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Assessing the Effects of Climate Change and Air Pollution on Soil Properties and Plant Diversity in Sugar Maple–Beech–Yellow Birch Hardwood Forests in the Northeastern United States: Model Simulations from 1900 to 2100

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Abstract

Historical deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) over the Eastern United States has impacted ecosystem structure and function. The potential for recovery of ecosystems is relatively uncertain, with deposition paired with future climate change contributing to this uncertainty. The impacts of N and S deposition and climate change (from 1900 to 2100) on two sugar maple–beech–yellow birch sites in the Northeastern United States were evaluated using the paired biogeochemical–vegetation response model ForSAFE-Veg at two research sites, Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest and Bear Brook Watershed. Deposition was found to be the dominant stressor, causing changes in soil acid–base chemistry, N enrichment, and shifts in understory species composition. Responses of the two sites varied due primarily to differences in buffering capacity and levels of deposition. However, at both sites, recovery of soil and plant community properties to 1900 conditions was approached only when future deposition to 2100 was returned to pre-industrial levels. Policy-based reductions in deposition generally halted further damage to soils and plants and resulted in no or only partial recovery. Increased temperatures and precipitation according to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate futures stimulated soil and plant response, thereby accelerating changes in plant communities and N enrichment and counteracting the acidifying impacts of N and S deposition on soil acid–base chemistry.

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Notes

  1. Based on comparison of 30-year averages (1900–1929 and 1983–2012).

  2. The 2030 Tier III scenario represents emission reductions due to regulations implemented under the Clean Air Act (CAA). The base set of regulations include the (1) Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) on power plants, (1a) Renewable Fuel Standard Program (RFS2) Final Rule, (2) solid waste rules for incinerators, (3) Tier II vehicle emission standards for light duty vehicles and On-Road Heavy-Duty Rule for on-road vehicles, (4) the Clean Air Non-road Diesel Rule–Tier 4 and Non-Road Large Spark ignition Engine Rule for non-road vehicles, (5) the Locomotive and Commercial Marine Engine Diesel Rule, (6) Class 3 Marine Emissions Control Area-International Marine Organization (ECA-IMO) standards on NO x and SO x emissions in ports and national waters, and (7) Tier III on-road controls and Tier III fuel sulfur reductions in 2017.

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Acknowledgments

The data for Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF) were largely derived from the datasets of the cooperative Hubbard Brook Ecosystem Study, which is operated and maintained by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service (USFS). The data for Bear Brook Watershed in Maine (BBWM) were derived from datasets from the BBWM research program and publications. The BBWM data have been collected since 1986 with support from the U.S. EPA, U.S. National Science Foundation, U.S. Geological Survey, USFS, the Maine Agricultural and Forest Experiment Station, the Senator George Mitchell Center for Environmental and Watershed Research, and the University of Maine. The project principal investigators are I.J. Fernandez, J.S. Kahl, S.A. Norton, L.E. Rustad, and G.B. Wiersma. The University of Maine has a long-term lease with the International Paper Corporation, the landowner. The authors appreciate the access to these data and would like to specifically acknowledge the extra efforts of Cheryl Spencer in providing the East Bear soil samples, Farrah Fatemi for providing the BBWM soil solution data, Scott Bailey for providing the HBEF soil chemistry data, and Natalie Cleavitt for measuring the understory vegetation in HBEF.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. RTI International, Raleigh, NC, USA

    Jennifer Phelan, Phillip Jones, Jamie Cajka & John Buckley

  2. Belyazid Consulting and Communication AB, Malmö, Sweden

    Salim Belyazid

  3. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA

    Christopher Clark

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  1. Jennifer Phelan
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  2. Salim Belyazid
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  3. Phillip Jones
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Correspondence to Jennifer Phelan.

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This study was funded by the U.S. EPA (contract EP-C-11-036).

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Phelan, J., Belyazid, S., Jones, P. et al. Assessing the Effects of Climate Change and Air Pollution on Soil Properties and Plant Diversity in Sugar Maple–Beech–Yellow Birch Hardwood Forests in the Northeastern United States: Model Simulations from 1900 to 2100. Water Air Soil Pollut 227, 84 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11270-016-2762-x

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