved it for publication.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Isha Malhotra.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of Interest

On behalf of all authors, the corresponding author states that there is no confict of interest.

Ethical Approval

Not applicable.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Malhotra, I., Goel, N. Infectious Disease Modeling: From Traditional to Evolutionary Algorithms. Arch Computat Methods Eng 31, 663–699 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11831-023-09997-8

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11831-023-09997-8

Navigation