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Does lower regional density result in less CO2 emission per capita?

Evidence from prefecture-level administrative regions in China

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Abstract

Regional density is a useful tool for analyzing regional spatial structure as well as a good starting point for analyzing regional CO2 emissions per capita. This paper empirically analyzes the relationship between regional density and per capita CO2 emissions in China’s prefecture-level administrative regions. We improve the CO2 emission measurement method for prefecture-level administrative regions and estimate the per capita CO2 emissions of 252 prefectural-level cities in China from 2003 to 2013. Using panel fixed effect model regression, and taking the terrain roughness index as an instrumental variable to solve endogeneity, we find that the relationship between regional density and per capita CO2 emissions presents in an inverted U-shape, per capita CO2 emissions first increase with the increase of regional density, and after reaching the turning point, it decreases with regional density. In a mechanism test, analyzing the interaction terms between regional density and industrial structure, and regional density and urbanization level respectively. We found that industrial structure and urbanization are important mechanisms for regional density to affect CO2 emissions. In order to reduce per capita CO2 emissions, we propose corresponding policy implications for the regions in different positions of the “U” curve.

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Data availability

The datasets generated and/or analyzed during the current study are not publicly available due to the restriction of data but are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

Notes

  1. Jointly issued by the State Council of China. See http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2018-03/03/content_5270330.htm/.

  2. The prefecture-level region is the second-level region of China’s administrative divisions. It is under the jurisdiction of the provincial administrative region, including 17 prefectures, 30 autonomous prefectures, 283 prefecture-level cities, and three leagues. Prefecture-level cities (PLC) include both cities and counties, which cover rural areas with a vast land area.

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Funding

This study is financially supported by the National Social Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 13BJY091) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.71773083).

National Planning Office of Philosophy and Social Science,13BJY091,National Natural Science Foundation of China,71773083,Yumei Lin

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Author notes

  1. Yumei Lin and Junpei Huang equally contributed to this work.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Marxism, Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, Shanghai, China

    Yumei Lin

  2. School of Economic and Management, Tongji University, Shanghai, China

    Junpei Huang, Meiling Li & Ruofei Lin

Authors
  1. Yumei Lin
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  2. Junpei Huang
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  3. Meiling Li
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  4. Ruofei Lin
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Contributions

Ruofei Lin: Conceptualization, visualization, writing — original draft.

Yumei Lin: Writing, reviewing and editing; supervisor.

Junpei Huang: Formal analysis, data curation, validation.

Meiling Li: Methodology, software.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ruofei Lin.

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The authors declare no competing interests.

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Highlights

• The influence of population density on CO2 emissions per capita is explored.

• We use data of prefecture-level administrative regions in China.

• Terrain roughness index is used as an instrumental variable to solve endogeneity.

• There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between population density and CO2 emissions.

• Industrial structure and urbanization are important mechanisms.

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Lin, Y., Huang, J., Li, M. et al. Does lower regional density result in less CO2 emission per capita?. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29, 29887–29903 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-17884-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-17884-7

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