Abstract
Mangrove and saltmarsh ecosystems appear particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, and their effective management will require forecasts of how these wetland habitats are likely to respond to sea-level rise through the twenty-first century. We describe a preliminary study of a small stand of mangrove and saltmarsh that involves measuring of elevation change and accretion, mapping of wetland communities, and modelling of their potential response to sea-level rise. The wetland occurs on the banks of the Minnamurra River estuary in southern New South Wales and has been the focus of several studies over recent decades. The research includes empirical measurements of sedimentation at sites in both mangrove and saltmarsh vegetation using the surface elevation table-marker horizon technique. This is a site at which mapping has been undertaken to delineate the extent of each vegetation community from a time-series of aerial photographs using geographical information systems; the gradual incursion of the mangrove, Avicennia marina, into more landward saltmarsh communities, observed over past decades for many systems in southeastern Australia, has continued into the twenty-first century. The observed patterns of change are compared with simulations of how this wetland system might respond to future sea-level rise, adopting several different approaches and the upper and lower bounds of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sea-level rise projections. The model results show considerable variability in response depending on the parameters adopted. We advocate the need for the integration of these three approaches, measuring, mapping and modelling, as a basis for future management and adaptation. Our study demonstrates the considerable opportunities to refine the data input and model outputs as part of adaptive management, as more sophisticated technologies and data become available.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Akumu CE, Pathirana S, Baban S, Bucher D (2011) Examining the potential impacts of sea level rise on coastal wetlands in north-eastern NSW, Australia. J Coast Conserv Coast Conserv 15:15–22. doi:10.1007/s11852-010-0114-3
Bloomfield A, Gillanders B (2005) Fish and invertebrate assemblages in seagrass, mangrove, saltmarsh, and nonvegetated habitats. Estuaries Coasts 28:63–77. doi:10.1007/BF02732754
Boorman LA (1999) Salt marshes—present functioning and future change. Mangroves Salt Marshes 3:227–241. doi:10.1023/A:1009998812838
Brinkman RM, Massel SR, Ridd PV, Furukawa K (1997) Surface wave attenuation in mangrove forests. In: Pacific Coasts and Ports ’97, pp 941–946
Cahoon DR, Turner RE (1989) Accretion and canal impacts in a rapidly subsiding wetland II. Feldspar marker horizon technique. Estuaries 12:260–268. doi:10.2307/1351905
Cahoon DR, Day JW Jr, Reed DJ (1999) The influence of surface and shallow subsurface soil processes on wetland elevation: a synthesis. Curr Top Wetl Biogeochem 3:72–88
Cahoon DR, Lynch JC, Hensel P, Boumans R, Perez BC, Segura B, Day JW Jr (2002) High-precision measurements of wetland sediment elevation: I. Recent improvements to the Sedimentation-Erosion Table. J Sediment Res 72:730–733. doi:10.1306/020702720730
Cahoon DR, Hensel PF, Spencer T, Reed DJ, McKee KL, Saintilan N (2006) Coastal wetland vulnerability to relative sea-level rise: wetland elevation trends and process controls. In: Verhoeven JTA, Beltman B, Bobbink R, Whigham DF (eds) Wetlands and natural resource management, vol 190. Ecological studies. Springer, Berlin, pp 271–292
Carne J (1989) Relationships between geomorphology and vegetation in the Minnamurra estuary, NSW. Wetlands (Aust) 8:61–68
Chafer CJ (1998) A spatio-temporal analysis of estuarine vegetation change in the Minnamurra River 1938–1997. Minnamurra Estuary Management Committee
Church J, White N, Aarup T, Wilson W, Woodworth P, Domingues C, Hunter J, Lambeck K (2008) Understanding global sea levels: past, present and future. Sustain Sci 3:9–22. doi:10.1007/s11625-008-0042-4
Clough JS, Park RA, Fuller R (2010) SLAMM 6 beta Technical Documentation, Release 6.0 beta. Warren Pinnacle Consulting, Inc., Warren
Craft C, Clough J, Ehman J, Joye S, Park R, Pennings S, Guo H, Machmuller M (2009) Forecasting the effects of accelerated sea-level rise on tidal marsh ecosystem services. Front Ecol Environ 7:73–78. doi:10.1890/070219
Eslami-Andargoli L, Dale P, Sipe N, Chaseling J (2009) Mangrove expansion and rainfall patterns in Moreton Bay, Southeast Queensland, Australia. Estuar Coast Estuar Coast Shelf Sci 85:292–298. doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2009.08.011
Ewel KC, Twilley RR, Ong JE (1998) Different kinds of mangrove forests provide different goods and services. Glob Ecol Biogeogr Lett 7:83–94
Hunter J (2010) Estimating sea-level extremes under conditions of uncertain sea-level rise. Clim Change 99:331–350. doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9671-6
Keast A (1995) Habitat loss and species loss: the birds of Sydney 50 years ago and now. Aust Zool 30:3–25
Kumara MP, Jaystissa LP, Krauss KW, Phillips DH, Huxham M (2010) High mangrove density enhances surface accretion, surface elevation change, and tree survival in coastal areas susceptible to sea-level rise. Oecologia 164:545–553. doi:10.1007/s00442-010-1705-2
Laegdsgaard P, Johnson CR (1995) Mangrove habitats as nurseries: unique assemblages of juvenile fish in subtropical mangroves in eastern Australia. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 126:67–81. doi:10.3354/meps126067
Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins WD, Friedlingstein P, Gaye AT, Gregory JM, Kitoh A, Knutti R, Murphy JM, Noda A, Raper SCB, Watterson IG, Weaver AJ, Zhao Z-C (2007) Global climate projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M et al (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Nicholls RJ, Cazenave A (2010) Sea-level rise and its impact of coastal zones. Science 328:1517–1520. doi:10.1126/science.1185782
Nicholls RJ, Wong WP, Burkett VR, Codignotto JO, Hay JE, McLean RF, Ragoonaden S, Woodroffe CD (2007) Coastal systems and low-lying areas. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 315–356
Nyman JA, Walters RJ, Delaune RD, Patrick WH Jr (2006) Marsh vertical accretion via vegetative growth. Estuar Coast Shelf Sci 69:370–380
Panayotou K, Woodroffe CD, Jones BG, Chenhall B, McLean E, Heijnis H (2007) Patterns and rates of sedimentary infill in the Minnamurra River estuary, South-Eastern Australia. J Coast Res SI 50:688–692. ISSN 0749.0208
Quartel S, Kroon A, Augustinus PGEF, Van Santen P, Tri NH (2007) Wave attenuation in coastal mangroves in the Red River Delta, Vietnam. J Asian Earth Sci 29:576–584. doi:10.1016/j.jseaes.2006.05.008
Rogers K (2004) Mangrove and saltmarsh surface elevation dynamics in relation to environmental variables in Southeastern Australia. PhD Thesis, University of Wollongong, Wollongong
Rogers K, Saintilan N (2008) Relationships between surface elevation and groundwater in mangrove forests of southeast Australia. J Coast Res 24:63–69. doi:10.2112/05-0519.1
Rogers K, Saintilan N, Cahoon D (2005) Surface elevation dynamics in a regenerating mangrove forest at Homebush Bay, Australia. Wetl Ecol Manag 13:587–598. doi:10.1007/s11273-004-0003-3
Rogers K, Wilton KM, Saintilan N (2006) Vegetation change and surface elevation dynamics in estuarine wetlands of Southeast Australia. Estuar Coast Shelf Sci 66:559–569. doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2005.11.004
Roy PS, Williams RJ, Jones AR, Yassini I, Gibbs PJ, Coates B, West RJ, Scanes PR, Hudson JP, Nichol S (2001) Structure and function of South-east Australian estuaries. Estuar Coast Shelf Sci 53:351–384. doi:10.1006/ecss.2001.0796
Saintilan N (2009) Biogeography of Australian saltmarsh plants. Austral Ecol 34:929–937. doi:10.1111/j.1442-9993.2009.02001.x
Saintilan N, Williams RJ (1999) Mangrove transgression into saltmarsh environments in South-east Australia. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 8:117–124. doi:10.1046/j.1365-2699.1999.00133.x
Saintilan N, Wilton K (2001) Changes in the distribution of mangroves and saltmarshes in Jervis Bay, Australia. Wetl Ecol Manag 9:409–420. doi:10.1023/A:1012073018996
Thomas BE, Connolly RM (2001) Fish use of subtropical saltmarshes in Queensland, Australia: relationships with vegetation, water depth and distance onto the marsh. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 209:275–288. doi:10.3354/meps209275
Van der Moezel PG, Walton CS, Pearce-Pinto GVN, Bell DT (2009) Screening for salinity and waterlogging tolerance in five Casuarina species. Landsc Urban Plan 17:331–337. doi:10.1016/0169-2046(89)90087-X
Vanderzee MP (1988) Changes in saltmarsh vegetation as an early indicator of sea-level rise. In: Pearmen GI (ed) Greenhouse: planning for climate change. CSIRO, Melbourne, pp 147–160
Vermeer M, Rahmstorf S (2009) Global sea level linked to global temperature. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106(51):21527–21532. doi:10.1073/pnas.0907765106
Watkinson K (1998) Design of a program monitoring wetland vegetation at Minnamurra River, NSW. Honours Thesis, University of Wollongong (plus appendices)
Watson PJ (2011) Is there evidence yet of acceleration in mean sea level rise around mainland Australia? J Coast Res 27:368–377. doi:10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-10-00141.1
Williams RJ, Meehan AJ (2004) Focusing management needs at the sub-catchment level via assessments of change in the cover of estuarine vegetation, Port Hacking, NSW, Australia. Wetl Ecol Manag 12:499–518. doi:10.1007/s11273-005-3948-y
Wilton KM, Saintilan N (2000) Protocols for mangrove and saltmarsh habitat mapping. ACU Coastal Wetlands Unit Technical Report 2000/01 produced for the Estuaries Branch. NSW Department of Land and Water Conservation, Sydney
Wolanski E, Chappell J (1996) The response of tropical Australian estuaries to a sea level rise. J Mar Syst 7:267–279. doi:10.1016/0924-7963(95)00002-X
Woodroffe CD (1990) The impact of sea-level rise on mangrove shorelines. Prog Phys Geogr 14:483–520. doi:10.1177/030913339001400404
Acknowledegements
This study is based on an Honours project undertaken by Thomas S. N. Oliver while enrolled at the University of Wollongong. It was funded by a Marine Adaptation Network Honours and Masters Research Support Grant from the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF), awarded by the Adaptation Research Network for Marine Biodiversity and Resources. Special thanks to Neil Saintilan who assisted in the initial construction of the SET-MH sites at Minnamurra.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Oliver, T.S.N., Rogers, K., Chafer, C.J. et al. Measuring, mapping and modelling: an integrated approach to the management of mangrove and saltmarsh in the Minnamurra River estuary, southeast Australia. Wetlands Ecol Manage 20, 353–371 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11273-012-9258-2
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11273-012-9258-2