Abstract
Climate change affected the agricultural expansion and the formation of farming-grazing transitional patterns during historical periods. This study analyzed the possible range of the boundary shift of the potential suitable agriculture area in the farming-grazing transitional zone in the northeastern China during the 20th century. Based on modern weather data, 1 km-resolution land cover data, historical climatic time series, and estimation by using similar historical climatic scenes, the following was concluded: 1) The climate conditions of suitable agriculture areas in the farming-grazing transitional zone in the northeastern China between 1971 and 2000 required an average annual temperature above 1°C or ≥ 0°C accumulated temperature above 2500°C–2700°C, and annual precipitation above 350 mm. 2) The northern boundary of the potential suitable agriculture area during the relatively warmer period of 1890–1910 was approximately located at the position of the 1961–2000 area. The northern boundary shifted back to the south by 75 km on average during the colder period of the earlier 20th century, whereas during the modern warm period of the 1990s, the area shifted north by 100 km on average. 3) The western and eastern boundaries of the suitable agriculture area during the heaviest drought periods between 1920s and 1930s had shifted northeast by 250 km and 125 km, respectively, contrasting to the boundaries of 1951–2008. For the wettest period, that is, the 1890s to the 1910s, the shift of western and eastern boundaries was to the southwest by 125 km and 200 km, respectively, compared with that in the 1951–2008 period. This study serves as a reference for identifying a climatically sensitive area and planning future land use and agricultural production in the study area.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bruins H J, 2012. Ancient desert agriculture in the Negev and climate-zone boundary changes during average, wet and drought years. Journal of Arid Environments, 86: 28–42. doi: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2012.01.015
Cappelaere B, Descroix L, Lebel T et al., 2009. The AMMA-CATCH experiment in the cultivated Sahelian area of south-west Niger -Investigating water cycle response to a fluctuating climate and changing environment. Journal of Hydrology, 375(1–2): 34–51. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.021
Chen Yunhao, Su Wei, Wu Yongfeng et al., 2006. Development of land use pattern in farming-grazing transitional zone in North China and modeling. Science in China (E): Technological Science, 36(appendix): 124–132. (in Chinese)
Fang Xiuqi, 1997. Decline of pre-historical agriculture and formation of farming-grazing transitional zone in North China: A view from climatic changes. Journal of Natural Resources, 14(3): 212–218. (in Chinese)
Fang Xiuqi, Jiang Haizhou, Lian Pengling, 2002. Range and rate of abrupt change of precipitation around 3500 a B P in the North China farming-grzing transitional zone. Earth Science Frontiers, (1): 163–167. (in Chinese)
Jawad A, Ayman S, Fayez A et al., 2011. Potential impact of climate change in rainfed agriculture of the semi-arid basin in Jordan. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, 36(5–6): 125–134. doi: 10.1016/j.pce.2010.06.001
Li Minmin, Yan Junping, 2013. The characteristics and response of climate change in farming-pastoral ecotone of North China. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 25(5): 100–106. (in Chinese)
Li Qiuyue, Pan Xuebiao, 2012. The impact of climate change on boundary shift of farming pasture ecotone in northern China. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 26(10): 1–6. (in Chinese)
Liang Eryuan, Shao Xuemei, Liu Hongyan et al., 2007. Tree-ring based PDSI reconstruction since AD 1842 in the Ortindag Sand Land, East Inner Mongolia. Chinese Science Bulletin, 52(14): 1694–1699. (in Chinese)
Lioubimtseva E, Cole R, Adams J M et al., 2005. Impact of climate and land-cover changes in arid lands of Centural Asia. Journal of Arid Environments, 62(2): 285–308. doi: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2004.11.005
Liu Junhui, Gao Jixi, 2008. Spatial changes of boundary based on land use and climate change in the farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China. Chinese Environmental Science, 28(3): 203–209. (in Chinese)
Liu Junhui, Gao Jixi, Lyu Shihai et al., 2011. Shifting farming-pastoral ecotone in China under climate and land use changes. Journal of Arid Environments, 75(3): 298–308. doi: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2010.10.010
Liu Junhui, Gaojixi, Geng bin et al., 2007. Study on the dynamic change of land use and landscape pattern in the farming-pastoral region of Northern China. Research of Environmental Sciences, 20(5): 148–154. (in Chinese)
Liu Yu, Cai qiufang, Park W K et al., 2003. Tree-ring precipitation records in Baiyin’aobao, Xilin Hot City, Inner Mongolia since 1838. Chinese Science Bulletin, 48(9): 952–957. (in Chinese)
Liu Y, Tian H, Song H M et al., 2010. Tree ring precipitation reconstruction in the Chifeng-Weichang region, China, and East Asian summer monsoon variation since AD 1777. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115: D06103. doi: 10.1029/2009JD012330
Man Zhimin, Ge Quansheng, Zhang Piyuan, 2000. Case studies on the impact of climatic changes on the farming-pastoral transitional zone in historical period. Geographical Research, 19(2): 141–147. (in Chinese)
Mutlu O, 2011. Modeling the impacts of climate change on wheat yields in northwestern Turkey. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 141(1–2): 1–12. doi: 10.1016/j.agee.2011.02.001
Philip K T, Peter G J, 2010. Adapting to climate change: Agricultural system and household impacts in East Africa. Agricultural Systems, 103(2): 73–82. doi: 10.1016/j.agsy.2009.09.003
Shao Xuemei, Wu Xiangding, 1997. Reconstruction of climate change on Changbai Mountains, Northeast China using tree-ring data. Quaternary Sciences, (1): 76–85. (in Chinese)
Wang Fang, Pan Xuebiao, 2010. Impact of climate change on population carrying capacity of the Agro Pastoral Zone in Northern China. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 31(appendix 1): 90–93. (in Chinese)
Wang Jing’ai, Xu Xia, Liu Peifang, 1999. Land use and land carrying capacity in ecotone between agriculture and animal husbandry in northern China. Resources Science, 21(5): 19–25. (in Chinese)
Wang Shaowu, Ye Jinlin, Gong Daoyi, 1998. Climate in China during the little ice age. Quaternary Sciences, (1): 54–64. (in Chinese)
Wang Shouchun, 2000. Fastly development and causes of desertification in West Liaohe River Basin of Inner Mongolia during the later 10 century. Journal of Desert Research, 20(3): 238–242. (in Chinese)
Wang X M, Chen F H, Dong Z B, 2006. The relative role of climatic and human factors in desertification in semiarid China. Global Environmental Change, 16(1): 48–57.
Wei Benyong, Li Ya’nan, Yan Xiaodan et al., 2008. Estimation of February-May precipitations from tree-ring in Xiaowutai Mountain region from 1895 onwards. Journal of Beijing Normal University (Natural Science), 44(1): 96–102. (in Chinese)
Yin Yi, Liu Hongyan, He Siyuan et al., 2011. Patterns of local and regional grain size distribution and their application to Holocene climate reconstruction in semi-arid Inner Mongolia, China. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 307(1–4): 168–176. doi: 10.1016/j.palaeo.2011.05.011
Yu Zhiyong, 2011. Climate change and desertification of central and western regions of Inner Mongolia in history and culture period. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences, 39(12): 7536–7538. (in Chinese)
Zhang Lansheng, Fang Xiuqiu, Ren Guoyu, 1997. Environmental changes in the North China farming-grazing transitional zone. Earth Science Frontiers, 4(1–2): 127–136. (in Chinese)
Zhao Halin, Zhao Xueyong, Zhang Tonghui et al., 2002. Boundary line on agro-pasture zigzag zone in North China and its problems on eco-environment. Advance in Earth Sciences, 17(5): 739–747. (in Chinese)
Zhao Songqiao, 1953. Economic geographical survey in one of farming-grazing transitional zones-North Cha, Cha League and Xi League. Acta Geographica Sinica, 19(1): 43–60. (in Chinese)
Zhao Yuanyuan, He Chunyang, Li Xiaobing et al., 2009. Impact of land use and climate change on cultivated land potential productivity in farming-pastoral zone of North China. Journal of Natural Resources, 24(1): 123–125. (in Chinese)
Zhu H F, Fang X Q, Shao X M et al., 2009. Tree ring-based February-April temperature reconstruction for Changbai Mountains in Northeast China and its implication for East Asian winter monsoon. Climate Past, (5): 661–666.
Zou Yilin, 1995. Movement of northern farming-grazing transitional zone during the Ming and Qing dynasties and climate change. Journal of Fudan University (Social Science), (1): 25–33. (in Chinese)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Foundation item: Under the auspices of China Global Change Research Program (No. 2010CB950103), National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40901099)
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Ye, Y., Fang, X. Boundary shift of potential suitable agricultural area in farming-grazing transitional zone in Northeastern China under background of climate change during 20th century. Chin. Geogr. Sci. 23, 655–665 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-013-0638-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-013-0638-1