Abstract
The source region of the Yellow River has experienced obvious climate and discharge changes in recent decades due to global warming, which largely affects the water resources and ecological and environmental security in the Yellow River basin. This study analyzed the changes in runoff and several climate factors in the source region of the Yellow River based on the observed discharges at the Tangnag hydrological station, routine meteorological data from China Meteorological Administration (CMA) stations within and near this source region, and several evaporation datasets. The results indicate that the runoff in the source region was relatively abundant from 1960 to 1989 and then declined sharply afterward. It recovered slightly after 2005 but was still below normal—10% less than that during 1960–1989. Similarly, the precipitation amounts in the source region were relatively low in the 1990s, but they increased significantly after 2003, with an average increase of 31.4 mm or 6% more when compared to that in 1960–1989. In addition, the temperatures in the source region continued to rise from 1960 to 2017, and the evaporation levels also showed an upward trend after 1990. The influences of the spatial and temporal variations in climatic factors on runoff in the source region were then further analyzed. The results indicate that the decreases in precipitation and the number of days of heavy rainfall in the source region from 1990 to 2002 were important reasons for the lower runoff during this period. After 2003, the precipitation in the southeastern part of the source region, which is a key area for runoff generation, increased only to a limited extent, but the evaporation in the entire source region generally increased with increasing temperature, which might have led to the low capacity for actual runoff production in each subbasin and persistent low runoff in the source region. Therefore, such a climate response to global warming in the source region might be unfavorable for increased runoff in the future. The above analysis provides a valuable reference for the future planning and management of water resources in the source region of the Yellow River and the entire Yellow River Basin in the context of warming.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Chang G G, Li L, Zhu X D, Wang Z Y, Xiao J S, Li F X. 2007. Influencing factors of water resources in the source region of the Yellow River (in Chinese). Acta Geogr Sin, 62: 312–320
Chen L Q, Liu C M, Hao F H, Dai D, Liu J Y. 2006. Impact of climate on runoff in the source regions of the Yellow River (in Chinese). Earth Sci Front, 13: 321–329
Chen Y X, Wen J, Liu R, Lu X C, Chen Y L. 2021. Study on the spatial-temporal distribution pattern of land surface evapotranspiration over the source region of the Yellow River (in Chinese). Plateau Mt Meteorol Res, 41: 35–12
Du Q Q, Zhang M J, Wang S J, Che C W, Qiu X, Ma Z Z. 2018. Changes in air temperature of China in response to global warming hiatus (in Chinese). Acta Geogr Sin, 73: 1748–1764
Duan A M, Xiao Z X, Wu G X. 2016. Characteristics of climate change over the Tibetan Plateau under the global warming during 1979–2014 (in Chinese). Clim Change Res, 12: 374–381
Feng Z G, Liang S X, Xu S, Xu S J, Li W J. 2019. Variation Characteristics of Summer Precipitation in Huaihe River Basin in Recent 60 Years (in Chinese). J China Hydrol, 39: 85–89
Grassi B, Redaelli G, Visconti G. 2013. Arctic sea ice reduction and extreme climate events over the Mediterranean Region. J Clim, 26: 10101–10110
Hersbach H, Bell B, Berrisford P, Biavati G, Horányi A, Muñoz Sabater J, Nicolas J, Peubey C, Radu R, Rozum I, Schepers D, Simmons A, Soci C, Dee D, Thépaut J N. 2023. ERA5 monthly averaged data on single levels from 1940 to present. Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS)
Hou B, Jiang C, Sun O J. 2020. Differential changes in precipitation and runoff discharge during 1958–2017 in the headwater region of Yellow River of China. J Geogr Sci, 30: 1401–1418
Hu Y, Maskey S, Uhlenbrook S, Zhao H. 2011. Streamflow trends and climate linkages in the source region of the Yellow River, China. Hydrol Process, 25: 3399–3411
Immerzeel W W, van Beek L P H, Bierkens M F P. 2010. Climate change will affect the asian water towers. Science, 328: 1382–1385
Jia Y W, Gao H, Niu C W, Qiu Y Q. 2008. Impact of climate change on runoff process in headwater area of the Yellow River (in Chinese). J Hydraul Eng, 39: 52–58
Lan Y C, Liu G S, La C F, Zhu Y T, Ma Q J, Shi M X. 2017. Study on the characteristics and trend of runoff change in the source region of the Yellow River and its regional difference (in Chinese). Mt Res, 35: 257–265
Lan Y C, Wen J, Zhao G H, Shen Y P, Hu X L, Chang J J, Ma J H. 2010a. Sensibility analysis of the runoff in the headwater regions of the Yellow River to climate change (in Chinese). J Glaciol Geocryol, 32: 175–182
Lan Y, Zhao G, Zhang Y, Wen J, Hu X, Liu J, Gu M, Chang J, Ma J. 2010b. Response of runoff in the headwater region of the Yellow River to climate change and its sensitivity analysis. J Geogr Sci, 20: 848–860
Lan Y C, Zhu Y T, Liu G S, La C F, Shen Y P, Shi M X. 2016. Study of the seasonal characteristics and regional differences of climate change in source regions of the Yellow River (in Chinese). J Glaciol Geocryol, 38: 741–749
Li D F, Tian Y, Liu C M, Hao F H. 2004, Impact of land-cover and climate changes on runoff of the source regions of the Yellow River. J Geogr Sci, 14: 330–338
Li L, Shen H Y, Dai S, Xiao J S, Shi X H. 2011. Response to climate change and prediction of runoff in the source region of Yellow River (in Chinese). Acta Geogr Sin, 66: 1261–1269
Li L, Shen H Y, Dai S, Xiao J S, Shi X H. 2012, Response of runoff to climate change and its future tendency in the source region of Yellow River. J Geogr Sci, 22: 431–440
Li Y F, Wang W K, Wang G Q, Liu C S, Zheng H C, Ma Z T. 2021. The applicability of various potential evapotranspiration estimation methods in the headwater area of the Yellow River (in Chinese). Hydrogeol Eng Geol, 48: 10–19
Li Z, Lyu S, Chen H, Ao Y, Zhao L, Wang S, Zhang S, Meng X. 2021. Changes in climate and snow cover and their synergistic influence on spring runoff in the source region of the Yellow River. Sci Total Environ, 799: 149503
Liang P F, Li Z J, Xin H J, Li Z X, Duan R, Nan F S, Li Y C. 2022. Characteristics of runoff changes and influencing factors in the source region of the Yellow River (in Chinese). J Water Resour Water Eng, 33: 64–71
Lin S, Wang G, Hu Z, Huang K, Sun X, Sun J, Luo M, Xiao X. 2021. Dynamics of Evapotranspiration and Variations in Different LandCover Regions over the Tibetan Plateau during 1961–2014. J Hydrometeorol, 22: 955–969
Liu C H, Wang P L, Wen T T, Yu D, Bai W R. 2021. Spatio-temporal characteristics of climate change in the Yellow River source area from1960 to 2019 (in Chinese). Arid Zone Res, 38: 293–302
Liu R, Wen J, Wang X. 2016. Spatial-Temporal variation and abrupt analysis of evapotranspiration over the Yellow River source region (in Chinese). Clim Environ Res, 21: 503–511
Liu T T, Zhu X F, Guo R, Xu K, Zhang S Z. 2022. Applicability of ERA5 reanalysis of precipitation data in China (in Chinese). Arid Land Geogr, 45: 66–79
Liu X, Chen B. 2000. Climatic warming in the Tibetan Plateau during recent decades. Int J Clim, 20: 1729–1742
Lu J, Wang G, Chen T, Li S, Hagan D F T, Kattel G, Peng J, Jiang T, Su B. 2021. A harmonized global land evaporation dataset from model-based products covering 1980–2017. Earth Syst Sci Data, 13: 5879–5898
Martens B, Miralles D G, Lievens H, van der Schalie R, de Jeu R A M, Fernández-Prieto D, Beck H E, Dorigo W A, Verhoest N E C. 2017. GLEAM v3: Satellite-based land evaporation and root-zone soil moisture. Geosci Model Dev, 10: 1903–1925
Meng F, Su F, Yang D, Tong K, Hao Z. 2016. Impacts of recent climate change on the hydrology in the source region of the Yellow River basin. J Hydrol-Reg Stud, 6: 66–81
Miralles D G, Holmes T R H, De Jeu R A M, Gash J H, Meesters A G C A, Dolman A J. 2017. Global land-surface evaporation estimated from satellite-based observations. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci, 15: 453–469
Muñoz Sabater J. 2019. ERA5-Land monthly averaged data from 1950 to present. Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS)
Sang Y F, Wang Z, Liu C, Gong T. 2013. Temporal-spatial climate variability in the headwater drainage basins of the Yangtze River and Yellow River, China. J Clim, 26: 5061–5071
Shi M X, Lan Y C, Shen Y P, Tian H, Wang X, La C F, Ma H Y. 2018. Analyses of multiple time scale variation characteristics of pan evaporation and mutation in the source regions of the Yellow River from 1961 to 2014 (in Chinese). J Glaciol Geocryol, 40: 666–675
Song B, Zhi X F, Hu Y X. 2015. A review of recent studies on global warming hiatus (in Chinese). Trans Atmos Sci, 38: 145–154
Sun Y L, Wang L R, Zhang Q, Li T, Wei T X. 2021. Threshold Research of Rainstorm Disaster on the Houses in Hebei Province Based on Dominance Analysis Method (in Chinese). Climatic Environ Res, 26 289–298
Tang Q, Oki T, Kanae S, Hu H. 2008. Hydrological cycles change in the Yellow River Basin during the last half of the twentieth century. J Clim, 21: 1790–1806
Wang D X, Tian S M, Jiang S Q, Dong X N, Li Z W, Zhang L. 2020. Research progress of the evolution of runoff in the source area of the Yellow River (in Chinese). Yellow River, 42: 90–95
Wen L Y, Jin L J, Liu J, Wang P. 2022. Precipitation characteristics and its meteorological causes in the source region of the Yellow River (in Chinese). Yellow River, 44: 21–25
Xu M, Ye B S, Zhao Q D. 2013. Estimation of the Real Evaporation in the Source Regions of the Yellow River Using GRACE Satellite Data (in Chinese). J Glaciol Geocryol, 35 138–147
Xu X, Lu C, Shi X, Gao S. 2008. World water tower: An atmospheric perspective. Geophys Res Lett, 35: 2008GL035867
Xu Y D, Li J P, Wang Q Y, Lin X P. 2019. Review of the research progress in global warming Hiatus (in Chinese). Adv Earth Sci, 34: 175–190
Xu Z X, He W L. 2006. Spatial and temporal characteristics and change trend of climatic elements in the headwater region of the Yellow River in recent 40 years (in Chinese). Plateau Meteorol, 25: 906–913
Xue B L, Wang L, Li X, Yang K, Chen D, Sun L. 2013. Evaluation of evapotranspiration estimates for two river basins on the Tibetan Plateau by a water balance method. J Hydrol, 492: 290–297
Yang K, Ye B, Zhou D, Wu B, Foken T, Qin J, Zhou Z. 2011. Response of hydrological cycle to recent climate changes in the Tibetan Plateau. Climatic Change, 109: 517–534
Yang X Q, Wang G J, Pan X, Zhang Y Q. 2015. Spatio-temporal variability of terrestrial evapotranspiration in China from 1980 to 2011 based on GLEAM data (in Chinese). Trans Chin Soc Agric Eng, 31: 132–141
Yang Y X, Hu Z Y, Lu F Q, Cai Y, Yu H P, Guo R X, Fu C W, Fan W W, Wu D. 2022. Progress of recent 60 years’ climate change and its environmental impacts on the Qinghai-Xizang plateau (in Chinese). Plateau Meteor, 41: 1–10
Yang Z, Liu Q. 2011. Response of streamflow to climate changes in the Yellow River Basin, China. J Hydrometeorol, 12: 1113–1126
Yao T, Thompson L G, Mosbrugger V, Zhang F, Ma Y, Luo T, Xu B, Yang X, Joswiak D R, Wang W, Joswiak M E, Devkota L P, Tayal S, Jilani R, Fayziev R. 2012. Third pole environment (TPE). Environ Dev, 3: 52–64
Yasuhara K, Komine H, Yokoki H, Suzuki T, Mimura N, Tamura M, Chen G. 2011. Effects of climate change on coastal disasters: new methodologies and recent results. Sustain Sci, 6: 219–232
You Q, Zhang Y, Xie X, Wu F. 2019. Robust elevation dependency warming over the Tibetan Plateau under global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C. Clim Dyn, 53: 2047–2060
Zhang J T, You Q L, Wu F Y, Cai Z Y, Pepin N. 2022. The warming of the Tibetan Plateau in response to transient and stabilized 2.0°C 1.5°C global warming targets. Adv Atmos Sci, 39: 1198–1206
Zhang T, Li D, Lu X. 2022. Response of runoff components to climate change in the source-region of the Yellow River on the Tibetan plateau. Hydrol Proc, 36: e14633
Zhang W, Ji R. 2019. Analysis of spatio-temporal variation and factors influencing surface temperature in Liaoning Province (in Chinese). Acta Ecol Sin, 39: 6772–6784
Zhou D G, Huang R H. 2012. Response of water budget to recent climatic changes in the source region of the Yellow River. Chin Sci Bull, 57: 2155–2162
Zhou D G, Huang R H. 2006. Exploration of reason of runoff decrease in the source regions of the Yellow River (in Chinese). Climatic Environ Res, 11: 302–309
Zhou D G, Huang R H. 2012, Response of water budget to recent climatic changes in the source region of the Yellow River. Chin Sci Bull, 57: 2155–2162
Acknowledgements
Evaporation datasets are provided by Climate Data Store (CDS) website at https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/#!/search?text=ERA5, GLEAM official website at https://www.gleam.eu, and National Tibetan Plateau / Third Pole Environment Data Center at http://data.tpdc.ac.cn, respectively. We thank anonymous reviewers for their detailed and constructive comments and suggestions. This work was supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) (Grant No. 2019QZKK0103) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42150205).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Zhang, Y., Zhou, D. & Guo, X. Regional climate response to global warming in the source region of the Yellow River and its impact on runoff. Sci. China Earth Sci. 67, 843–855 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-023-1253-x
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-023-1253-x