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Estimating Community Disruption from Nighttime Gunshots in 6 U.S. Cities, 2015 to 2021

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Abstract

Background

Gunshots affect those directly involved in an incident and those in the surrounding community. The community-level impact of nighttime gunshots, which may be particularly disruptive to the sleep of nearby community members, is unknown.

Objective

Our aim is to estimate the number of people potentially affected by nighttime gunshots and the relationship between nighttime gunshots and median household income in the USA.

Design

We collected publicly available data on the timing and location of gunshots in six U.S. cities (Baltimore, MD; Boston, MA; Washington, D.C.; New York, NY; Philadelphia, PA; and Portland, OR) from 2015 to 2021. We then analyzed the data by computing rate ratios (RRs) to compare the frequency of gunshots during nighttime hours (6:00 pm to 5:59 am) versus daytime hours (6:00 am to 5:59 pm). Additionally, we used geospatial mapping to create choropleth maps to visualize the variation in nighttime gunshot density across cities. We estimated, using city-wide population, person-nights potentially impacted by the sound of gunshots within areas of 0.2- (low) and 0.5-mile (high) radius. Finally, for five of six cities where data on median household income were available by census tract, we built nonlinear regression models to estimate the relationship between the number of nighttime gunshots and median household income.

Key Results

We analyzed 72,236 gunshots. Gunshots were more common during the nighttime than daytime (overall RR = 2.5). Analyses demonstrated that the low estimates for the mean annual number of person-nights impacted by nighttime gunshots were 0.4 million in Baltimore and Portland, 1.3 million in Philadelphia, 1.6 million in Boston, 2.9 million in New York City, and 5.9 million in Washington. The number of nighttime gunshots was inversely related to median household income.

Conclusions

Nighttime gunshots are prevalent, particularly in low-income neighborhoods, and may have under-recognized effects on the surrounding community.

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Data Availability:

All data analyzed in the present study were obtained from publicly available sources, listed in Supplement D.

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Funding

This study was supported by the MGH Center for Gun Violence Prevention. Robbins has received grant support from the NIH/NHLBI (K01HL150339). Klerman has received grant support from the NIH (R01NS099055, U01NS114001, U54AG062322, R21DA052861, R21DA052861, R01NS114526-02S1, R01-HD107064), DoD (W81XWH201076), and Leducq Foundation for Cardiovascular Research.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Division of Sleep and Circadian Disorders, Departments of Medicine and Neurology, Brigham & Women’s Hospital; Division of Sleep Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA

    Rebecca Robbins PhD & Elizabeth B. Klerman MD, PhD

  2. Center for Gun Violence Prevention, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA

    Rebecca Robbins PhD, Peter T. Masiakos MD, MS, Cornelia Griggs MD & Chana A. Sacks MD, MPH

  3. Department of Mathematics, Kean University, Union, NJ, USA

    Mahmoud Affouf PhD

  4. Department of Surgery, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA

    Peter T. Masiakos MD, MS & Cornelia Griggs MD

  5. Departments of Molecular and Cellular Biology and Statistics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA

    Jay M. Iyer A.B.cand

  6. Department of Neurology, Division of Sleep Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA

    Elizabeth B. Klerman MD, PhD

  7. Division of General Internal Medicine and Mongan Institute, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School Boston, Boston, MA, USA

    Chana A. Sacks MD, MPH

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  1. Rebecca Robbins PhD
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  6. Elizabeth B. Klerman MD, PhD
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Contributions

All authors had full access to the publicly available data used in the present analysis and take full responsibility for the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the data analysis.

Concept and Design

Robbins, Affouf, Masiakos, Griggs, Klerman, and Sacks.

Acquisition, Analysis, or Interpretation of the Data

Robbins, Affouf, Masiakos, Griggs, Klerman, and Sacks.

Drafting of the Manuscript

Robbins, Affouf, Masiakos, Iyer, Griggs, Klerman, and Sacks.

Critical Revision of the Manuscript for Important Intellectual Content

Robbins, Affouf, Masiakos, Iyer, Griggs, Klerman, and Sacks.

Statistical Analyses

Affouf.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Rebecca Robbins PhD.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of Interest:

Robbins reports receiving consulting income from byNacht GmbH, Savoir Beds Ltd., Oura Health Oy, Castle Hot Springs, Sonesta International Hotels Corporation. Robbins has received funding from Bryte Labs. Klerman reports consulting income from the American Academy of Sleep Medicine Foundation, Circadian Therapeutics, National Sleep Foundation, Sleep Research Society Foundation, and Yale University Press; has received travel support from the European Biological Rhythms Society, EPFL Pavilion, the Santa Fe Institute, Sleep Research Society, and the World Sleep Society; and is an unpaid member of the scientific advisory board of Chronsulting. Klerman’s partner is founder, chief scientific officer of Chronsulting.

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Elizabeth B. Klerman and Chana A. Sacks are co-last authors.

Prior Presentations

This study was presented as an abstract to the American Public Health Association (2022) and the Society for General Internal Medicine (2023) annual meetings.

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Robbins, R., Affouf, M., Masiakos, P.T. et al. Estimating Community Disruption from Nighttime Gunshots in 6 U.S. Cities, 2015 to 2021. J GEN INTERN MED (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11606-024-08707-9

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