Abstract
Climate change influences both ecosystems and ecosystem services. The impacts of climate change on ecosystems and ecosystem services have been separately documented. However, it is less well known how ecosystem changes driven by climate change will influence ecosystem services, especially in climate-sensitive regions. Here, we analyzed future climate trends between 2040 and 2100 under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). We quantified their impacts on ecosystems patterns and on the ecosystem service of sandstorm prevention on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), one of the most climate-sensitive regions in the world, using Random Forest model (RF) and Revised Wind Erosion Equation (RWEQ). Strong warming (0.04°C/yr) and wetting (0.65 mm/yr) trends were projected from 2015 to 2100. Under these trends, there will be increased interspersion in the pattern of grassland and sparse vegetation with meadow and swamp vegetation, although their overall area will remain similar, while the areas of shrub and needle-leaved forest classes will increase and move toward higher altitudes. Driven by the changes in ecosystem patterns caused by climate change indirectly, grassland will play an irreplaceable role in providing sandstorm prevention services, and sandstorm prevention services will increase gradually from 2040 to 2100 (1.059–1.070 billion tons) on the QTP. However, some areas show a risk of deterioration in the future and these should be the focus of ecological rehabilitation. Our research helps to understand the cascading relationship among climate change, ecosystem patterns and ecosystem services, which provides important spatio-temporal information for future ecosystem service management.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alma M, Rogelio C, Florian K, et al. (2018) Identifying effects of land use cover changes and climate change on terrestrial ecosystems and carbon stocks in Mexico. Glob. Environ. Change-Human Policy Dimens 53: 12–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.08.004
Cao Y, Li GY, Tian YH, et al. (2020) Linking ecosystem services trade-offs, bundles and hotspot identification with cropland management in the coastal Hangzhou Bay area of China. Land Use Pol 97: 104689. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104689
Che T, Xin L, Jin R, et al. (2008) Snow depth derived from passive microwave remote-sensing data in China. Ann Glaciol 49(1): 145–154. https://doi.org/10.3189/172756408787814690
Che YJ, Zhao J, Zhang MJ, et al. (2016) Potential vegetation and its sensitivity under different climate change scenarios from 2070 to 2099 in China. Acta Ecol Sin 36(10): 2885–2895. (In Chinese)
Cao JY, Wang YL, et al. (2020) Progress in research on soil erosion in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Acta Ecol Sin 57(3): 547–564. (In Chinese). https://doi.org/10.11766/trxb201907020127
Chen YT, Liu AB, Cheng X (2019) Quantifying economic impacts of climate change under nine future emission scenarios within CMIP6. Sci Total Environ 703: 134950. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134950
Chuenchum P, Xu M, Tang W (2020) Predicted trends of soil erosion and sediment yield from future land use and climate change scenarios in the Lancang Mekong River by using the modified RUSLE model. Int Soil Water Conserv Res 8(3): 213–227. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iswcr.2020.06.006
Cuo L, Zhang Y, Zhu F, et al. (2014) Characteristics and changes of streamflow on the Tibetan Plateau: a review. J Hydrol Reg Stud 2: 49–68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2014.08.004
Dai L, Che T, Ding YJ (2015) Inter-calibrating SMMR, SSM/I and SSMI/S data to improve the consistency of snow-depth products in China. Remote Sens 7(6): 7212–7230. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs70607212
Dai L, Che Y, Ding Y, et al. (2017) Evaluation of snow cover and snow depth on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau derived from passive microwave remote sensing. Cryosphere 11(4): 1933–1948. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1933-2017
Du HQ, Wang T, Xue X (2017) Potential wind erosion rate response to climate and land use changes in the watershed of the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia Reach of the Yellow River, China, from 1986 to 2013: wind erosion response to climate and land use changes. Earth Surf Process Landf 42(13): 1923–1937. https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.4146
Feng JL, Li N, Zhang ZT, et al. (2017) The dual effect of vegetation green-up date and strong wind on the return period of spring dust storms. Sci Total Environ 592: 729–737. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.02.028
Feng XY, Huang BB, Li RN, et al. (2020) Response characteristics of ecosystems and soil conservation services to future climate change in the Three-Rivers region, China. Acta Ecol Sin 40(18): 6351–6361. (In Chinese) https://doi.org/10.5846/stxb201903300617
Folke C, Jansson S, Rockstrm J, et al. (2011) Reconnecting to the biosphere. Ambio 40(7): 719–738. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-011-0184-y
Fryrear DF, Bilbro JD, Saleh A, et al. (2000) RWEQ: improved wind erosion technology. J Soil Water Conserv 55(2): 183–189. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-7061(99)00084-1
Fu Q, Li B, Hou Y, et al. (2017) Effects of land use and climate change on ecosystem services in central Asia’s arid regions: a case study in altay prefecture, China. Sci Total Environ 607: 633–646. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.06.241
Gao M (2019) Simulations of potential vegetation distribution based on holdridge life zone model in north-sorth transition zone of China. Master Thesis, Lanzhou University. (In Chinese)
Gao Q, Guo Y, Xu H, et al. (2016) Climate change and its impacts on vegetation distribution and net primary productivity of the alpine ecosystem in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Sci Total Environ 554: 34–41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.02.131
Guo B, Zhou Y, Wang SX, et al. (2014) The relationship between normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and climate factors in the semiarid region: A case study in Yalu Tsangpo River basin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. J Mt Sci 11(4): 926–940. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-013-2902-3
Guo YN, Zheng H, Wu T, et al. (2020) A review of spatial targeting methods of payment for ecosystem services. Geography and Sustainability 1(2): 132–140. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geosus.2020.04.001
Guo YQ (2012) Simulation study of climate change impacts on vegetation succession and productivity in Tibetan Plateau, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences. (In Chinese)
Hu Q, Jiang D, Fan G (2015) Climate change projection on the Tibetan Plateau: results of CMIP5 models. Chin. J Atmos Sci 39(2): 260–270. (In Chinese) https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1406.13325
Jiang C, Li D, Wang D, et al. (2016) Quantification and assessment of changes in ecosystem service in the Three-River Headwaters Region, China as a result of climate variability and land cover change. Ecol Indic 66: 199–211. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.01.051
Jiang C, Nath R, Labzovskii L, et al. (2018) Integrating ecosystem services into effectiveness assessment of ecological restoration program in northern China’s arid areas: Insights from the Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Region. Land Use Pol 75: 201–214. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.03.018
Jiang L (2015) Temporal and spatial patterns of sand retention service in China. PhD Thesis, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences. (In Chinese)
Jiang L, Xiao Y, Rao E, et al. (2016) Effects of land use and cover change(LUCC) on ecosystem sand fixing service in Inner Mongolia. Acta Ecol Sin 36(12): 3734–3747. (In Chinese) https://doi.org/10.5846/stxb201504130745
Lamsal P, Kumar L, Shabani F, et al. (2017) The greening of the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau under climate change. Glob Planet Change 159: 77–92. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.09.010
Leng R, Yuan Q, Wang Y, et al. (2020) Carbon balance of grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under future climate change: a review. Sustainability 12(2): 533. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12020533
Li DJ, Xu DY (2019) Sand fixation function response to climate change and land use in northern China from 1981 to 2015. Aeolian Res 40: 23–33. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aeolia.2019.05.002
Li D, Xu E, Zhang H (2020) Influence of ecological land change on wind erosion prevention service in arid area of northwest China from 1990 to 2015. Ecol. Indic 117: 106686. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106686
Li J Y, Chen HX, Zhang C (2020) Impacts of climate change on key soil ecosystem services and interactions in central Asia. Ecol Indic 116: 106490. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106490
Li J, Ma X, Zhang C (2019) Predicting the spatiotemporal variation in soil wind erosion across Central Asia in response to climate change in the 21st century. Sci Total Environ 709: 136060. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136060
Li N, Du Z, Xu Y, et al. (2007) A contribution of soil moisture and wind speed to occurrence of dust storms. J Nat Disasters 16(4): 1–5. (In Chinese) https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1004-4574.2007.04.001
Li N, Gu W, Du ZX, et al. (2006) Observation on soil water content and wind speed in Erlianhot, a dust-source area in northern China. Atmos Environ 40(27): 5298–5303. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2006.04.019
Li XW, Li MD, Dong SK, et al. (2015) Temporal-spatial changes in ecosystem services and implications for the conservation of alpine rangelands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Rangeland J 37(1): 31–43. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ14084
Liu XD, Cheng ZG, Zhang R (2009) The A1B scenario projection for climate change over the Tibetan Plateau in the next 30–50 years. Plateau Meteor 28(3): 475–484. (In Chinese) https://doi.org/1000-0534(2009)03-0475-10
O’Neill BC, Tebaldi C, van Vuuren DP, et al. (2016) The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. Geosci Model Dev 9(9): 3461–3482. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016
Pan Z, He J, Liu D, et al. (2020) Predicting the joint effects of future climate and land use change on ecosystem health in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China. Appl Geogr 124: 102293. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2020.102293
Pearson RG, Phillips SJ, Loranty MM, et al. (2013) Shifts in Arctic vegetation and associated feedbacks under climate change. Nat Clim Chang 3(7): 673–677. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1858
Pham HV, Sperotto A, Torresan S, et al. (2019) Coupling scenarios of climate and land-use change with assessments of potential ecosystem services at the river basin scale. Ecosyst Serv 40: 101045. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2019.101045
Piao S, Cui M, Chen A, et al. (2011) Altitude and temperature dependence of change in the spring vegetation green-up date from 1982 to 2006 in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. Agric For Meteorol 151(12): 1599–1608. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.06.016
Qiang MR, Chen FH, Zhou AF, et al. (2006) Impacts of wind velocity on sand and dust deposition during dust storm as inferred from a series of observations in the northeastern Qinghai Tibetan Plateau, China. Powder Technol 175(2): 82–89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.powtec.2006.12.020
Rupa Kumar K, Sahai AK, Krishna Kumar K, et al. (2006) Highresolution climate change scenarios for India for the 21st century. Curr Sci 9(3): 334–345. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GB002443
Sauter L, Kienast F, Bolliger J, et al. (2019) Changes in demand and supply of ecosystem services under scenarios of future land use in Vorarlberg, Austria. J Mt Sci 16(12): 2793–2837. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-018-5124-x
Shen Y, Zhang C, Huang X, et al. (2019) The effect of wind speed averaging time on sand transport estimates. Catena 175: 286–293. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2018.12.020
Song Y, Yang TT, Li ZT, et al. (2020) Research on the direct and indirect effects of environmental regulation on environmental pollution: empirical evidence from 253 prefecture-level cities in China. J Clean Prod 269: 122425. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.122425
Tang F, Fu MC, Wang L, et al. (2020) Land-use change in Changli County, China: Predicting its spatio-temporal evolution in habitat quality. Ecol Indic 117: 106719. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106719
Teng H, Liang Z, Chen S, et al. (2018) Current and future assessments of soil erosion by water on the Tibetan Plateau based on RUSLE and CMIP5 climate models. Sci Total Environ 635: 673–686. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.146
Underwood EC, Hollander AD, Safford HD, et al. (2019) The impacts of climate change on ecosystem services in southern California. Ecosyst Serv 39: 101008. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2019.101008
Wang SR, Guo LL, He B, et al. (2020) The stability of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau ecosystem to climate change. Phys Chem Earth 115: 102827.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2019.102827
Wang Y (2018) Projected future changes in vegetation over the Tibetan Plateau in the twenty-first century. Master Thesis, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology. (In Chinese)
Weiskopf S, Rubenstein M, Crozier L, et al. (2019) Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States. Sci Total Environ 733: 137782. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137782
Wu Z, Dai E, Wu Z, et al. (2019) Future forest dynamics under climate change, land use change, and harvest in subtropical forests in Southern China. Landsc. Ecol 34(4): 843–863. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-019-00809-8
Xu J, Xie G, Wang Y, et al. (2019) Assessment of wind erosion prevention service and its beneficiary areas identification of national key ecological function zone of windbreak and sand fixation type in China. Acta Ecol Sin 39(16): 5857–5873. (In Chinese) https://doi.org/10.5846/stxb201901040042
Xu Y, Zhao ZC, Li DL, et al. (2005) The simulated result analyses on climate changes over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and along the railway. Plateau Meteor 24(5): 700–707. (In Chinese) https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:1000-0534.2005.05.007
Zhang G, Azorin-Molina C, Shi P, et al. (2019) Impact of near-surface wind speed variability on wind erosion in the eastern agro-pastoral transitional zone of Northern China, 1982–2016. Agric For Meteorol 271: 102–115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.02.039
Zheng H, Wang LJ, Wu T (2019) Coordinating ecosystem service trade-offs to achieve win-win outcomes: A review of the approaches. J Environ Sci 82: 103–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jes.2019.02.030
Zheng R, Li LD (2016) Decadal changes of the wet and dry climate zone boundaries in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during 1971–2011. J Desert Res 36(4): 1106–1115. (In Chinese) https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2015.00202
Zhu YY, Yang SN (2020) Evaluation of CMIP6 for historical temperature and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau and its comparison with CMIP5. Adv Clim Chang Res 11(3): 239–251. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2020.08.001
Acknowledgements
This study was supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) (Grant No.2019QZKK0307). Special thanks go to Dr. Yuqing Guan of Lanzhou University for providing us with information and data on strong sandstorms in China. The authors also sincerely thank all the editors and anonymous reviewers for their beneficial suggestions to improve the quality of this article.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Meng, N., Yang, Yz., Zheng, H. et al. Climate change indirectly enhances sandstorm prevention services by altering ecosystem patterns on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. J. Mt. Sci. 18, 1711–1724 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-020-6526-0
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-020-6526-0