Abstract
We develop a predictive oviposition model for a southern population of mountain pine beetle (MPB) using a previously developed rate curve, incorporating variation in both oviposition rate and fecundity. We also introduce a method for determining the time delay before oviposition. The model describes the probability of oviposition for a season of MPB attacks using hourly phloem temperature and adult MPB attack data. We also develop an asymptotic approximation of MPB oviposition that is much less computationally taxing. The detailed oviposition model and its asymptotic approximation are compared with other ovipositional models for MPB; the predictive capacity of each model is evaluated using previously published observations.
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Acknowledgements
We thank Monica Gaylord, Rich Hofstetter, John Anhold, Jim Vandygriff, Matt Hansen, and Anne McManis for data collection. This research was supported by funding from the USDA Forest Service, Forest Health Protection Special Technology Development Program R3-2015-04.
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Wangen, C.E., Powell, J.A. & Bentz, B.J. Oviposition Model for a Southern Population of Mountain Pine Beetle. Bull Math Biol 84, 133 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-022-01089-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-022-01089-1