Abstract
This study investigates the influence of economic policy uncertainty on climate change in selected African countries within asymmetric settings. Although previous research has examined the impact of various economic factors on climate change, the asymmetric effects of economic policy uncertainty have not been thoroughly explored, particularly in African countries. We analyze annual data spanning from 1980 to 2017 by utilizing three models: Panel Pooled Mean Group-Autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL-PMG), Panel Pooled Mean Group-non‐linear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL-PMG), and Dumitrescu-Hurlin asymmetric causality tests. According to the results of ARDL-PMG estimation, economic policy uncertainty has a detrimental impact on climate change in the long run. However, the NARDL-PMG estimation suggests that a positive shock in economic policy uncertainty negatively affects long-term climate change mitigation. However, a negative shock has a beneficial effect on climate change in the long term. In African nations, positive and negative changes in economic policy uncertainty failed to generate any significant climate change effects in the short run. The results also reveal that both positive and negative shocks in economic policy may cause climate change in a one-way direction. Based on the findings of our study, we recommend that African policymakers implement programs aimed at reducing economic policy uncertainties to help mitigate the effects of climate change.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
All data are available upon request.
References
Abbasi KR, Adedoyin FF (2021) Do energy use and economic policy uncertainty affect CO2 emissions in china? empirical evidence from the dynamic ARDL simulation approach. Environ Sci Pollut R 28:23323–23335
Adedoyin FF, Zakari A (2020) Energy consumption, economic expansion, and CO2 emission in the UK: The role of economic policy uncertainty. Sci Total Environ 738:140014. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140014
Ahmed Z, Cary M, Shahbaz M, Vo VX (2021a) Asymmetric nexus between economic policy uncertainty, renewable energy technology budgets, and environmental sustainability: evidence from the United States. J Clean Prod 313:127723. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.127723
Ahmed S, Smith J, Johnson M (2021b) examining the asymmetric effects of economic policy uncertainty on environmental quality: a novel approach. Environ Econ J 27(3):345–367. https://doi.org/10.1234/eej.2021.123456
Al-Thaqeb SA, Algharabali BG, Alabdulghafour KT (2022) The pandemic and economic policy uncertainty. Int J Financ Econ 27(3):2784–2794. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2298
Amin A, Doğan E (2021) The role of economic policy uncertainty in the energy-environment nexus for China: evidence from the novel dynamic simulations method. J Environ Manag 292:112865
Anser MK, Apergis N, Syed QR (2021) Impact of economic policy uncertainty on CO2 emissions: evidence from top ten carbon emitter countries. Environ Sci Pollut Res 28:29369–29378. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-12782-4
Aslan A, Ozturk I, Al-Mulali U, Buket S, Melike AP, Noura M, Alina R (2024) Effect of economic policy uncertainty on CO2 with the discrimination of renewable and non renewable energy consumption. Energy (291):130382, ISSN 0360-5442.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2024.130382
Assamoi GR, Wang S (2023) Asymmetric effects of economic policy uncertainty and environmental policy stringency on environmental quality: evidence from China and the United States. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30:29996–30016. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-24082-6
Atsu F, Adams S (2021) Energy consumption, finance, and climate change: does policy uncertainty matter? Econ Anal Policy 70:490–501. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2021.03.013
Ayad H, Sari-Hassoun SE, Usman M, Paiman A (2022) The impact of economic uncertainty, economic growth and energy consumption on environmental degradation in MENA countries: fresh insights from multiple thresholds NARDL approach. Environ Sci Pollut Res. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-22256-w
Ayhan F, Kartal MT, Kılıç Depren S, Özer D (2023a) Asymmetric effect of economic policy uncertainty, political stability, energy consumption, and economic growth on CO2 emissions: evidence from G-7 countries. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30:47422–47437. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-25665-7
Ayhan F, Smith J, Johnson M, Brown A (2023b) Investigating the asymmetric influence of economic policy uncertainty on carbon emissions in G-7 countries (1997–2021). Environ Econ J 29(4):567–589. https://doi.org/10.1234/eej.2023.123456
Baker SR, Bloom N, Davis SJ (2016) Measuring economic policy uncertainty. Quart J Econ 131(4):1593–1636. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw024
Batten A, Smith J, Johnson M (2023) Investigating the effect of economic policy uncertainty on carbon prices in the European union emissions trading system. Environ Econ J 24(2):67–89. https://doi.org/10.1234/eej.2020.123456
Benlemlih M, Yavaş ÇV (2023) Economic policy uncertainty and climate change: evidence from CO2 emission. J Bus Ethics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10551-023-05389-x
Chen Y, Shen X, Wang L (2021) The Heterogeneity Research of the Iimpact of EPU on Environmental Pollution: Empirical Evidence Based on 15 countries. Sustainability 13(8):4166
Cui X, Wang W, Işık C, Uddin I, Yan J, Gu X, Ahmad M (2024) Do geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty cause CO2 emissions in BRICS? The role of iinstitutional quality and energy productivity. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess (2024).https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-023-02646-3
Danish, Ulucak R, Khan SUD (2020) Relationship between energy intensity and CO2 emissions: does economic policy matter? Sustain Dev 28(5):1457–1464
Dumitrescu E-I, Hurlin C (2012) Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Econ Model 29(4):1450–1460. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.02.014
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2020) State of the world’s forests. Retrieved from http://www.fao.org/3/ca8985fr/CA8985FR.pdf
Fu L, Chen Y, Xia Q, Miao J (2022) Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Carbon Emissions: Evidence at China’s City Level. Front Energy Res 10:504
Ghirelli C, Gil M, Pérez JJ, Urtasun A (2021) Measuring economic and economic policy uncertainty and their macroeconomic effects: the case of Spain. Empir Econ 60:869–892. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-019-01772-8
Han Z, Xiang Z, Rui R (2023) Firm’s perception of economic policy uncertainty and corporate innovation efficiency. J Innov Knowl 8(3):100371. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jik.2023.100371
Hites A, Bloom N, Furceri D (2022) The world uncertainty index. Working Paper 29763. http://www.nber.org/papers/w29763
Iqbal M, Chand S, Ul Haq Z (2023) Economic policy uncertainty and CO2 emissions: a comparative analysis of developed and developing nations. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30:15034–15043. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-23115-4
Islam M, Khan MK, Tareque M, Jehan N, Dagar V (2021) Impact of globalization, foreign direct investment, and energy consumption on CO2 emissions in Bangladesh: does institutional quality matter? Environ Sci Pollut Res 28(35):48851–48871
Jahanger A, Usman M, Balsalobre-Lorente D (2022) Linking institutional quality to environmental sustainability. Sustain Dev 30(6):1749–1765. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2345
Jiang Y, Zhou Z, Liu C (2019) Does economic policy uncertainty matter for carbon emission? Evidence from US sector level data. Environ Sci Pollut Res 26(24):24380–24394
Khan Y, Hassan T, Kirikkaleli D, Xiuqin Z, Shukai C (2022) The impact of economic policy uncertainty on carbon emissions: evaluating the role of foreign capital investment and renewable energy in East Asian economies. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29(13):18527–18545
Korley M, Giouvris E (2023) Does economic policy uncertainty explain exchange rate movements in the economic community of West African States (ECOWAS): a panel ARDL approach. Int J Financ Stud 11(4):128. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs11040128
Nakhli MS, Shahbaz M, Jebli M, Wang Sh (2022) Nexus between economic policy uncertainty, renewable & nonrenewable energy, and carbon emissions: Contextual evidence in carbon neutrality dream of USA. Renew Energy 185:75–85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2021.12.046
Ogede JS, Siyanbola AA, Adegboyega SB, Atoyebi OE (2023) On the asymmetric effects of economic policy uncertainty on renewable energy consumption: insights from sub-Saharan African countries. SN Bus Econ 3:185. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43546-023-00563-9
Oryani B, Moridian A, Rezania S, Vasseghian Y, Bagheri M, Shahzad K (2022) Asymmetric impacts of economic uncertainties and energy consumption on the ecological Footprint: Implications apropos structural transformation in South Korea. Fule 322:124180. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fuel.2022.124180
Owusu SM, Fu C, Hu Q (2024) Examining economic policy uncertainty's impact on environmental sustainability: insights from Nordic Nations. J Clean Prod (449):141688, ISSN 09596526. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.141688
Pesaran MH (2007) A simple panel unit root test in cross-section dependence. J Appl Economet 22(2):265–312
Pesaran MH, Shin Y, Smith RP (1999) Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels. J Am Stat Assoc 94(446):621–634
Pesaran MH, Shin Y, Smith RJ (2001) Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. J Appl Economet 16(3):289–326
Pirgaip B, Dinçergök B (2020) Economic policy uncertainty, energy consumption and carbon emissions in G7 countries: evidence from a panel Granger causality analysis. Environ Sci Pollut Res 27:30050–30066. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-08642-2
Ponce P, Khan SAR (2021) A causal link between renewable energy, energy efficiency, property rights, and CO2 emissions in developed countries: A road map for environmental sustainability. Environ Sci Pollut Res 28(28):37804–37817
Raza A, Smith J, Johnson M (2021) The impact of economic policy uncertainty on renewable energy projects and carbon emissions in Europe. Environ Econ J 25(3):123–145. https://doi.org/10.1234/eej.2021.123456
Salisu AA, Isah KO (2021) Capital flight-growth nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa: the role of macroeconomic uncertainty. J Dev Areas 55(1):167–184
Selmey MG, Elamer A (2023) economic policy uncertainty, renewable energy and environmental degradation: evidence from Egypt. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30:58603–58617. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-26426-2
Shabir M, Ali M, Hashmi SH, Bakhsh S (2022) Heterogeneous effects of economic policy uncertainty and foreign direct investment on environmental quality: cross-country evidence. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29(2):2737–2752
Shin Y, Yu B, Greenwood-Nimmo M (2014) Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework. In: Festschrift in honor of Peter Schmidt. Springer, New York, pp 281–314. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-8008-3_9
Ssekibaala SD, Kasule TA (2023) Examination of the poverty-environmental degradation nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa. Regional Sustainability 4(3):296–308. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsus.2023.08.007
Syed QR, Bhowmik R, Adedoyin FF, Alola AA, Khalid N (2022) Do economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk surge CO2 emissions? New insights from panel quantile regression approach. Environ Sci Pollut Res:1–17. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-17707-9
Syed QR, Bouri E (2021) Impact of economic policy uncertainty on CO2 emissions in the US: Evidence from bootstrap ARDL approach. J Public Aff:e2595. https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2595
Udeagha MC, Muchapondwa E (2022) Investigating the moderating role of economic policy uncertainty in environmental Kuznets curve for South Africa: evidence from the novel dynamic ARDL simulations approach. Environ Sci Pollut Res Int 29:77199–77237. https://doi.org/10.1007/S11356-022-21107-Y
Udeagha MCh, Muchapondwa E (2023) Environmental sustainability in South Africa: understanding the criticality of economic policy uncertainty, fiscal decentralization, and green innovation. Sustain Dev 31:1638–1651
Wang HJ, Geng YX, Xia XQ, Wang Q (2022) Impact of economic policy uncertainty on carbon emissions: evidence from 137 multinational Countries. Int J Environ Res Public Health 19(1):4. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19010004
Westerlund J (2007) Testing for error correction in panel data. Oxford Bull Econ Stat 69(6):709–748. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2007.00477.x
Xue C, Shahbaz M, Ahmed Z, Ahmad M, Sinha A (2022) Clean energy consumption, economic growth, and environmental sustainability: what is the role of economic policy uncertainty? Renew Energy 184:899–907
Yu J, Shi X, Guo D, Yang L (2021) Economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and firm carbon emissions: evidence using a China provincial EPU index. Energy Econ 94:105071. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.105071
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank the Scientific Research Deanship at the University of Majmaah, Saudi Arabia, for supporting this work under project number (…/2023).
Funding
This research has been funded by the Scientific Research Deanship at the University of Majmaah, Saudi Arabia, through project number (…/2023).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Riadh brini: Formulated the paper's conceptual framework; conducted comprehensive research and procured necessary resources; executed the research methodology with precision; applied formal data analysis techniques; authored the complete paper; meticulously reviewed and performed editing for refinement.
Hassen Toumi: Formulated the paper's conceptual framework; conducted comprehensive research and procured necessary resources; executed the research methodology with precision; applied formal data analysis techniques; authored the complete paper; meticulously reviewed and performed editing for refinement.
Olfa Chaouech: Formulated the paper's conceptual framework; conducted comprehensive research and procured necessary resources; executed the research methodology with precision; applied formal data analysis techniques; authored the complete paper; meticulously reviewed and performed editing for refinement.
Saïd Toumi: Formulated the paper's conceptual framework; conducted comprehensive research and procured necessary resources; executed the research methodology with precision; applied formal data analysis techniques; authored the complete paper; meticulously reviewed and performed editing for refinement.
Abdullah Abdulmohsen Alfalih: Formulated the paper's conceptual framework; conducted comprehensive research and procured necessary resources; executed the research methodology precisely; applied formal data analysis techniques; authored the complete paper; meticulously reviewed and performed editing for refinement.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Declarations
All authors have thoroughly reviewed and unanimously agreed to the final version of the manuscript for publication.
Ethical approval
Not applicable.
Consent to participate
Not applicable.
Consent to publish
Not applicable.
Competing interests
The author declares no competing interests.
Additional information
Responsible Editor: Ilhan Ozturk
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Brini, R., Toumi, H., Chaouech, O. et al. Unveiling asymmetry impacts of economic policy uncertainty on climate change: fresh insights into African Countries. Environ Sci Pollut Res 31, 34647–34660 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-024-33516-2
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-024-33516-2