Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Influence of ENSO Events on Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific

  • Published:
Journal of Ocean University of China Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Based on an analysis of 51-year (1965–2015) data, the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on tropical cyclone (TC) activity is examined over the western North Pacific (WNP). The total number of TCs formed in the entire WNP reduces by about 3.4 TCs per year in La Niña years, whereas TCs have an equivalent genesis number between El Niño years and climatology. During El Niño years, the frequency of TC formation increases remarkably in the southeast quadrant (140°E–180°, 0°–17°N) and decreases in the northwest quadrant (120°–140°E, 17°–30°N). During La Niña years, TCs tend to form in the northwest and southwest quadrants (120°-140°E, 0°–17°N) quadrants. TCs tend to become long-lived in the peak season (from July to September) of El Niño years and during strong El Niño events. TC genesis shows a southeastward positive shift in terms of lifetime and intensity during El Niño years, thus more super TCs (winds ≥ 58.64ms−1) are formed in the southeast quadrant. Further analysis using the genesis potential index (GPI) indicates that the interannual variations in the TC genesis and track are significantly influenced by a combination of large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic conditions.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Bister, M., and Emanuel, K. A., 1998. Dissipative heating and hurricane intensity. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 52: 233–240.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bister, M., and Emanuel, K. A., 2002a. Low frequency variability of tropical cyclone potential intensity. 1. Interannual to interdecadal variability. Journal of Geophysical Research, 107 (D24): 4801, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD000776.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bister, M., and Emanuel, K. A., 2002b. Low frequency variability of tropical cyclone potential intensity. 2. Climatology for 1982–1995. Journal of Geophysical Research, 107 (D22): 4621, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD000780.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Camargo, S. J., and Sobel, A. H., 2005. Western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity and ENSO. Journal of Climate, 18: 2996–3006, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3457.1.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Camargo, S. J., Emanuel, K. A., and Sobel, A. H., 2007. Use of a genesis potential index to diagnose ENSO effects on tropical cyclone genesis. Journal of Climate, 20: 4819–4834.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chan, J. C. L., 1985. Tropical cyclone activity in the northwest Pacific in relation to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon. Monthly Weather Revivew, 113: 599–606.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chan, J. C. L., 2000. Tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific associated with El Niño and La Niña events. Journal of Climate, 13: 2960–2972.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chan, J. C. L., 2008. Decadal variations of intense typhoon occurrence in the western North Pacific. Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 464: 249–272.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen, T.-C., Weng, S. P., Yamazaki, N., and Kiehne, S., 1998. Interannual variation in the tropical cyclone formation over the western North Pacific. Monthly Weather Revivew, 126: 1080–1090.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chu, P. S., 2004. ENSO and tropical cyclone activity. In: Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past, Present, and Potential. Murnane, R. J., and Liu, K. B., eds., Columbia University Press, New York, 297–332.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dong, K., 1988. El Niño and tropical cyclone frequency in the Australian region and the northwest Pacific. Australian Meteorological Magazine, 36: 219–225.

    Google Scholar 

  • Du, Y., Yang, L., and Xie, S.-P., 2011. Tropical Indian Ocean influence on northwest Pacific tropical cyclones in summer following strong El Niño. Journal of Climate, 24: 315–322.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Emanuel, K. A., 1988. The maximum intensity of hurricanes. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 45: 1143–1155.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Emanuel, K. A., 2001. The contribution of tropical cyclones to the oceans’ meridional heat transport. Journal of Geophysical Research, 106: 14771–14782.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Emanuel, K. A., 2005. Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436 (7051): 686–688.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Emanuel, K. A., and Nolan, D. S., 2004. Tropical cyclone activity and global climate (Reprints). 26th Conference on Hurricane and Tropical Meteorology. American Meteorological Society, Miami, 240–241.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gray, W. M., 1968. Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms. Monthly Weather Review, 96: 669–700.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gray, W. M., 1979. Hurricanes: Their formation, structure and likely role in the tropical circulation. In: Meteorology over the Tropical Oceans. Shaw, D. B., ed., Royal Meteorological Society, Bracknell, 155–218.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gray, W. M., 1984. Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency. Part II: Forecasting its variability. Monthly Weather Revivew, 112: 1669–1683.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W. D., Deaven, D. G., Gandin, L. S., Iredell, M., Saha, S., White, G. J., Woollen, J. S., Zhu, Y., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Higgins, W. J., Janowiak, J. E., Mo, K. C., Ropelewski, C. F., Wang, J., Leetmaa, A., Reynolds, R. W., Jenne, R. L., and Joseph, D., 1996. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 77 (3): 437–471.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim, H.-M., Webster, P. J., and Curry, J. A., 2011. Modulation of North Pacific tropical cyclone activity by three phases of ENSO. Journal of Climate, 24: 1839–1849.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnamurthy, L., Vecchi, G., Msadek, R., Murakami, H., Wittenberg, A., and Zeng, F., 2016. Impact of strong ENSO on regional tropical cyclone activity in a high-resolution climate model in the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans. Journal of Climate, 29: 2375–2394.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lander, M. A., 1994. An exploratory analysis of the relationship between tropical storm formation in the western North Pacific and ENSO. Monthly Weather Revivew, 122: 636–651.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li, C., 1988. Actions of typhoon over the western Pacific (including the South China Sea) and El Niño. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 5: 107–115.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu, K., and Chan, J., 2013. Inactive period of western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity in 1998–2011. Journal of Climate, 26: 2614–2630.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu, Y., and Chen, G., 2017. Intensified influence of the ENSO Modoki on boreal summer tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific since the early 1990s. International Journal of Climatology, 38: e1258–e1265, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5347.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Matsuura, T., Yumoto, M., and Iizuka, S., 2003. A mechanism of interdecadal variability of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Climate Dynamics, 21: 105–117.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Patricola, C. M., Camargo, S. J., Klotzbach, P. J., Saravanan, R., and Chang, P., 2017. The influence of ENSO flavors on western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity. Journal of Climate, 31 (14): 5395–5416, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0678.1.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ramage, C. S., and Hori, A. M., 1981. Meteorological aspects of El Niño. Monthly Weather Revivew, 109: 1827–1835.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith, T. M., Reynolds, R. W., Peterson, T. C., and Lawrimore, J., 2008. Improvements to NOAA’s historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880–2006). Journal of Climate, 21: 2283–2296.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang, B., and Chan, J. C. L., 2002. How strong ENSO events affect tropical storm activity over the western North Pacific. Journal of Climate, 15: 1643–1658.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang, C., Li, C., Mu, M., and Duan, W., 2013. Seasonal modulations of different impacts of two types of ENSO events on tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific. Climate Dynamics, 40 (11–12): 2887–2902.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang, L., and Pan, X., 2012. Diagnosis of seasonal variations of tropical cyclogenesis over the South China Sea using a genesis potential index. Journal of Ocean University of China, 11 (3): 267–278.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu, G., and Lau, N.-C., 1992. A GCM simulation of the relationship between tropical-storm formation and ENSO. Monthly Weather Revivew, 120: 958–977.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yeh, S., Kang, S. K., Kirtman, B., Kim, J., Kwon, M. H., and Kim, C. H., 2010. Decadal change in relationship between western North Pacific tropical cyclone frequency and the tropical Pacific SST. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 106: 179–189.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yu, J., Chen, C., Li, T., Zhao, X., Xue, H., and Sun, Q., 2016a. Contribution of major SSTA modes to the climate variability of tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142 (695): 1171–1181.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yu, J., Li, T., Tan, Z.-M., and Zhu, Z., 2016b. Effects of tropical North Atlantic SST on tropical cyclone genesis in the western North Pacific. Climate Dynamics, 46: 865, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2618-x.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 41621064 and 41606003). The best track data are downloaded from Joint Typhoon Warning Center (https://metoc.ndbc.noaa.gov/JTWC/), the reanalysis data set are taken from the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Predication/National Center for Atmospheric Research (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/). We thank Dr. Kerry Emanuel for providing the code of calculating TC maximum potential intensity.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Second Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Hangzhou, 310012, China

    Zenghong Liu, Chaohui Sun, Minjie Cao, Xiaofen Wu & Shaolei Lu

  2. National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing, 100081, China

    Xingrong Chen

Authors
  1. Zenghong Liu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Xingrong Chen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Chaohui Sun
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Minjie Cao
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Xiaofen Wu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Shaolei Lu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Zenghong Liu.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Liu, Z., Chen, X., Sun, C. et al. Influence of ENSO Events on Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific. J. Ocean Univ. China 18, 784–794 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11802-019-3923-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11802-019-3923-5

Key words

Search

Navigation