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Climatic and topographic controls on glacial changes (1973–2020) in Shigar Basin, Central Karakoram, Northern Pakistan

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Abstract

The Hindukush, Karakorum, and Himalaya (HKH) mountains are often referred to as the “Third Pole” because of high snow, being a major freshwater resource and early indicator of climate change. Therefore, research on the dynamics of glacier changes and their relationship with climate and topographic variability is essential for sustainable water resource management and adaptation strategies in Pakistan. In this contribution, we delineated 187 glaciers and examined these glacier changes in the Shigar Basin from 1973 to 2020 using Corona, Landsat Operational Land Imager/Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus/Thematic Mapper/Multispectral Scanner System (OLI/ETM/TM/MSS), Alaska Satellite Facility (ASF), and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission Digital Elevation Model (SRTM DEM) imageries. The total glacier area decreased from 2796.31 ± 132 km2 in 1973 to 2756.27 ± 63 km2 in 2020 at an average rate of − 0.83 ± 0.03 km2yr−1. Specifically, during the period of 1990–2000, these glaciers shrank most heavily at an average rate of − 2.372 ± 0.08 km2yr−1. In contrast, an increased rate of 0.57 ± 0.02 km2yr−1 in total glacier area was observed during the recent decade (2010–2020). Moreover, the glaciers with gentle slopes retreated less heavily than the steep ones. There was reduction in glacier coverage and length for all slope classes, and a small reduction was observed with gentle slopes, while higher losses were observed on steep slope gradients. The transition of glaciers in the Shigar Basin may be attributed by the direct influence of glacier size and topographical characteristics. By comparing with climate records, our findings suggest that the overall reduction in glacier area from 1973 to 2020 was associated with declining precipitation (− 0.78 mmm/year) and rising temperature (0.045 °C/year) trends in the region, and glacier advances in recent decade (2010–2020) were likely to be driven by increased winter and autumn precipitation.

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Data availability

The datasets used or analyses during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request, and all data generated or analyses during this study are included in this published article.

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Acknowledgements

We also extend our thanks to NASA and USGS for providing the Landsat imageries and to the European Space Agency and Water and Power Development Authority for providing the climate data. Additionally, we would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their valuable feedback in improving this manuscript.

Funding

University recurring research grant of Karakoram International University (KIU), Gilgit, 15100, Pakistan. We would like to express our sincere gratitude to the Higher Education Commission and the University of Baltistan, Skardu, for sponsoring this work.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Geosciences, University of Potsdam, 14469, Potsdam, Germany

    Sajid Ali & Somayeh Kheirandish

  2. GFZ German Research Center for Geosciences, 14473, Potsdam, Germany

    Sajid Ali

  3. University of Baltistan, Skardu, 16100, Pakistan

    Sajid Ali

  4. Department of Earth Sciences, Karakoram International University, Gilgit, 15100, Pakistan

    Garee Khan & Javed Akhter Qureshi

  5. Department of Space Sciences, Institute of Space Technology, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan

    Mujtaba Hassan

  6. Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany

    Sajid Ali

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Contributions

All authors equally contributed from introduction to conclusion under the supervision of our principal investigator, and this task was completed with the collaboration of all authors. Sajid Ali involved in writing the manuscript and the study. Garee Khan developed the main concept of research and supervised the study. Javed Akhter Qureshi collected the field data and help in modification and editing of the writing. Mujtaba Hussain acquired ERA5 dataset, did the processing of climate data and provision of relevant literature, and help in mapping and graph designing. Somayeh Kheirandish involved in analysis, write-up, and review before submission and proofreading of the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Garee Khan.

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Please refer to the article submitted to the Environmental Science and Pollution Research (ESPR) entitled “Climatic and topographic controls on glacial changes (1973–2020) in Shigar basin central Karakoram, northern Pakistan” for publication. As the corresponding author, I undertake on behalf of myself and my co-authors that:

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Ali, S., Khan, G., Qureshi, J.A. et al. Climatic and topographic controls on glacial changes (1973–2020) in Shigar Basin, Central Karakoram, Northern Pakistan. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 74889–74899 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-27648-0

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